2024 U.S. Elections | Trump wins

I just don't get the math on Trump's positive polls. Given the demographics of his support, I just don't see how his popularity can have increased. I've seen figures on independent support being better today than 4 years ago, but that is just so insane to me that I can't really believe it. It must be that they've just not heard what Trump is saying as it's not all over the news anymore.

I understand the general antipathy towards Biden - share some of it - but in the end the Presidency is still a binary choice. Even the purity warriors on the dems side must see that not voting is going to help a Trump victory. I realise we have some pretty nihilistic posters on here, but I just can't imagine an actual human with some sense believing that their abstaining from voting and causing a second Trump term is a win for them, on some moral level. Like pat yourself on the back while immigrants are deported, Nato falls apart, climate change accelerates, Putin gets more power, the rights of women and minorities are destroyed and so forth.

I find myself having to put faith in those far better informed and smarter than I that are still strong in the belief that Biden is the right candidate to beat Trump. I don't see it, but I'm not a disengaged likely American voter, so my opinion doesn't really matter.
 
Beachryan said:
I just don't get the math on Trump's positive polls. Given the demographics of his support, I just don't see how his popularity can have increased. I've seen figures on independent support being better today than 4 years ago, but that is just so insane to me that I can't really believe it. It must be that they've just not heard what Trump is saying as it's not all over the news anymore.

I understand the general antipathy towards Biden - share some of it - but in the end the Presidency is still a binary choice. Even the purity warriors on the dems side must see that not voting is going to help a Trump victory. I realise we have some pretty nihilistic posters on here, but I just can't imagine an actual human with some sense believing that their abstaining from voting and causing a second Trump term is a win for them, on some moral level. Like pat yourself on the back while immigrants are deported, Nato falls apart, climate change accelerates, Putin gets more power, the rights of women and minorities are destroyed and so forth.

I find myself having to put faith in those far better informed and smarter than I that are still strong in the belief that Biden is the right candidate to beat Trump. I don't see it, but I'm not a disengaged likely American voter, so my opinion doesn't really matter.
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Regarding Trump's polling I listened to a podcast yesterday that made an interesting point regarding his polling in the Republican primaries. They argued that his polling against his Republican challengers, given the fact that he is basically running as an incumbent isn't actually that good. Iowa, for example, is a state he has won twice in the general election, beating both Hillary and Biden pretty convincingly. One could expect a de facto incumbent to have an even bigger lead in red states.
On his polling vs. Biden in the general, Trump has cleverly stayed out of the limelight as much as possible. The Presidential election simply isn't on the radar yet for much of the electorate - many people haven't woken up to the fact that Trump will be the Republican nominee. But of course, the perception of Biden is also a huge problem.

I fully agree with your second paragraph. That kind of nihilistic "burn it all down" approach, based in the fact that Biden isn't perfect, is just asinine and completely irresponsible, in my opinion. These people will be begging for a Biden-like president a few months into Trump's second term, should he get elected.
 
Beachryan said:
Like pat yourself on the back while immigrants are deported, Nato falls apart, climate change accelerates, Putin gets more power, the rights of women and minorities are destroyed and so forth.
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All this stuff happens under Biden.
 
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Iker Quesadillas said:
All this stuff happens under Biden.
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NATO has literally expanded under Biden, and there has been an insurrection attempt against Putin, who has been held to a long stalemate in Ukraine thanks in part to fairly significant support from the U.S. As to the other points, they exist on a scale - no-one can convince it won't be worse under Trump.
 
Sweet Square said:
Your talking to people who don’t care about policy or what happens under a democratic president.

It’s just a waste of time.
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Or just people with the opinion that of the two likely options for President in 2024, Biden seems to be far less objectionable?
 
Mike Smalling said:
Or just people with the opinion that of the two likely options for President in 2024, Biden seems to be far less objectionable?
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There’s isn’t really any less objectionable option. A lot of the points mentioned - immigration, foreign policy and climate change acceleration continue to get worse regardless of who is the president. It’s been like this since the late 70’s

Its basically just me and @berbatrick posting all the awful shit that has happened under the Biden administration but it gets ignored.

If Trump wins then liberals will say it’s fascism and do some photoshoots at the border crying. If Biden wins then conservatives will say America is full of trans communists. The policy regardless will continue to be awful and worse than before.
 
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Sweet Square said:
There’s isn’t really any less objectionable option. A lot of the points mentioned - immigration, foreign policy and climate change acceleration continue to get worse regardless of who is the president. It’s been like this since the 80’s.

Its basically just me and @berbatrick posting all the awful shit that has happened under the Biden administration but it gets ignored.

One of the many depressing things is the American voter has no power over policies such as immigration, foreign policy or climate change.
Things will continue to get worse regardless of the outcome in the next election.
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Maybe so. Plenty of awful stuff has happened under Biden's watch, and some good stuff has happened. In the "Good" column, I'd throw in things like rejoining the Paris Agreement, student debt cancellation (yes, more could be done - some is better than nothing), green energy funding in the IRA, strong support for Ukraine, etc. These are all things that I feel pretty confident would not have happened had Trump been elected in 2020.

Looking at the 2024 Election, I would also still strongly argue that things will be better (or less bad, whatever you like) under Biden than Trump. Biden will at least put sane people in positions of power in the government, while Trump is sure to appoint people that are probably picked out by Stephen Miller and Steve Bannon. Trump would also appoint conservative judges again - the selection of Gorsuch, Barrett and Kavanaugh set back women's rights significantly, and we already seeing the results. And then there is the fact that Trump can just pardon himself if elected, and face no consequences for his obvious crimes.

I just can't wrap my head around being so nihilistic, that you wouldn't still want to see Biden be President again over Trump. If I was an American voter I wouldn't be all excited about voting for Biden, but I'd definitely do it. For this next election voters are faced with three options 1) Vote Biden 2) Vote Trump 3) Vote 3rd party or abstain. I haven't seen any good arguments for not going with 1).
 
Sweet Square said:
There’s isn’t really any less objectionable option.
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You may not have it, but that doesn't mean it doesn't exist. Passed a massive, bipartisan infrastructure bill. Nato is stronger than under Trump (who again has said he will exit on day 1) and is the only thing holding back Russia from just taking Ukraine. Passed student debt relief. The continuation and growth of Obamacare - Trump would rip it apart. Has successfully managed the supply shock of covid and inflation better than just about every other western nation. Unemployment remains at record lows. Literally rejoined the climate agreement Trump pulled out of.

These are just things that have happened. Not opinions.

He's also had the most batsh*t crazy house in history to contend with in the last 2 years, and has subsequentially slowed down the good momentum he had in the first 2. Again, that's US politics.

This not a choice between Biden and someone else. It is a choice between Biden and Donald Trump. The two are simply not the same.
 
Mike Smalling said:
Maybe so. Plenty of awful stuff has happened under Biden's watch, and some good stuff has happened. In the "Good" column, I'd throw in things like rejoining the Paris Agreement, student debt cancellation, green energy funding in the IRA,
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The potential carbon bombs that have came from drilling makes all this pointless imo. It’s also just not enough in general. Which tbh is a out of Biden control(The US Army is a massive polluter for example, can’t expect any US president regardless of ideology to get rid of the army).

Mike Smalling said:
student debt cancellation (yes, more could be done - some is better than nothing)
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Wasn’t it a broken pledge though ? Your right it’s better than nothing but he claimed during the campaigning it was going to be more than what was cancelled.

Mike Smalling said:
strong support for Ukraine,
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About two weeks there was a report that Biden administration policy is changing -

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/12/27/biden-endgame-ukraine-00133211

Which tbh I have no fecking idea if that’s a good or bad thing.
Mike Smalling said:
Looking at the 2024 Election, I would also still strongly argue that things will be better (or less bad, whatever you like) under Biden than Trump. Biden will at least put sane people in positions of power in the government, while Trump is sure to appoint people that are probably picked out by Stephen Miller and Steve Bannon.
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The current sane Biden administration(It worth saying Biden is the most pro Israel politician in the US) is bypassing congress to give bombs to a country committing a genocide. I don’t think the difference between the Stephen Millers and Antony Blinken is all that big.

Mike Smalling said:
Trump would also appoint conservative judges again - the selection of Gorsuch, Barrett and Kavanaugh set back women's rights significantly, and we already seeing the results.
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Agree Trump would likely appoint conservative judges but in terms of women rights the dems have no interest changing the current order. The threat of republicans taking away rights is a core way for democrats to fund raise. It’s not in the party interests to change it. That’s how fecked up the current system is.

Mike Smalling said:
And then there is the fact that Trump can just pardon himself if elected, and face no consequences for his obvious crimes.
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True but insert - Chomsky Crimes of US Presidents video here -

Imo it wouldn’t matter or change anything. US presidents commits acts of evil all the time and get away with it.

Mike Smalling said:
I just can't wrap my head around being so nihilistic, that you wouldn't still want to see Biden be President again over Trump. If I was an American voter I wouldn't be all excited about voting for Biden, but I'd definitely do it. For this next election voters are faced with three options 1) Vote Biden 2) Vote Trump 3) Vote 3rd party or abstain. I haven't seen any good arguments for not going with 1).
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It’s really not nihilism but more looking at the outcomes/policies and seeing the difference aren’t that big. And the changes need to improve both the US and the world go far beyond voting for two very old idiots.
 
Beachryan said:
You may not have it, but that doesn't mean it doesn't exist. Passed a massive, bipartisan infrastructure bill. Nato is stronger than under Trump (who again has said he will exit on day 1) and is the only thing holding back Russia from just taking Ukraine. Passed student debt relief. The continuation and growth of Obamacare - Trump would rip it apart. Has successfully managed the supply shock of covid and inflation better than just about every other western nation. Unemployment remains at record lows. Literally rejoined the climate agreement Trump pulled out of.

These are just things that have happened. Not opinions.

He's also had the most batsh*t crazy house in history to contend with in the last 2 years, and has subsequentially slowed down the good momentum he had in the first 2. Again, that's US politics.

This not a choice between Biden and someone else. It is a choice between Biden and Donald Trump. The two are simply not the same.
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Absolutely this. It's fecking batshit insane to say that it doesn't matter if Biden or Trump is President.

What if Trump actually makes good on his threat to exit NATO and Putin decides to march West? Probably highly unlikely - but what if? A Democratic led USA would come to Europe's aid, Trump's America won't.
 
Basically, the 'there the same picture' meme doesn't apply to this coming presidential election, it's the total inverse. To suggest otherwise is simply incorrect.
 
Sweet Square said:
The potential carbon bombs that have came from drilling makes all this pointless imo. It’s also just not enough in general. Which tbh is a out of Biden control(The US Army is a massive polluter for example, can’t expect any US president regardless of ideology to get rid of the army).


Wasn’t it a broken pledge though ? Your right it’s better than nothing but he claimed during the campaigning it was going to be more than what was cancelled.


About two weeks there was a report that Biden administration policy is changing -

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/12/27/biden-endgame-ukraine-00133211

Which tbh I have no fecking idea if that’s a good or bad thing.

The current sane Biden administration(It worth saying Biden is the most pro Israel politician in the US) is bypassing congress to give bombs to a country committing a genocide. I don’t think the difference between the Stephen Millers and Antony Blinken is all that big.


Agree Trump would likely appoint conservative judges but in terms of women rights the dems have no interest changing the current order. The threat of republicans taking away rights is a core way for democrats to fund raise. It’s not in the party interests to change it. That’s how fecked up the current system is.


True but insert - Chomsky Crimes of US Presidents video here -

Imo it wouldn’t matter or change anything. US presidents commits acts of evil all the time and get away with it.


It’s really not nihilism but more looking at the outcomes/policies and seeing the difference aren’t that big. And the changes need to improve both the US and the world go far beyond voting for two very old idiots.
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So in this case, Not Enough = Trump? Who, by the way, is actually actively undermining democracy.

IMO claiming Biden is the most pro Israel politician in the US is stretching the truth more than just a little bit.

Another concrete difference that doesn't get mentioned enough is the status of abortion in the US, which has been and is a very direct consequence of electing one or the other.
 
Krakenzero said:
IMO claiming Biden is the most pro Israel politician in the US is stretching the truth more than just a little bit.
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Joe Biden disagrees
During a 1992 speech to AIPAC, Biden again voiced support for Israel that made some of its strongest backers uncomfortable. Biden started out by saying that he didn’t think any senator had “ever done more fundraisers for AIPAC,” a group whose supporters were key backers of his 1988 presidential campaign. He then worked himself up to the point where he was shouting and beating his chest for emotional effect as he lambasted an unprecedented public campaignby George H.W. Bush to push Israel toward engaging with Palestinians’ demands for sovereignty and an end to the Israeli military occupation of the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, and other territory seized in the 1967 Arab-Israeli war.
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But Biden has long gone further than many of his fellow Democrats in defense of Israel. As a senator, he backed moving the American embassy to Jerusalem decades before Donald Trump made that a reality, boasted about attending more fundraisers for the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) than any other senator, and savaged an effort by George H.W. Bush to push Israel toward negotiating with Palestinians. As vice president, he undercut Barack Obama’s efforts to push Israel toward peace. As president prior to October 7, he continued policies implemented by Trump that sidelined Palestinians.
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Under Jackson’s influence, Biden could similarly come across as a pro-Israel zealot. In 1982, the year Biden and Benjamin Netanyahu first met, Israel launched an invasion of Lebanon that caused massive civilian casualties. Israel’s tactics in Lebanon as it tried to destroy the Palestine Liberation Organization and empower the country’s Christian minority outraged people in the Arab world and were opposed by key American officials.

In the initial weeks of the war, Prime Minister Menachem Begin came to Washington to consolidate support. Begin, a right-wing leader who Hannah Arendt, Albert Einstein, and other prominent Jews once denounced for running a “Fascist” political party, arrived in Washington facing intense public criticism. Ronald Reagan’s defense secretary, Caspar Weinberger, arguedpublicly that Israel was employing “military force of a kind that we always have deplored.” (Two months later, Regan privately warned the Israeli prime minister that the Lebanon war threatened the “entire” US-Israeli relationship, calling it a “holocaust” whose symbol was “becoming a picture of a 7-month-old baby with its arms blown off.”)

Begin received a warmer welcome from Biden. The New York Times reported at the time that Biden told Begin that he was not critical of the Lebanon invasion. After returning to Israel, Begin provided more detail to the Israeli press by describing how a young senator had given an “impassioned speech” during a private meeting with members of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. Begin said this senator argued that Americans “wouldn’t pay attention as to whether men, women, or children were killed” if they had to retaliate against a comparable attack from Canada. The prime minister claimed that he’d criticized the senator for devaluing civilian life. Subsequent reporting confirmed he was referring to Biden. (A National Security Council spokesperson told me he was looking into this but did not respond after that.)
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https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2023/12/how-joe-biden-became-americas-top-israel-hawk/

 
Not voting for a guy who is enabling genocide is batshit crazy. That's the point we're at.
 
Mike Smalling said:
I just can't wrap my head around being so nihilistic, that you wouldn't still want to see Biden be President again over Trump. If I was an American voter I wouldn't be all excited about voting for Biden, but I'd definitely do it.
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I don't have any issue with people voting for Biden or thinking he's better than Trump (of course he fecking is). What annoys me is this repeated claim that anyone who disagrees is a nihilist.

Talk of "nihilism", or being a "purity warrior", is fine when you're talking about something that ranks low in the morality scale. You are annoyed at someone who doesn't want to vote for Biden because of student loans? You can call them a nihilist, sure. You want to be upset that people would risk Trump because inflation is too high? Be my guest.

But the Israel/Gaza war is not something that ranks low in the morality scale. It is an abomination, fully supported by Biden. It is more important than plenty of the good things that Biden could plausibly do.
 
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Iker Quesadillas said:
I don't have any issue with people voting for Biden or thinking he's better than Trump (of course he fecking is). What annoys me is this repeated claim that anyone who disagrees is a nihilist.
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Maybe it's not the right word. But there are people on here and elsewhere that take the position that they are basically the same, because of Biden's record as President (heavily focusing on his stance on Israel/Gaza), and that it therefore doesn't matter if you vote for him or not come November. Among some there is this mentality that Biden (and by extension moderate Democrats as a whole) will get their comeuppance for his misdeeds, and that will somehow be a good thing. That is what I consider monumentally stupid and cynical.

"Of course Biden is better than Trump" is definitely not the position taken by many online leftists.
 
I don't think that is very cynical in the context of Israel/Gaza, because it's a serious issue.

I would ask you to make a simple reflection: would you be using these terms like "monumentally stupid" or "cynical" if you weren't talking about 'online leftists', but about Palestinian Americans or Arab Americans? If not, then what is the difference?
 
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Iker Quesadillas said:
I don't think that is very cynical in the context of Israel/Gaza, because it's a serious issue.

I would ask you to make a simple reflection: would you be using these terms like "monumentally stupid" or "cynical" if you weren't talking about 'online leftists', but about Palestinian Americans or Arab Americans? If not, then what is the difference?
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You are talking about Biden's approach to Gaza like it is somehow opposed to what it would have been or potentially will be under Trump. If anything Trump probably would have been worse, spurred on by the far right pro-Israeli types that he would be surrounded with. If you are de-selecting Biden because he is pro-Israel, then the implication is that the only alternative will be better - which I don't believe will be the case.
 
Mike Smalling said:
You are talking about Biden's approach to Gaza like it is somehow opposed to what it would have been or potentially will be under Trump. If anything Trump probably would have been worse, spurred on by the far right pro-Israeli types that he would be surrounded with. If you are de-selecting Biden because he is pro-Israel, then the implication is that the only alternative will be better - which I don't believe will be the case.
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Thing is, people are calling folks who don't want to vote for biden all sorts of things. Stupid, naive, nihilists, don't care about democracy, etc. Is it really that crazy that someone doesn't want to vote for a man who is supporting genocide as I type these words?

If a country gets to a point where hundreds of millions will go out and vote for a genocidal leader because the other guy is even worse, then that's a finished country as a functional democracy.
 
maniak said:
Thing is, people are calling folks who don't want to vote for biden all sorts of things. Stupid, naive, nihilists, don't care about democracy, etc. Is it really that crazy that someone doesn't want to vote for a man who is supporting genocide as I type these words?

If a country gets to a point where hundreds of millions will go out and vote for a genocidal leader because the other guy is even worse, then that's a finished country as a functional democracy.
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Yeah, better to vote for the wannabe dictator that attempted a coup, is openly saying he has learnt how to avoid getting caught and will use the DOJ and FBI to maintain power and punish his opponents.
 
Krakenzero said:
So in this case, Not Enough = Trump? Who, by the way, is actually actively undermining democracy.

IMO claiming Biden is the most pro Israel politician in the US is stretching the truth more than just a little bit.

Another concrete difference that doesn't get mentioned enough is the status of abortion in the US, which has been and is a very direct consequence of electing one or the other.
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I had a back and forth on this very topic. Some posters attempted to shame me because I held my daughters reproductive rights over Bidens stance on the Isreal Palestinian conflict when explaining my reasoning for voting democrats over republican. Thing that annoyed me the most was they don't even reside or are eligible to vote in this country.
 
Anyone the has voted for a winning party in a western democracy has most likely voted for a party or candidate that has supported an evil actio somewhere around the world at some point.
 
Laurencio said:
Yeah, better to vote for the wannabe dictator that attempted a coup, is openly saying he has learnt how to avoid getting caught and will use the DOJ and FBI to maintain power and punish his opponents.
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I'll send you 100 quid if you quote me saying anyone should vote for trump
 
maniak said:
I'll send you 100 quid if you quote me saying anyone should vote for trump
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You didn't, but the alternative to voting for the man currently supporting genocide is voting for or handing an advantage to Trump.
 
Laurencio said:
You didn't, but the alternative to voting for the man currently supporting genocide is voting for or handing an advantage to Trump.
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Refusing to vote for someone supporting genocide is not crazy, that's my only point here. You're not stupid or naive or nihilist or anti-democracy if you refuse to vote for biden.

It's not these voters fault america has produced two terrible choices. I'm glad I'm not american because it's the political equivalent of sophie's choice.
 
These they are just the same arguments literally make no sense. Repeated over and over here and they MAKE NO SENSE. The GOP at large literally have no policy other than revenge on libs. All the bicker about in Congress within the GOP Caucus itself is why arent we being MORE punishing, and more vindictive.? Why are we working with Democrats on budgets?! More investigations with no evidence! More hearings on LGBT, or how social media is blocking conservatives.

Even the GOP members that quit and go write books to redeem their image say the exact same thing. Their ex GOP co workers in Congress barely any of them want to actually work and legislate.

Trump going to fight to help Ukraine? He would give it all to Putin if he could.

Israel/Gaza is awful. people are dying it is awful. But, voting for Trump actively will hurt MANY American lives. His dereliction of duty last time by downplaying COVID literally killed people. He has laid out his revenge agenda should he get elected again. The man tried everything he could to not leave office the last time he lost. Letting him get another chance is "just the same"? Ridiculous. Letting him potentially get another SC pick is "just the same". Those decisions effect GENERATIONS. Getting all those poorly educated judges that even bar associations railed against all over the court system will effect peoples lives for decades in this country.

He has literally already been found guilty of massive fraud multiple times and about to get hundreds of millions in punishment handed down to him. But he is "just the same" as the other side? Sophie's Choice my ***
 
maniak said:
Refusing to vote for someone supporting genocide is not crazy, that's my only point here. You're not stupid or naive or nihilist or anti-democracy if you refuse to vote for biden.

It's not these voters fault america has produced two terrible choices. I'm glad I'm not american because it's the political equivalent of sophie's choice.
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They made them the candidates via primaries where there were plenty of alternative choices so it is the voters fault
 
Hamnat said:
These they are just the same arguments literally make no sense. Repeated over and over here and they MAKE NO SENSE. The GOP at large literally have no policy other than revenge on libs. All the bicker about in Congress within the GOP Caucus itself is why arent we being MORE punishing, and more vindictive.? Why are we working with Democrats on budgets?! More investigations with no evidence! More hearings on LGBT, or how social media is blocking conservatives.

Even the GOP members that quit and go write books to redeem their image say the exact same thing. Their ex GOP co workers in Congress barely any of them want to actually work and legislate.

Trump going to fight to help Ukraine? He would give it all to Putin if he could.

Israel/Gaza is awful. people are dying it is awful. But, voting for Trump actively will hurt MANY American lives. His dereliction of duty last time by downplaying COVID literally killed people. He has laid out his revenge agenda should he get elected again. The man tried everything he could to not leave office the last time he lost. Letting him get another chance is "just the same"? Ridiculous. Letting him potentially get another SC pick is "just the same". Those decisions effect GENERATIONS. Getting all those poorly educated judges that even bar associations railed against all over the court system will effect peoples lives for decades in this country.

He has literally already been found guilty of massive fraud multiple times and about to get hundreds of millions in punishment handed down to him. But he is "just the same" as the other side? Sophie's Choice my ***
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Very solid post.

If I go any further on the Israel/Gaza conflict, I say a second Trump presidency would make matters worse because there would be no talks about scaling down military operations or protecting civilians. Heck, I dare to say that Trump would show no objection to Netanyahu's actions while using harsher language against Palestinians at home and over there. Trump and Netanyahu are the type of people who will cyclejerk themselves for the sake of staying in power and avoid prison time at any cost. Before the conflict, we have to remember that Netanyahu sparked months-long protests because of proposed reforms to limit the power of the supreme court in favor of the PM's office (or the parliament).

As for the home front, I don't think I need more examples of how that sick feck wants to be a dictator pissing on the Constitution for the sake of punishing anyone and anything he does not like. Just the blatant lack of respect he has shown towards Judge Engoron and AG Laetitia James in the last couple of days is very indicative of how he feels about laws, norms and decorum.
 
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