2024 U.S. Elections | Trump v Harris

Yes, and surrogacy can be even more.

That’s why I was utterly baffled that it took until the last 10 days of the election for a high profile Democratic surrogate to make that case (Michelle Obama) and it was very well received, so it must have tested well as well.
Some did make that point before, but it certainly wasn’t made in a forceful and consistent way. A missed opportunity there.

I was baffled sometimes that IVF wasn’t put the following way: “look, couples rather have children without any help. But sometimes they need, and IVF is kind of last resort. No one wants to pay this much money, but people have no choice sometimes and they pay it. It shows how much they want to be parents.”
 
remind me which day I will be calling in sick after pulling an all nighter?
Unless early returns in Florida show a blue wave, race probably won’t be called until you’ve woken up on Wednesday morning UK, at the very least. Milwaukee won’t report until 2/3a.m East Coast, that’s like 6/7 am UK.
 
Unless early returns in Florida show a blue wave, race probably won’t be called until you’ve woken up on Wednesday morning UK, at the very least. Milwaukee won’t report until 2/3a.m East Coast, that’s like 6/7 am UK.
probably Wednesday and maybe Thursday
So it’s most of Wednesday night I’ll be tuned into Fox News?
 
Republicans passed a law in NC that prevents the counting of early votes until AFTER the polls close on Tuesday, so expect delays coming out of my state.
 

This is my biggest worry for this election, I am quietly confident that Harris will win, but very worried that it maybe so close in some places that legal challenges quickly end up in the supreme court and they rule in favour of the orange turd.
 


Last Marist poll for the Midwest, probably one more round of Sun Belt and/or national.

Essentially same as other in terms of it being a MoE race, but has Harris hitting 50 in all 3.

The district polling is the only thing worth looking at. For example if Harris is up in Northampton and Erie in PA she'll most likely win the state.
 
This is my biggest worry for this election, I am quietly confident that Harris will win, but very worried that it maybe so close in some places that legal challenges quickly end up in the supreme court and they rule in favour of the orange turd.

It' fries my brain that the supreme court can be so politicised. Surely it, above all else should be apolitical and beholden only to the constitution and balance?
 
It' fries my brain that the supreme court can be so politicised. Surely it, above all else should be apolitical and beholden only to the constitution and balance?

Yeah, well, clearly things in the US aren’t as they should be.
 
ive given up looking at polls. We are inundated with polls showing differing results from the same areas but impossible to know which to believe and which might be slanted one way or the other
Harris campaign senior advisor



Dems are likely seeing something similar in their internal data. Trump and some of the MAGA cult have been melting down recently over PA. They are clearly seeing things they don't like.
 
This is what you call sophistication? This is just them looking out for their own selfish interests. That Trump supporter who has 200 employees is a millionaire so he is pissed about having to pay an extra 6-7% in corporate taxes and the fact that people are joining unions. Thats not “sophisticated”. Call it as it is - Selfish!

Ok well this isnt a new situation. Multiple presidents have had this problem and it’s not going away in the next 4 years. It isn’t a new problem that Biden created. Btw let’s talk about deportation of illegal immigrants - Obama and Biden have deported more illegal aliens than Trump did. Trump deported 1.5m illegals. Obama deported 3m illegals and Biden has deported more than the 1.5m that Trump deported.

Again this isn’t sophistication - this is backward belief based on “god”. This whole 6 week abortion ban is ridiculous cause some of the women wont know if they are pregnant until week 8.

I come back to this point - they are doing it all of selfish interests. Ask them to name one policy of his and they won’t be able to cause he isn’t running on one.

You are allowed to have a beer with whoever you like but this isn’t any normal election. If McCain or Romney was running I’d prolly vote for them over Harris but this is a fascist running and you don’t vote for this man especially after the rhetoric they have heard.

This rhetoric isn’t even half the problem. Half of them prolly don’t give a shit about Project 2025 or the fact that Musk and RFK Jr are going to be so involved in the admin. There is so much harm that is going to be done in the next 4 years and they are fine voting for a fascist cause they get to save a few bucks on taxes? I find that completely ridiculous.

So you're replying to an old convo here that started with you posting comedy videos of red had Trump supports, which was your way of saying all Trump supporters are dumb and vote against they own interest. Lazy stereotyping.

You can be sophisticated and selfish. You don't get to employ hundreds of people by being a dumb mouth breather.

Re the Border. Yes, old issue that the Biden administration has made worse. There is no metric in Bidens favour here...
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-61989673

You would have voted for McCain or Romney? Both would have put very conservative judges into the SCOTUS who in turn would have struck down Roe. So weird that you believe its a "backward belief based on “god" yet willing to vote for any Republican?
 
Abortion in general should be framed as the biggest economic issue for both women and men because the cost of raising a child/child support will have a bigger effect on your personal finance than any temporary tax cuts, for the vast majority of people. And if you have an unplanned one, your earning power can be severely limited in your most productive years due to work/edu opportunities.

I’m not sure that framing what is in essence an incredibly emotive topic for both sides as a financial one is really going to move the needle for people.

If you believe abortion is killing a human being, regardless of when your cut off for that is, someone telling you it’s gonna save money isn’t going to sway them (understandably so).

Similarly, I’m pretty sure most pro choice people are not coming from the angle of cost savings either.
 
This kind of argument irks me. As if one of the major lessons of WW2 wasn’t that ordinary people are capable of propping up and even executing horrendous cruelty. Good, honest family people can do some terrible shit. Not saying Trump will set up camps, but yeah, this kind of argument is weak.

The ones who are pro life out of religious reasons should ask themselves why they are supporting a party that wants to supress sex ed and birth control when those are some of the best ways to lower abortion rates. They’re more motivated by self-interest and sanctimony than by actual concern for outcomes.

So as a Norwegian, perhaps you don't understand the media ecosystem here in the US.

There are people that watch certain news networks and have algorithms in their social media that will tell them that black is white and up is down. They have been told that Democrats are evil for the past 15 + years. There is no doubt that they have been brainwashed. I have seen vidoes in the past where a Fox News viewer watches CNN for an hour and they literally think that everything they are being told is a lie.

Many are vulnerable and the rhetoric directly appeals to them as they may not be doing well in their lives. Just like how Hitler capitalised on the financial hardships of Germans post WW1.

There will be over 70 mil people that vote for Trump in this election.

What is your suggestion? Disown these people? Ignore them? Don't mix with them?
Surely that only servers to further divide the country and create even more polarization for the next wannabe fascist dictator to exploit. My fear is the next one will be far smarter the Trump. He will be able to use the same playbook, just without putting his foot in his mouth at every turn. If that happens, we are really in the sh1t because this country is ripe for it.

This is my take, but for what it is worth, my wife has the same feelings as you. She is at the point where she wont mix with any Trump supporter.
 
So you're replying to an old convo here that started with you posting comedy videos of red had Trump supports, which was your way of saying all Trump supporters are dumb and vote against they own interest. Lazy stereotyping.

You can be sophisticated and selfish. You don't get to employ hundreds of people by being a dumb mouth breather.

Re the Border. Yes, old issue that the Biden administration has made worse. There is no metric in Bidens favour here...
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-61989673

You would have voted for McCain or Romney? Both would have put very conservative judges into the SCOTUS who in turn would have struck down Roe. So weird that you believe it’s a "backward belief based on “god" yet willing to vote for any Republican?
I still hold that notion. Just cause you know two people who are “sophisticated” it doesn’t change. Majority of them are actual racists and what ever is left are rich people who are selfish and look out for their own interests, who very well know he is fascist, he is terrible all things in their life except their back pockets, yet vote for him anyway. Your golf buddies will fall into bucket 2.

As for MCCain or Romney, firstly I didn’t say I would definitely vote for them. It’s based on policy. Secondly i brought up their names to show it could have been a closer choice between two candidates had the choices been different. It wasn’t literal.
 
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I’m not sure that framing what is in essence an incredibly emotive topic for both sides as a financial one is really going to move the needle for people.

If you believe abortion is killing a human being, regardless of when your cut off for that is, someone telling you it’s gonna save money isn’t going to sway them (understandably so).

Similarly, I’m pretty sure most pro choice people are not coming from the angle of cost savings either.

Hard to feel any hope about rational discussion when states like Florida have no qualms with ruling out abortion in the case of even ectopic pregnancies that don’t even have a chance of resulting in a baby. Clearly rational appeal isn’t what’s going to turn it around.
 
I’m not sure that framing what is in essence an incredibly emotive topic for both sides as a financial one is really going to move the needle for people.

If you believe abortion is killing a human being, regardless of when your cut off for that is, someone telling you it’s gonna save money isn’t going to sway them (understandably so).

Similarly, I’m pretty sure most pro choice people are not coming from the angle of cost savings either.
You frame it along the emotive angle, it doesn't need to be either/or.
 
So as a Norwegian, perhaps you don't understand the media ecosystem here in the US.

There are people that watch certain news networks and have algorithms in their social media that will tell them that black is white and up is down. They have been told that Democrats are evil for the past 15 + years. There is no doubt that they have been brainwashed. I have seen vidoes in the past where a Fox News viewer watches CNN for an hour and they literally think that everything they are being told is a lie.

Many are vulnerable and the rhetoric directly appeals to them as they may not be doing well in their lives. Just like how Hitler capitalised on the financial hardships of Germans post WW1.

There will be over 70 mil people that vote for Trump in this election.

What is your suggestion? Disown these people? Ignore them? Don't mix with them?
Surely that only servers to further divide the country and create even more polarization for the next wannabe fascist dictator to exploit. My fear is the next one will be far smarter the Trump. He will be able to use the same playbook, just without putting his foot in his mouth at every turn. If that happens, we are really in the sh1t because this country is ripe for it.

This is my take, but for what it is worth, my wife has the same feelings as you. She is at the point where she wont mix with any Trump supporter.

Deep down I know you talk a lot of sense, and you're probably right. That said, I'm with your wife. If any of my friends came out as a Trump supporter (and although they are in the minority in Norway there are still quite a few) I'd drop them like a bad habit.
 
So as a Norwegian, perhaps you don't understand the media ecosystem here in the US.

There are people that watch certain news networks and have algorithms in their social media that will tell them that black is white and up is down. They have been told that Democrats are evil for the past 15 + years. There is no doubt that they have been brainwashed. I have seen vidoes in the past where a Fox News viewer watches CNN for an hour and they literally think that everything they are being told is a lie.

Many are vulnerable and the rhetoric directly appeals to them as they may not be doing well in their lives. Just like how Hitler capitalised on the financial hardships of Germans post WW1.

There will be over 70 mil people that vote for Trump in this election.

What is your suggestion? Disown these people? Ignore them? Don't mix with them?
Surely that only servers to further divide the country and create even more polarization for the next wannabe fascist dictator to exploit. My fear is the next one will be far smarter the Trump. He will be able to use the same playbook, just without putting his foot in his mouth at every turn. If that happens, we are really in the sh1t because this country is ripe for it.

This is my take, but for what it is worth, my wife has the same feelings as you. She is at the point where she wont mix with any Trump supporter.

Thanks for the little rundown but I’ve lived in the US, in Texas among Bush jr voters, and have since then followed its media landscape closely for over 20 years, so I’m well aware of these things.

I’m just giving some pushback to what I perceived as a way of making these movements and/or its supporters seem benign, amid all this talk of sophistication and good intent. Apologies if I’ve misread your intent on that score.

I don’t have any suggestions, I’m at a loss to be honest. Obviously pretending like it’s just a good-natured disagreement and that’s just politics and it’ll all work out isn’t the way to go, neither is increased hostility and polarization. I imagine things will just have to get a lot worse before the pendulum swings, but clearly ensuring that Trump doesn’t get a second term is quite crucial for the US and the world at large at this juncture. Putin and climate change alone are areas where he can contribute very negatively to the world, let alone the possibility of him making good on his fascistic talk.
 
Thanks for the little rundown but I’ve lived in the US, in Texas among Bush jr voters, and have since then followed its media landscape closely for over 20 years, so I’m well aware of these things.

I’m just giving some pushback to what I perceived as a way of making these movements and/or its supporters seem benign, amid all this talk of sophistication and good intent. Apologies if I’ve misread your intent on that score.

I don’t have any suggestions, I’m at a loss to be honest. Obviously pretending like it’s just a good-natured disagreement and that’s just politics and it’ll all work out isn’t the way to go, neither is increased hostility and polarization. I imagine things will just have to get a lot worse before the pendulum swings, but clearly ensuring that Trump doesn’t get a second term is quite crucial for the US and the world at large at this juncture. Putin and climate change alone are areas where he can contribute very negatively to the world, let alone the possibility of him making good on his fascistic talk.
This is 100% where I am at right now. It's a really hard place to be where there is seemingly no way to bring the MAGA side back down to some basis of reality.
 
So as a Norwegian, perhaps you don't understand the media ecosystem here in the US.

There are people that watch certain news networks and have algorithms in their social media that will tell them that black is white and up is down. They have been told that Democrats are evil for the past 15 + years. There is no doubt that they have been brainwashed. I have seen vidoes in the past where a Fox News viewer watches CNN for an hour and they literally think that everything they are being told is a lie.

Many are vulnerable and the rhetoric directly appeals to them as they may not be doing well in their lives. Just like how Hitler capitalised on the financial hardships of Germans post WW1.

There will be over 70 mil people that vote for Trump in this election.

What is your suggestion? Disown these people? Ignore them? Don't mix with them?
Surely that only servers to further divide the country and create even more polarization for the next wannabe fascist dictator to exploit. My fear is the next one will be far smarter the Trump. He will be able to use the same playbook, just without putting his foot in his mouth at every turn. If that happens, we are really in the sh1t because this country is ripe for it.

This is my take, but for what it is worth, my wife has the same feelings as you. She is at the point where she wont mix with any Trump supporter.
As I've said numerous times in here - the media is the single largest reason this is all happening.

There is a non-zero chance that RFK Jr. is going to be in charge of vaccines in the US in a few months. This is a man who literally doesn't believe the science, or doctors, or evidence or anything sensical whatsoever, but is just going with his gut. His decisions will literally kill thousands if not more babies and children if he gets his way.

And Fox News would nod along with it. Find a panel of autistic kids and ask if they've had an vaccines. Create a 'panel' where you have experts on both sides, despite 99% of credible doctors being on one side.

Without Fox News and its ilk, the US would be unrecognisable. Certainly Trump would have had no chance.

The rights media ecosystem is what props up this idiocy, by simply not reporting the truth. Its literal defence when pressed on why it was knowingly lying to the public about the election was that it is an entertainment company, and no serious person should trust it for news. You know who doesn't know that fact? Fox News watchers.

Today's America is fundamentally built on the believe that because they've made it this far, any and all guard rails aren't needed because we haven't blown ourselves up yet. And guard rails aren't American.
 
This is called a strawman argument. You create a point that doesn't exist (not in Onenil's post, at least) and then attack it. The doubling down is good, too. But the fact remains that Onenil didn't try to absolve anyone, they were only saying that both Biden/Harris and Trump being terrible (or disgusting, to satisfy Dumbo) for the Israel/Palestine situation doesn't mean that they're both equally terrible (or disgusting). Are you suggesting that's not true?

(And since you seem to need that sort of comment, I'll make clear that I'm not denying that Israel is enacting a genocide in Gaza.)

Yeah, it's fecking not, and no, I fecking don't.

He's absolutely trying to water down Biden's administration criminal handling of 10/7 by downplaying it through the now all too common trope "Yeah it sucks, but a Trump administration would've been even way worse". As if it were true or some kind of badge of honor worth wearing.

Here are his exact words.
While it might be completely unsatisfactory [the official 45k Palestinian deaths], I do think the Biden admin is exerting more pressure behind the scenes than a Trump admin would have given Trump's actions as President.

The truth is that there's been absolutely no pressure whatsoever from the Biden administration, which has steadily supplied weapons and provided constant diplomatic cover (It used four vetoes in favor of Israel at the UNSC in less than a year and doing its hardest to prevent the issue of a warrant against Netanyahu and Gallant). Every single so-called "red line" drawn by Biden have been joyfully violated by Israel without any kind of repercussions. On the contrary, weapons and money kept flowing at a rate completely unheard of since 1948, date of the creation of the State of Israel.

This despite multiple nazi-like declarations and actions taken by eminent members of the most extremist, ultra-right Israeli government in history which were either ignored or downplayed by the likes of Blinken, Miller, Kirby and other assholes currently festering the White House.

Even better, a certified supremacist war criminal was officially invited to the Congress to take a royal shit on the US and American citizens protesting against his handling of Gaza, with both Democrats and Republicans cheering on and gleefully bending over to take God's chosen penis up their behind.

The Biden administration has agreed to and supported everything Israel's done since 10/7, and that includes the invasion of Lebanon and the strikes on Iran, despite the ongoing genocide in Gaza and the risks of a full-blown regional war. It sent a former IDF soldier born in Jerusalem (Amos Hochstein), as a "special envoy" for the United States in the Middle-East. How this guy got a security clearance and access to such a key position in the US administration is beggars belief. Or not.

That's what the Biden administration is and what it will be remembered for. That's what Kamala Harris is part of, and she never even remotely tried to put any kind of distance from it. Anyone believing in Kamala magically finding her shining armor and white horse to set Israel straight after the elections, is either deluded or an absolute cretin.

So no, for anyone who has closely followed the situation in the region, it's hard to think how Trump would've gotten it worse, aside from a "nuke them all" which would've prompted an instant rebuke from the whole world and I'm fairly certain that even the orange psychopath wouldn't let it go that far.


On a side note, words matter. I find the use of "unsatisfactory" absolutely despicable. It tells volumes about the poster's mindset and his view on the conflict. It's even more disheartening because he's certainly not a braindead MAGA supporter. I've read and appreciated many of his posts on other matters.

However he's not the first poster whose brain crashes to desktop when it comes to Israel. There's plenty of otherwise great posters on the CAF trending the same way.
 
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I still hold that notion. Just cause you know two people who are “sophisticated” it doesn’t change. Majority of them are actual racists and what ever is left are rich people who are selfish and look out for their own interests, who very well know he is fascist, he is terrible all things in their life except their back pockets, yet vote for him anyway. Your golf buddies will fall into bucket 2.

As for MCCain or Romney, firstly I didn’t say I would definitely vote for them. It’s based on policy. Secondly i brought up their names to show it could have been a closer choice between two candidates had the choices been different. It wasn’t literal.

I know many Republicans who are not the Red Hat racist you wish to portray. You stay in your echochamber and believe what you wish. Keep watching your Comedy Central clips of comedians laughing at miseducated people outside Trump rallies and let that form your opinion.

But don't be outraged when the right wants to paint every Democrat as an ANTIFA member.

You said...
If McCain or Romney was running I’d prolly vote for them over Harris

Prolly means more than likely. Which in this case you would be voting for Roe to be overturned, had it not been already. There are not many US Senators that are more pro-life than Romney.
 
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As I've said numerous times in here - the media is the single largest reason this is all happening.

There is a non-zero chance that RFK Jr. is going to be in charge of vaccines in the US in a few months. This is a man who literally doesn't believe the science, or doctors, or evidence or anything sensical whatsoever, but is just going with his gut. His decisions will literally kill thousands if not more babies and children if he gets his way.

And Fox News would nod along with it. Find a panel of autistic kids and ask if they've had an vaccines. Create a 'panel' where you have experts on both sides, despite 99% of credible doctors being on one side.

Without Fox News and its ilk, the US would be unrecognisable. Certainly Trump would have had no chance.

The rights media ecosystem is what props up this idiocy, by simply not reporting the truth. Its literal defence when pressed on why it was knowingly lying to the public about the election was that it is an entertainment company, and no serious person should trust it for news. You know who doesn't know that fact? Fox News watchers.

Today's America is fundamentally built on the believe that because they've made it this far, any and all guard rails aren't needed because we haven't blown ourselves up yet. And guard rails aren't American.

Completely agree. Murdoch and Fox News are the biggest reason for the divided nation we see today. Trump and others who follow him, have capitalised on the division that Fox News has created. Social Media has made that division even worse and will continue to do so.

Vilify Trump followers all you want, but you have to understand the way these peoples mindsets have been shaped over the last 15+ years.
 
Yes, and surrogacy can be even more.

That’s why I was utterly baffled that it took until the last 10 days of the election for a high profile Democratic surrogate to make that case (Michelle Obama) and it was very well received, so it must have tested well as well.
And if you don't have insurance the regular way costs over $30K
 
It really does feel like he’s setting the stage to say that the election was stolen if he loses. No idea what will happen if he does do that, but it really feels like that is what is going to happen.
January 6th type events, although perhaps on a smaller scale, and a ton of lawsuits in the swing states that Trump lost.
 
This is my biggest worry for this election, I am quietly confident that Harris will win, but very worried that it maybe so close in some places that legal challenges quickly end up in the supreme court and they rule in favour of the orange turd.
They didn't last time, why should this time be different?
 
I know many Republicans who are not the Red Hat racist you wish to portray. You stay in your echochamber and believe what you wish. Keep watching your Comedy Central clips of comedians laughing at miseducated people outside Trump rallies and let that form your opinion.

But don't be outraged when the right wants to paint every Democrat as an ANTIFA member.

You said...


Prolly means more than likely. Which in this case you would be voting for Roe to be overturned, had it not been already. There are not many US Senators that are more pro-life than Romney.
Firstly let’s get one thing straight - I never said if you’re republican you are racist. It applies specifically to voting for Donald Trump.

You might think your friends aren’t racist for voting for Trump, but they are rich and don’t care about literally anything except keeping more of their money.

Prolly doesn’t mean more than likely. It could be possibility, maybe, perhaps, a chance. That’s wasn’t enough information in that sentence for you to make that inference. That’s what I clarified it by saying it based on policy.
 
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It really does feel like he’s setting the stage to say that the election was stolen if he loses. No idea what will happen if he does do that, but it really feels like that is what is going to happen.
He did this in 2016 too when he won, it means little.
 
He doesn't have a point because it was very much meant to be a threat (even if it could also have the meaning you ascribe to it) to pander to his base. And even if true the irony coming from the orange draft dodger is .....

In no way is Trump calling for Liz Cheney to be executed. If you watch the video he is ironically asking if she would be such a fanatical war hawk if she suddenly found herself facing the combat situation he describes.

But of course, the media is portraying this as him threatening to assassinate political opponents. This is a significant misrepresentation of what Trump said—the sort of misrepresentation that has been common since 2016 and has undermined the credibility of liberal critics of Trump (despite there being much to criticize).
 
Similarly, I’m pretty sure most pro choice people are not coming from the angle of cost savings either.
IVF is very “pro-life” (not a fan of these terms, but just for the sake of the argument), and it’s very expensive. And so while these decisions go beyond the financial considerations, the latter remain important.

You often hear people saying “children are costly”. And so the financial cost is a factor.

(You also hear a lot “I don’t want to bring kids into this world”… the national spirit hasn’t been in a good place for years now)

It really does feel like he’s setting the stage to say that the election was stolen if he loses. No idea what will happen if he does do that, but it really feels like that is what is going to happen.
That’s a forgone conclusion.