2024 U.S. Elections | Trump v Harris

mariachi-19 said:
Absolutely this has just murdered Trump. They’re now in damage control but he’s fecked. Absolutely they have just screwed the pooch.
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This isn't even the worst thing that's happened during a Trump campaign, he'll be fine unfortunately.
 
Beachryan said:
We're now at the stage where it's one of two things:
1. A comfortable Trump victory
2. A massive polling error

Personally I just have to bury myself in soft, fluffy clouds of the latter.

Imo those blaming Harris just don't understand enough about American politics, and how Trump's popularity has bounced. In just over 100 days she has gone from being completely underwater on favourability to massively ahead of Trump. She certainly isn't a generational change candidate - like Obama (or Sanders would have been) - but she is an intelligent, qualified, 'safe pair of hands' that can manage the most powerful nation on Earth at a very uncertain time. She's also non-white and female - if she is elected that in of itself is hugely significant. If she were the leader of any random European nation no-one would bat an eye.

If Trump wins - and wins like the polls suggest, hugely - no Democratic candidate could have beaten him. That's result of the media ecosystem above all things.

The only positive I can draw from this is that the status quo has to change from the perspective of actual democracy. A Trump victory built off the back of pure disinformation should see some kind of reaction. Of cousre, his actual Presidency coverage will also be part of that - when he inevitably fails to deliver literally any benefit to his voters and tariffs are either blocked by people that understand economics or go through and ruin the economy.

I've posted before that I'm not sure how incumbents win in today's media space. There is no longer a collective memory, or even desire to understand the chain of events that lead to the current moment. You can get elected simply by attacking what is - whether true or not - and there is no push back on how you would realistically change it. It reminds me so much of high school elections: if you run a campaign of stopping homework, no school on Fridays and pizza everyday you will win.
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The polls have been hopelessly gamed due to the Republicans "flooding the zone" with dubious polls. The aggregators are saying they are not weighting those polls as much as more reputable ones, but they should not be weighting them at all. The mere act of allowing that data in corrupt the results.

I think Harris will win. Trump's hardcore base loves him, but everyone else hates him. He has done nothing to make inroads into groups that shunned him in 2016 and 2020. In 2016, he faced a uniquely unlikable candidate who also had James Comey dropping the bomb on her days before the election. Trump at that time was a novelty act.

In 2020 everyone knew what Trump was all about. Biden won and built a coalition of union, blacks, etc., and despite losing some of those numbers, they are not moving in droves to Trump. Democratic registrations are up and Democratic voters outnumber the Republican ones by several million. The ground game this time far surpasses what we saw in 2020. The only indicator that this is a close race is because the dubious polls thrown into the mix.
Cheimoon said:
That's the same thing really. $15 is half the price from $30, with the .99/.88 to make it seem less. It just seems like a reach to me. Some people have these number things on their mind way too much. (Can't do 18 either: that's AH.)

I'm obviously not interested in defending Liddell, but I hate how the idiots get to take over everyday stuff like specific numbers, and then 'we' let them by hunting for their occurrence. If we don't do that, this shit doesn't get the air time and its impact is much less.
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I have never seen a product advertised with .88 at the end. Never. And when you have a $14 at the front, it actually is a dog whistle for those so inclined.
 
mariachi-19 said:
Absolutely this has just murdered Trump. They’re now in damage control but he’s fecked. Absolutely they have just screwed the pooch.
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Trump 2016 had grab them by their p*** news come out few days before the elections and nothing happened. Nobody cares anymore. Post 2016, the bar is really low.
 
The reason they are flooding the zone with garbage polls is to sow the seeds for claiming the election was rigged. They will say "look how the polls had Trump up everywhere", and they will hoping someone less honest than Brad Raffensperger is in charge this time.

I truly believe Harris has this in the bag.
 
mariachi-19 said:
Absolutely this has just murdered Trump. They’re now in damage control but he’s fecked. Absolutely they have just screwed the pooch.
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What worries me is that to come out and be blatantly racist like this infront of the whole world, they must be very confident they already have this election in the bag.

Or can the Trump campaign just not control their herd?
 
Wing Attack Plan R said:
The polls have been hopelessly gamed due to the Republicans "flooding the zone" with dubious polls. The aggregators are saying they are not weighting those polls as much as more reputable ones, but they should not be weighting them at all. The mere act of allowing that data in corrupt the results.

I think Harris will win. Trump's hardcore base loves him, but everyone else hates him. He has done nothing to make inroads into groups that shunned him in 2016 and 2020. In 2016, he faced a uniquely unlikable candidate who also had James Comey dropping the bomb on her days before the election. Trump at that time was a novelty act.

In 2020 everyone knew what Trump was all about. Biden won and built a coalition of union, blacks, etc., and despite losing some of those numbers, they are not moving in droves to Trump. Democratic registrations are up and Democratic voters outnumber the Republican ones by several million. The ground game this time far surpasses what we saw in 2020. The only indicator that this is a close race is because the dubious polls thrown into the mix.

I have never seen a product advertised with .88 at the end. Never. And when you have a $14 at the front, it actually is a dog whistle for those so inclined.
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Agree on the polls. IDK why aggregators are allowing them in. Real Clear Politics dont weigh them.
Hope you are right re who is going to win.

Shitting on Puerto Rico could really hurt them in the next week. I hope Bad Bunny gets more vocal about it. The guy has major influence.
 
gaffs said:
What worries me is that to come out and be blatantly racist like this infront of the whole world, they must be very confident they already have this election in the bag.

Or can the Trump campaign just not control their herd?
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I think they’re not self aware about it. They do not see themselves as racist and do not hear racism when someone says what was said today.
 
Blood Mage said:
This isn't even the worst thing that's happened during a Trump campaign, he'll be fine unfortunately.
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Hillary lost because dems didn’t vote… they are certainly voting this time and he’s just pissed off a huge group of people who he needs to win.

It may be the most ironic thing in the history of his political career that the words that sink him didn’t come from his mouth.
 
I love that Vance tells Tapper “he wasn’t talking about Americans” with the “enemies within” comment, and then Trump comes out tonight and clarifies that yes, that’s exactly who he’s talking about.
 
Fecking hell, the tweets from that rally are something else. I know this has probably been said about things related to trump more than a few times, but the excerpts from this rally in particular, I’ve never seen anything like it
 
InfiniteBoredom said:
Tbf comparing anything to 2020 and it would fall short.

The cocksure confidence before the election, the utter despair seeing Florida results rolled in, the glimmer of hope when the needle moved blue for Georgia, the budding confidence when PA mails started trickling in, and the euphoria when Milwaukee dropped 150k votes to give Biden the lead in WI, then 'Maricopa incoming' and 'Fulton/Cobb report' were just cherry on top.

This year people are just primed for disappointment in general, plus all the anger and bad feelings from Gaza, there won't be the unified anticipation and joy of last cycle.
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My 270towin map was very accurate, I was really proud of it :lol: I had a weird feeling about Georgia. We also had the flaming penis by @calodo2003 and the weird photos people kept sending to Trump on Twitter with the creepy message. Flipadelphia and four seasons.
 
Has Tony Hinchcliffe ever been funny though? Kill Tony sucks and I’ve never laughed at him once. Bad comedians like to claim people are too sensitive at their “shocking” jokes when they should be asking is this even funny.
 
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