Russia, Iran Seen by US as Instigators of Violence Post-Election
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...y-us-as-instigators-of-violence-post-election
2024 U.S. Elections | Trump v Harris
- Thread starter Raoul
- Start date
It is the highest it has been since World War 2 (as ratio of GDP). From developed countries the only ones who are higher are Japan, Italy and Greece, three countries with deep economic problems. 17% of the total US budget is spent on interest payments, and this is going to increase. At some stage, US dollar being global reserve currency won’t save the US from this madness.
These final stretch donation emails are kinda funny now. You get a copy of Kamala's cornbread dressing recipe attached to the receipt of your donation just in time for the Holidays. Whatever it takes Kamala! So She has Eminem appearing with her in Detroit. She has both Obama's over the weekend. Springsteen is also performing this week at get out the vote concerts for her.
Go for broke lets see how it ends up.
Go for broke lets see how it ends up.
Will be an infuriating watch as Rogan is much more partisan and onboard the MAGA train these days. In 2020 he might have given Trump a tough interview but now he'll just softball him and make jokes about Kamala being useless.
Of course he will plus he buddy buddies with right wing man child Elon.
Rogan generally gives softball interviews to everyone, except Sanjay Gupta (because CNN were previously mocking his use of Ivermectin). Going on Rogan is basically the same as going on Lex Friedman.
If only Taylor Swift is as motivated as Elon Musk. Not just making a one off post during the debate, but going on full campaign. She should be starting a Swifties PAC.
If Trump wins, can he only do one term because he's already had one previously? Or can he get another 8 years?
One more.
So he'd be gone by 2028 even if he wins.
The closer we get to the date, the more convinced I become that he's going to win. NBC reported today that Harris is preparing to lose NC and MI.
Well....
Sorry, he should be gone by then. I mean he'll be in his 80's and probably won't feel like doing it any more anyway.
He should, but he'll try to hang on any way possible. Mark my words.
Yep, I have already seen people talking about amendments to allow him to run for a 3rd term. He is doing this to stay out of jail, he will not give it up easily.
Exactly.
Simply getting a 2nd term will be enough to keep him out of jail and cancel any existing federal cases against him, so he wouldn't need a third term. Also, a 2nd Trump term is likely to generate so much lawless corruption that he could probably have a new round of legal cases to deal with after he leaves. He's already in pre-dementia mode now, and its only going downhill rapidly over the next 3-4 years.
It’s definitely a conundrum
The amendment won't happen no matter how much he tries, no matter who wins congress there will, not be a 2/3 majority that would pass either the house or sentae, and there's probably less chance 3/4 of states would pass it
This is the direct result of ex Republican suburbanites becoming a key voting base of the party, it is moving towards capital. This is why Bernie Sanders and AOC supported Biden to the bitter end, because they understand that despite his atrocious dealing with Israel, he’s practically a unicorn nowadays for the labour movement among established Democrats.
I doubt Harris would actually nominate him to the role, if you are gonna do neoliberalism, it would make sense to be more low key about it, no?
The US debt is largely misunderstood. The 8 trillion owed to the government, is basically just accounting - well simplified anyway, it doesn't really matter.
The 28.3 trillion public debt is debt the government needs to be able to pay. US GDP is 28.8 trillion, which means the debt ratio is 98%. Lower than the highest, which was 106% after WW2. It will reach those levels in 2032ish at current rates.
Economists speculate that the US can handle 180-200% of public debt before it "defaults" explicitly or implicitly. 180% is not likely until 2046ish, but it is unlikely it will take that long before anything is done - or "happens". Increase to the retirement age, automation balancing out the deficit in workers, tax changes, a more balanced social security system- lots of options to "do something". It is in no way unmanageable or anywhere close to that.
The dangerous number is 200% with current fiscal policies. Before it reaches that (2050 with no changes, which would be unprecedented tbh) there would be a need for closure rules that can be anticipated by the markets to handle that level of debt; Proportional wage or income tax, a broad VAT, broad spending reductions, or a combination of those. If they do that and there is a concrete plan as to how avoid 200%+ the US can probably manage a much higher debt than we think. Economists disagree on how much. Say if the US GDP is 40 trillion in 2050, nothing suggests it would be a "problem" with a debt ratio of 125% or basically a public debt of 90 trillion. Even 150% at 100 trillion could be fine in 2050 if precautions are taken.
There will however be a lot of political theatre over the debt ceiling before that.
The work that Biden did with unions is not recognized, and almost no one talks about it, just like no one talks about the improvement in infrastructure (which is clear to me driving around).
Harris needs this group of voters, and I think that she would, if elected, manage to put together a coalition of business leaders and progressives. The country as a whole doesn’t support AOC and the likes.
Sanders and his entourage have allowed Trump, and Republicans generally, to depict Democrats as socialists. Many voters, including in important places like Florida, bought this narrative (which I don’t agree with). Harris is trying to show that this narrative is false, and these business people can help in that regard.
In the end, this is America, for better or for worse. We have workers and unions, but super rich too, guns are allowed, socialism is detested, religion plays a role in the lives of millions, race remains important, etc. It may be sad, but it’s the reality. Harris is trying to do her best given this reality.
Put differently, at least for now, Harris is not trying to be the “most pro-union president” or “most progressive president” or the one who would restrict guns the most, etc. And I appreciate that approach.
I want her to win. That would be the biggest success.
fecking hell.
I think there’s a pretty fair chance that it would happen, actually. It would draw much less resistance from Senate Republicans, for one, can’t lose those sweet Wall Street money, and secondly if she wants to placate the left by keeping Lina Khan at the FTC then that’s a decent bargain.
I have also seen people like Chris Matthews for instance insisting that Liz Cheney has to be rewarded for her support, as she lost everything with Republicans by opposing Trump. Now, Chris Matthews is an old fool, but he’s an old fool because he’s deeply immersed in that Beltway line of thinking and I’m pretty worried that Harris would be influenced by it as well.
Still, Jaime Dimon as Treasury Secretary and Liz Cheney as National Security Advisor is still a more palatable prospect than fecking JD Vance and Mike Flynn, so we just have to eat that shit sandwich if it comes to that.
Roe vs Wade?
That's the problem.
Walz is on one today. 
Yeah, these minority and immigrant individuals (not just Muslims, but anyone who is religious) would likely support the GOP more for some of their policies if the party weren’t so hostile toward them. It’s funny to think of them as left-leaning or anything like that.
Even this SCOTUS would find it hard to argue against the 22nd amendment. Maybe if he got himself appointed vice president to his successor and then the successor retired, making him president by process and not election, SCOTUS might be inclined to rule that as not being covered by the 22nd. But by the time that plan got going, Obama would be someones vice presidential candidate, so good luck with that.
Walz is on one today.
Politics is more entertainment and stand up comedy than substance these days. I suppose we can thank Trump for this.
It appears Arab American voters do not find the Caf's "Gaza would be 20x worse under Trump" argument convincing.
In all seriouness you can look at the data from another recent poll here. What you see is that a large number of Arab Americans identify as Republican (38%), the same as the number that identify as Democrat. In a press note for this poll, the institute notes that Biden had 59% support from Arab Americans in the 2020 election.The Arab Americans who identify as Democrat are considerably less enthusiastic to vote than the Republican ones this time (67% to 80%), probably because of disapproval of Gaza, which Arab American Democrats rank as the most important issue for them.
Probably the ones who are likely to vote Republican are fine voting for Trump because they've had eight years to reconcile with the idea, whereas for Democrats the Gaza abomination is still quite fresh.
Bill Gates is backing Harris.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/22/...s-share&referringSource=articleShare&tgrp=bth