2024 U.S. Elections | Trump v Harris

B. Munich said:
I think Biden can't win here. If he hadn't supported Israel, then he would have lost big group of Jewish voters.

If muslin voters want to punish Biden for his stand on Gaza and vote for Trump or don't vote at all (which is indirectly a vote for Trump) then they will have to have the consequences, if Trump will be president again.
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First of all, support of Israel isn't a binary, like you do or you don't. Biden has been the most pro-Israel President in a long, long time, during a period, where Israel seriously needed to be reigned in. He could easily have been more moderate without losing support of Jewish voters, who aren't all ardent Zionists, by the way. And if we're being very cynical about electoral strategy, the high density Jewish population centers in the U.S. generally aren't in swing states. Evangelicals likely would have been a bigger problem.

Second, this whole "You better vote Harris or else..." logic is so grating.
 
gaffs said:
My guess, RFK takes more from Trump.

And the "lean Biden" voters that may have gone RFK/third party as they didn't really like either candidate.

It is the double haters, as well as young voters, that are the ones that are moving to Harris.
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A good guess since they both overlap on misinformation, vaccine skepticism, and conspiracy theories.
 
Not sure if The Caf is a fan of "The Mooch", but i actually enjoy his commentary, knowledge and insight. Especially on The Rest is Politics UK.

Scaramucci always says 20M baby boomers have died since 2020 and 40M GenX-Y-Zers have been added to the voting rolls.

How true is that?

It would seem that is where a lot of the Trumps campaign attentions is going, with Trump doing all the shows with young podcasters and YouTube stars - and that includes the Musk "interview". Could be a very smart strategy.
 
Mike Smalling said:
First of all, support of Israel isn't a binary, like you do or you don't. Biden has been the most pro-Israel President in a long, long time, during a period, where Israel seriously needed to be reigned in. He could easily have been more moderate without losing support of Jewish voters, who aren't all ardent Zionists, by the way. And if we're being very cynical about electoral strategy, the high density Jewish population centers in the U.S. generally aren't in swing states. Evangelicals likely would have been a bigger problem.

Second, this whole "You better vote Harris or else..." logic is so grating.
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More pro Israel than Trump?

Plus, im sure you are aware, but often TV commentators (and Trump) don't seem to realize, is that racial or religious groups are not a monolithic voting block.

Not all Jewish people are going to vote depending on how much support one candidate gives to Israel, over another. Netanyahu is wildly unpopular in Israel, and more so outside. Any Jewish people I know despise him and Trump, as they see them to be morally corrupt people, which stands before any particular policy.

In the same way that not all black voters are going to vote for the candidate that offers more "black jobs". Whatever a "black job" is supposed to be?
 
gaffs said:
Not sure if The Caf is a fan of "The Mooch", but i actually enjoy his commentary, knowledge and insight. Especially on The Rest is Politics UK.

Scaramucci always says 20M baby boomers have died since 2020 and 40M GenX-Y-Zers have been added to the voting rolls.

How true is that?

It would seem that is where a lot of the Trumps campaign attentions is going, with Trump doing all the shows with young podcasters and YouTube stars - and that includes the Musk "interview". Could be a very smart strategy.
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100% true. Gen Z and Millennials now account for 40% of the potential electorate. In 2030 Gen Z will probably be the largest voting block in the US.
 
Mike Smalling said:
Biden has been the most pro-Israel President in a long, long time, during a period, where Israel seriously needed to be reigned in.
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However, Biden isn't on the ticket anymore. You can of course say Harris is his VP but we all know the VP doesn't have much to say in foreign policies.

Regarding the rest of your post I am not qualified to comment. I just thought that voters of Jewish descent is a much, much bigger group than the pro Palestine voters.

Let's all hope the war in Gaza is over by November. This will give the democrats a big boost to defeat Trump convincingly.
 
gaffs said:
Not sure if The Caf is a fan of "The Mooch", but i actually enjoy his commentary, knowledge and insight. Especially on The Rest is Politics UK.

Scaramucci always says 20M baby boomers have died since 2020 and 40M GenX-Y-Zers have been added to the voting rolls.

How true is that?

It would seem that is where a lot of the Trumps campaign attentions is going, with Trump doing all the shows with young podcasters and YouTube stars - and that includes the Musk "interview". Could be a very smart strategy.
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Without knowing where he's getting his numbers from, its pretty obvious that with each four year cycle, olds die off and younger voters become more active. The issue with younger voters is they are notoriously loud on social media but don't turn out to actually vote in comparable numbers.
 
Mike Smalling said:
First of all, support of Israel isn't a binary, like you do or you don't.

Second, this whole "You better vote Harris or else..." logic is so grating.
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It's certainly not and I believe things would (and they certainly could) have been a lot worse for Palestine (and minority groupings) in the US had a Trump administration been in place last October and that their situation would worsen further under a future Trump administration than a future Harris one. Of course it's impossible to prove a counterfactual but based on what I have seen and heard in terms of rhetoric I believe things could actually be worse for those impacted. That doesn't mean I don't think it's awful or that I approve of the way it's been handled. I simply haven't heard a convincing argument that the Trump admin wouldn't have been worse.

I also believe that the only realistic options in this election cycle are the Democrats and Republican and it's going to be a closely run thing so votes really will count.
 
DanH said:
It's certainly not and I believe things would (and they certainly could) have been a lot worse for Palestine (and minority groupings) in the US had a Trump administration been in place last October and that their situation would worsen further under a future Trump administration than a future Harris one. Of course it's impossible to prove a counterfactual but based on what I have seen and heard in terms of rhetoric I believe things could actually be worse for those impacted. That doesn't mean I don't think it's awful or that I approve of the way it's been handled. I simply haven't heard a convincing argument that the Trump admin wouldn't have been worse.

I also believe that the only realistic options in this election cycle are the Democrats and Republican and it's going to be a closely run thing so votes really will count.
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Not just in this cycle, likely for the rest of our lifetime.
 
gaffs said:
More pro Israel than Trump?

Plus, im sure you are aware, but often TV commentators (and Trump) don't seem to realize, is that racial or religious groups are not a monolithic voting block.

Not all Jewish people are going to vote depending on how much support one candidate gives to Israel, over another. Netanyahu is wildly unpopular in Israel, and more so outside. Any Jewish people I know despise him and Trump, as they see them to be morally corrupt people, which stands before any particular policy.

In the same way that not all black voters are going to vote for the candidate that offers more "black jobs". Whatever a "black job" is supposed to be?
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Yeah, that was kind of my point. U.S. Jews mostly lean towards the Democrats, and they aren't one-issue voters that only care about Israel. That's actually what so insulting, when Trump says "Jewish people that vote Democrat need their heads examined". Like they don't care about any other issue - they are purely supposed to be defined by their love of Israel. Pretty racist.

B. Munich said:
However, Biden isn't on the ticket anymore. You can of course say Harris is his VP but we all know the VP doesn't have much to say in foreign policies.

Regarding the rest of your post I am not qualified to comment. I just thought that voters of Jewish descent is a much, much bigger group than the pro Palestine voters.

Let's all hope the war in Gaza is over by November. This will give the democrats a big boost to defeat Trump convincingly.
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It's not that much bigger. If you just go by the core groups, there is about 7.5 million Jews and 4.5 million Muslims in the US. But like stated above, Jews aren't single issue pro-Israel voters, and Muslims aren't single issue pro-Palestine voters. I'd say it's just as much about other groups that care about this issue - evangelicals on the pro-Israel side, and younger, left-leaning voters on the pro-Palestine side.
 
B. Munich said:
Of course it is, because we are talking about potential democrat voters
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They are also potential Republican voters. Arab Americans voted for George W. Bush in 2000.

These voters moved away from the GOP because of post-war on terror islamophobia and constant demonizing of their communities as "terrorists", if they see similar behavior among Democrats (as has been the case in the fallout of the Israel/Gaza 'conflict') then they are entitled to behave in the same way.
 
Rado_N said:
Elon may have been “not stupid” one day back whenever, but he absolutely is now. Drugs have done a massive number on his brain.
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Example.....




I mean FFS! This is from a man who is CEO of major companies and supposed to be intelligent etc blah blah blah...


That post isn't something to be proud of or to broadcast to millions around the world. It's just yet another attention seeking Tweet aimed at looking cool to whoever. How the anti-drugs lot on either side of the political spectrum view that is one thing, how his board members and business partners view it is another. He just looks like a fecking dick.
 
langster said:
Example.....




I mean FFS! This is from a man who is CEO of major companies and supposed to be intelligent etc blah blah blah...


That post isn't something to be proud of or to broadcast to millions around the world. It's just yet another attention seeking Tweet aimed at looking cool to whoever. How the anti-drugs lot on either side of the political spectrum view that is one thing, how his board members and business partners view it is another. He just looks like a fecking dick.
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Yep, he is a complete and utter twunt.
 
Mike Smalling said:
It's not that much bigger. If you just go by the core groups, there is about 7.5 million Jews and 4.5 million Muslims in the US. But like stated above, Jews aren't single issue pro-Israel voters, and Muslims aren't single issue pro-Palestine voters. I'd say it's just as much about other groups that care about this issue - evangelicals on the pro-Israel side, and younger, left-leaning voters on the pro-Palestine side.
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Really the 'issue' is not whether people are pro-Israel or pro-Palestine. The actual issue is that most people are against the type of horrible mass murder that Israel is committing.

Of course what happens is that once this reality is filtered through the U.S.'s abhorrent media, through partisanship, through 'pro Israel/Palestine support', and other buffers, most people will reach the same conclusion they were always going to reach (vote D or R). But the worse this reality is, the more likely it is that some people can't rationalize it.
 
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InfiniteBoredom said:


If +5 in Florida is true then it’s very likely + 1-3 Harris everywhere else. Trump won by 3.5 in 2020 and it has gone even redder since.
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Suffolk is an unreliable pollster, and any poll in isolation is going to be problematic.
Raoul said:
Your framing seems to be off. I think most in the public view the conflict as an intergenerational dispute over land that has killed a lot of people over the generations, this most recent episode being a particularly violent one. The American interest in Israel has been discussed ad nauseum in various Israel threads, so no need to rehash it through a deep dive in the elections thread.
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Are you a teacher in your day job?
Mike Smalling said:
With the benefit of total hindsight, I wonder how many Americans are happy with the cause of action the US took after 9/11, and whether they are able to identify that Israel is making some of the same mistakes.
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Among the educated I’d say almost no one supports the Iraq adventure. There are those who say “better to fight them over there than over here” and I’d lump them with the uneducated. Afghanistan seemed the right target but I knew we were never achieving our goals there.
SirAF said:
That's not really a very good "gotcha". Since you are so active in this thread, I presume you have enough knowledge about US issues to know how damaging a new Trump term would be domestically right? Those reasons ALONE are good enough to will on the Dems - despite any of their flaws.

As for my personal security I'll humor you. I think it is unlikely I'll be in any danger, but keep in mind that Norway share a border with Russia. I don't think it is likely that Putin will want a bite of Northern Norway, but who the hell knows these days? It's an unstable world, and it will be even more unstable with another Trump presidency. It might not happen, but there is every chance that Trump could pull out of NATO, or at the very least refuse to come to Europe's aid unless his terms are fulfilled. He said the following:



Not to mention the potential financial ramifications of a new Trump term - that will affect us too.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/15/what-a-trump-presidency-could-mean-for-europes-economy.html

There is every reason for me AND you to go all in on hoping that Harris wins. There's no excuse really.
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100%
SirAF said:
I would imagine that not a lot of "neutrals" would tune in to something like that. These days I'm fairly certain that there is a significant overlap between Trump fans and Musk fans - and those are mainly those who would tune in I'd think.
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Agreed. The only people who want to hear his voice are true believers. I can’t stand the sound of his voice.
 
Wing Attack Plan R said:
It’s far down the list for me, behind things such as stopping Trump and the 2025 plan.
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There are a lot more important problems than Gaza to worry about. We have to end the Ukraine war, for one, and slow down the nuclear arms race, stop terrorism, and world hunger. We have to provide food and shelter for the homeless, and oppose racial discrimination and promote civil rights, while also promoting equal rights for women. We have to encourage a return to traditional moral values. Most importantly, we have to promote general social concern and less materialism in young people.
 
Mike Smalling said:
Yeah, that was kind of my point. U.S. Jews mostly lean towards the Democrats, and they aren't one-issue voters that only care about Israel. That's actually what so insulting, when Trump says "Jewish people that vote Democrat need their heads examined". Like they don't care about any other issue - they are purely supposed to be defined by their love of Israel. Pretty racist.



It's not that much bigger. If you just go by the core groups, there is about 7.5 million Jews and 4.5 million Muslims in the US. But like stated above, Jews aren't single issue pro-Israel voters, and Muslims aren't single issue pro-Palestine voters. I'd say it's just as much about other groups that care about this issue - evangelicals on the pro-Israel side, and younger, left-leaning voters on the pro-Palestine side.
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Completely agree. He is a moron. He groups people together and thinks they all must want the same thing.

I would love to see him get called out for this kind of behaviour on a debate stage.

The guy has never lived in the "real world", certainly not for a long time. He lives behind the walls of his country clubs and has done for decades. Another good attack line in the debate stage!

And as we heard on from his "interview" with Musk, he is not much of a listener. Unless someone is kissing his ass.
 
Raoul said:
Without knowing where he's getting his numbers from, its pretty obvious that with each four year cycle, olds die off and younger voters become more active. The issue with younger voters is they are notoriously loud on social media but don't turn out to actually vote in comparable numbers.
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Well Trump is certainly trying to reach out to them by going on X with Musk, or YouTube with

You think Harris would go on with Musk? If I was her, I would ask to go on with him.
I know he is conflicted as feck now, but she has to show she is up for going into unconfortable spaces and put her message of sanity across.

I would be calling Joe Rogan too.

What is there that either Rogan or Musk could "get her" on?
 
Raoul said:
Without knowing where he's getting his numbers from, its pretty obvious that with each four year cycle, olds die off and younger voters become more active. The issue with younger voters is they are notoriously loud on social media but don't turn out to actually vote in comparable numbers.
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Basically everyone is 4 years older, with some additions/subtractions at either end. The demographics should become more favourable to the democrats over time if they can prevent people from drifting to the right as they age.
The median age is increasing and Harris has a big opportunity to address the boomers and keep older voters in her column.
 
Walz’s appearance alongside the Muslim cleric, one of several in recent years, came after Zaman had shared a link in 2015 to a neo-Nazi propaganda film that portrayed Adolf Hitler in a positive light.
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The modern day version of a song from The Sound of Music - made me smile a little

 
Revan said:
Abolishing the filibuster is a terrible idea and would just strengthen the division even more. I know that Harry Reid to some degree had to do it for judicial appointments, but that eventually helped McConnell the next time GOP got in power.

Unless the Dems plan to rule forever (which in democracies outside of Singapore just doesn’t happen), abolishing the filibuster would have negative consequences.

In any case, Dems won’t control the Senate in January so any talk of abolishing filibuster, adding statehoods to DC and PR, enlarging the Supreme Court is poor fantasy. And limits to SCOTUS is just to sell to people who know nothing about it, considering that it cannot be done without extreme bipartisan support.
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I don't think it should be abolished, I do think it should be modified though, the threshold is too high IMO, especially in the polarised world of today, getting a President's aganda passed in to law, on either side of the aisle, is nigh on impossible.
 
ManUtd1999 said:
Is he concerned about winning in FL? Or is he just trying to seal the deal?
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Not sure. Haven't seen a recent poll for the race. Just seems odd.

He only won by 0.12% in 2018 but that was before the red lurch of my home state & it was against the incumbent.
 
calodo2003 said:
Not sure. Haven't seen a recent poll for the race. Just seems odd.

He only won by 0.12% in 2018 but that was before the red lurch of my home state & it was against the incumbent.
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Yes, it’s odd, but he may be seeing something that we are not.

It was only 6 years ago, but it feels like a lifetime since the margins were this small in FL.
 
gaffs said:
They were saying on Pod Save America, prior to the Obama campaign in 2008, it was the norm not to campaign during the other parties convention.

I actually think Trump is doing some smart things. Doing youtubes and podcasts with people like Aiden Ross, Logan Paul and even playing golf with Bryson DeChambeau. He reaches more people doing those than a rally.
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Preaching to the converted won't win this election. Especially when he has become even more unhinged since Biden dropped out.
 
Damn, just going to miss the clown show. If this was next week, I would have gone to experience a Trump rally...

 
Harris has cut into the non-college white voters since May - it was Trump by 25% then, now it's Trump by 14%.
 
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