2024 U.S. Elections | Trump v Harris
- Thread starter Raoul
- Start date
Thank you.
First one of these I've seen with Harris. Fairly promising so far.
Has anyone ever been able to calculate how many voters the "Trump base" brings?
Would that base really not vote Republican without him? They may not vote for Nikki Haley, but how about a Trump light?
They issue the Republicans have, is that he holds a suge a huge megaphone. There is not enough backbone in the party to force him out. The couldnt do it post January 6, so why would they ever do it?
If he loses in 2024, he is coming back in 2028 for another run, so unless he dies, they wont be able to get shut of him.
We don't really know the answer to this because we're in uncharted territory in recent years.
The previous Republican base was built on a triumvirate of three primary blocks of voters - social (evangelicals), fiscal (tax cutters), and military (strong Reaganite foreign policy).
Trump has largely destroyed that construct and created his own cult of personality driven base that is built atop cultural grievance and anything else Trump wants to promote.
When Trump lost in 2020 and attempted his insurrection, there was some degree of blowback in Republican circles, which is how the likes of DeSantis quickly gained momentum before Trump regrouped to take him out.
What will happen if Trump loses this time ? There's a good chance the GOP will somewhat revert to the mean because in the absence of Trumpism and all of the clowns like MJT, Gaetz, Boebert et al., who rode in on his grift, there still is a fairly strong foundation of Reaganite Republicanism that continues to percolate beneath it all. Therefore if Trump leaves, that faction would probably reassert itself through the likes of DeSantis, Haley, Yongkin, Rubio, and a few others.
The right-wing media eco-system is entirely powerful enough to get the Trumpers to vote for someone else, but only if they get going early enough. It's too late this cycle.
The GOP had every chance to shut the door on Trump after Jan 6th, and didn't have the spine. Now it's him or bust.
The GOP had every chance to shut the door on Trump after Jan 6th, and didn't have the spine. Now it's him or bust.
Looks like no VP decision has been made as of yet. Shapiro and Beshear are now cancelling events which basically means that Harris has asked them to come privately meet her before she makes a final decision.
It would be quite a spectacle if she selects Beshear and begins her campaign in Shapiro's home state. Not sure if that would work out well for her.
Beshear is pretty dull. Shapiro may piss off the left wing with his pro Israel views.
I agree. The vast majority of the GOP are still Reagan Republicans.
I just cant see Trump exiting politics, even if he loses. He will run again and he has enough of a base to win him the next primary.
I think @Raoul already showed that that argument doesn't really hold water:
Also, it might be good for balance if Harris has a pick that's associated with pro-Israel views, so she can't be attacked on that by the Republicans.
I don't think a single article "proves" anything
For example:
I agree he is a good pick because he likes tax cuts, private schools, and loves Israel and hates Palestine more than the average Democrat. This will attract the moderate centrists, and the left/youth have shown what a cheap date they are already after Harris announced, so they will vote for her even if she spits in their face
It is interesting the Union bigwigs have come out in the past 24 hours against Shapiro when it seemed more and more likely he would be the pick. Unions also essentially killed off the chances Mark Kelly had of getting the nod.
I guess one could ask Shapiro if he can provide examples of actual antisemitism on campuses. But based on these comments, it doesn't seem like he's smearing all pro-Palestinian protesters.
When i have seen him do interviews, he has a habit of going into that intensive stare mode so he definitely would need some media training.
Some progressives are apparently warming to Shaprio now that they've had a chance to look at his record. The dude at TYT was speaking more favorably about him last night.
Grasping at straws...
Classic projection, cause we sure know Jeanine hasn't been sober a single day for the last decade or so.
She needs to be checked in to a mental institution.
He talks like a regional candidate and doesn't seem ready for nationwide appeal.
She will be a force come '32 (not '28)...
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Shit.
By 2032, Whitmer will be less relevant, and others will show up.
She was by far my favorite person to lead us this year, but I got disappointed again (just like in 2020)
She was by far my favorite person to lead us this year, but I got disappointed again (just like in 2020)
Nah, she will still have clout & gravitas in '32, in fact quite a few of the current crowded Dem bench will also have such then.
Did not sound nearly as bad as i thought it was.
That said, i hope Shapiro can clear the bad optics if he is picked.
Surely the blue governor of a red state, with a liberal stance on abortion, a moderate stance on gun control, and a more conservative personality would be the obvious choice.
KY and their 8 votes could really help the Dems.
KY and their 8 votes could really help the Dems.
It comes down to whether Harris can hold PY, which is the risk.
There's no chance of KY going blue even if Beshear is Harris' choice.
I don't think a single article "proves" anything
For example:
I agree he is a good pick because he likes tax cuts, private schools, and loves Israel and hates Palestine more than the average Democrat. This will attract the moderate centrists, and the left/youth have shown what a cheap date they are already after Harris announced, so they will vote for her even if she spits in their face
Well, it doesn't sound like he'd be my pick, and I anyway don't know the candidates well enough (plus it's not my country; a good reminder to not spend as much time in this thread); but it just seems to me that he's not as far off the democratic mainstream as is being portrayed.
I feel like he was being ironic, mate, though i'm not exactly sure.
Rafael Edward Cruz is the better selection, though he claimed to have started going by Ted at age 13.
Fantastic news, with the usual caveats obviously
hmm
We're all Marxists according to Fox News, but the percentage of the left who actually align with Rashida Tlaib's "left" (and their views) is actually small. Jamaal Bowman lost by double digits to George Latimer. Cori Bush is about to lose in August. [This talks about their waning influence: https://www.npr.org/2024/04/05/1242536070/democrats-israel-palestine-primaries.]
The left wing who might be against Shapiro are going to find the other candidate to be even more hardline, so they will again have to choose between the lesser of two evils (with Shapiro being the lesser, of course). The independent or undecided voters are ones who are already leaning center right, and so they will be more receptive to Shapiro than against him.
This is speaking precisely the language of his base. Not sure whether this moves the needle very much since the country is held back by so-called "independents" umming and ahhing "but inflation" rather than the absolute moral and ethical depravity right before our very eyes.
I think the article and its author have a pretty open interest in supporting Israel and limiting criticism of Israel to criticism of so-called far-right Netanyahu. It is why they have focused on the more well-known parts of Shapiro's pro-Israel stances, like comparing student protesters to the KKK, while ignoring him wanting to sanction a private ice cream chain for withdrawing from the illegal settlements (and not from Israel as a whole). That, by the way, does put him at odds with the rhetoric of the Democratic mainstream.
To reiterate, being to the right of the mainstream on Israel as well as taxes and private schools, does make him a good VP pick, since Kamala has the youth and unions lined up and ready to vote without doing a single thing. The only real liability is some sexual assault his office might have covered up, but that attack would be slightly blunted coming from Trump.