2024 U.S. Elections | Trump v Harris

Revan said:
2nd bold: Yes, almost every poll for a year has been putting Trump winning the popular vote.
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They are no longer relevant.
Raoul said:
Why are you conflating unrelated events ?
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Make A Guess About it.
KirkDuyt said:
People think Trump is charismatic? Does charisma have a different, second meaning I'm not aware of?
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It means "shit cnut" when applied to Trump, California Dictionary, 1st Edition.
Ekkie Thump said:
One man's avatar is another man's lavatoire.
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Pretty good. Pretty, pretty, pretty good.
Florida Man said:
That term gets overused in the same way conservatives think the Dems and Soros are communists. But otherwise, yes it’s what I predict. Trump will inherit a shitshow of an economy and I doubt that gets resolved.
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The stock market is at record highs, which is not the only metric but it seems to be the metric Republicans talk about the most. The economy is a shit show with record profits for Republicans. Taking the Covid shutdown out of the equation, Biden's economy added jobs at a faster/higher rate than Trump's. Employment is up 10% from where it was when Biden was sworn in. Manufacturing jobs have increased 6.5% under Biden. You can read more yourself here: https://www.politifact.com/article/2024/mar/04/Biden-Trump-economy-who-did-better/.
 
Florida Man said:
That doesn’t describe fascism and the supreme court isn’t under his thumb. If anything, it just shows that the system did its job and took the trash out. I’ve also had people tell me that Florida is under fascism because it’s DeSantis as governor. It really is an overused term.
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Trump is a textbook example of fascism. Subverting an election to keep someone in power is an example of opposition to parliamentary democracy; decrying his opponents as "communist Marxists" is an example of opposition to Marxism, literally; decrying the "woke" culture and DEI initiatives is an example of opposition to cultural liberalism; seeking to override the safeguards of democracy in order to keep one man in office while dominating institutions like the Supreme Court, Dept. of Justice, etc., is an example of totalitarian ambitions, and so on and so forth. Demanding obedience to authority? Check. Calling for incarceration/ execution of enemies? Check. The theory of the unitary executive / leadership principle? Check. Deployment of violence? Check.
 
Wing Attack Plan R said:
The stock market is at record highs, which is not the only metric but it seems to be the metric Republicans talk about the most. The economy is a shit show with record profits for Republicans. Taking the Covid shutdown out of the equation, Biden's economy added jobs at a faster/higher rate than Trump's. Employment is up 10% from where it was when Biden was sworn in. Manufacturing jobs have increased 6.5% under Biden. You can read more yourself here: https://www.politifact.com/article/2024/mar/04/Biden-Trump-economy-who-did-better/.
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Perception of the economy is that it is not in a good shape, which is more important than statistics for economy when it comes to people voting. There has been a massive decrease in the spending power (the cost of living) and people are struggling. But, we actually are creating more jobs won't cut it, I am afraid. Yes, it is all over the world, but people won't care.

Is Biden the only one to be blamed for this? Of course not. It has been a problem of various administrations, of all of them since I am alive. Trump fecked up the response to covid, the public debt also increased under him, etc etc, but the perception is that the economy was stronger back then than it is right now. And even more importantly, people who are struggling tend to blame the current administration.

For what is worth, I think that the economy would be better under a Harris administration than under a Trump one. Historically, since Reagan, the Democrat administrations did better for the economy than Republican ones. But the current perception is that the economy is not well, and Harris has been part of this administration.
 
Maticmaker said:
Yes, but I think with quite a few of our fellow Caf contributors, this does not seem to register. :confused:
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That's because they see things as black or white with no shades of grey, or because they've got these :cool: on and can'tsee properly
 
Good piece on this, today:

despite what numerous misleading polls have been showing (and with most of the news media reacting purely off those polls) – Harris’s selection will largely shore up the weaknesses that were dragging down Biden’s poll numbers.

and

First, most people in this country typically choose the Democratic nominee for president over the Republican nominee time and time again. With the sole exception of 2004, in every presidential election since 1992, the Democratic nominee has won the popular vote (Biden bested Donald Trump by 7m votes in 2020).

and

The Anes has found a clear and undeniable trend of swing voters virtually disappearing from the populace. In 2020, just 5.6% of voters fell into that category – down from 13% in 2008.

and

the economy is actually going like gangbusters. Fifteen million jobs have been created under the Biden administration and the stock market is at an all-time high, swelling 401k retirement coffers by an average of $10,000 according to Fidelity investments.

and

An 18 July CBS poll showed Trump leading Biden by 51% to 47%. Breaking down the numbers reveals that Biden was backed by 42% of white voters – a higher percentage than he received in 2020 when he defeated Trump.

and

Biden received 65% of the Latino vote in 2020, and 87% of the Black vote (no Democratic nominee has ever received less than 83% of the Black vote since the advent of race-specific exit polling in 1976). Either there has been a cataclysmic decline of support for Biden among voters of color, or the pollsters just aren’t that good at surveying people of color, or people of color are expressing their current lack of enthusiasm, which is a very different thing than how they will ultimately vote in November.

If, in fact, support for Democrats among people of color is the principal problem, then putting Harris at the top of the ticket is a master stroke. The enthusiasm for electing [I think he meant to write "nominating" here] the first woman of color as president will likely be a thunderclap across the country that consolidates the support of voters of color

https://www.theguardian.com/comment.../kamala-harris-elecion-masterstroke-democrats
 
Revan said:
Perception of the economy is that it is not in a good shape, which is more important than statistics for economy when it comes to people voting. There has been a massive decrease in the spending power (the cost of living) and people are struggling. But, we actually are creating more jobs won't cut it, I am afraid. Yes, it is all over the world, but people won't care.

Is Biden the only one to be blamed for this? Of course not. It has been a problem of various administrations, of all of them since I am alive. Trump fecked up the response to covid, the public debt also increased under him, etc etc, but the perception is that the economy was stronger back then than it is right now. And even more importantly, people who are struggling tend to blame the current administration.

For what is worth, I think that the economy would be better under a Harris administration than under a Trump one. Historically, since Reagan, the Democrat administrations did better for the economy than Republican ones. But the current perception is that the economy is not well, and Harris has been part of this administration.
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You're describing the Republican base's immunity to facts and reason. Legitimate news sources have been saying for awhile now that the economy is not in the toilet, but the people who need to hear it, don't. They do not hear about it on Fox News and they don't read traditional newspapers. NYT has been doing series on Trump voters and asking them things like where they get their news and whom they believe, and the respondents are saying things like they trust their friends on social media more than national news agencies.

This is the Gordian knot that can't be untied: Fox has isolated its viewers to the extent nothing penetrates the bubble. Sometimes people like Gavin Newsom go on Fox News to give some excluded facts, but I haven't seen anything suggesting these one-offs do any good. On Fox's flagship show, The Five, there is a liberal, Jessica Tarlov. She has a BA in history from Bryn Mawr, a Masters in public policy and a PhD in political science and government from the London School of Economics. In short, she has more credentials than the rest of the network - combined - and they still don't listen to her. She frequently cuts down their talking points with facts, and they resort to ad hominem attacks or any number of disingenuous fallacies. Watching that show is brutal and makes one weep for this Nation. If Tarlov can't get through to them with facts and logic, what hope is there?

Tarlov [and Scott Galloway] on Real Time:

Tarlov speaking on Biden's withdrawal from running:
 
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Disappointed that Pete is not one of the front runners for VP. I was so hoping for that ticket. Almost an immaculate conception. MAGA nation would be in flames.
 
Insanity said:
The polls that matter are the ones for the Midwestern states, a couple of Southern states & a couple more down West. How is she doing there against Trump?
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Its too early to tell given there are only a couple of national polls available. And even those, I wouldn't trust more until after she names a running mate and the Dems hold their convention. By then she should more clearly defined to the public as a Presidential candidate and the Republicans would've also had plenty of time to slander her to bring her numbers down.
 
Revan said:
Bring it on. Will be important to see if other polls show the same pattern, but this is really great news.
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Isn’t a national poll kind of pointless in America? Surely the most important issue is whether Harris is beating Trump in the swing states she needs to win? And whether she’s more/less likely to win those states than Biden would have been?
 
Eric_the_Red99 said:
Isn’t a national poll kind of pointless in America? Surely the most important issue is whether Harris is beating Trump in the swing states she needs to win? And whether she’s more/less likely to win those states than Biden would have been?
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well, you aren't winning those states as a democrat if you're losing nationally. but this upward movement will probably reflect in those states too.
 
Eric_the_Red99 said:
Isn’t a national poll kind of pointless in America? Surely the most important issue is whether Harris is beating Trump in the swing states she needs to win? And whether she’s more/less likely to win those states than Biden would have been?
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If she's polling +4 or +5 nationally, it would be a strong indicator that she's capable of winning, so national polls do matter. A high tide raises all ships and all that.
 
Raoul said:
Its too early to tell given there are only a couple of national polls available. And even those, I wouldn't trust more until after she names a running mate and the Dems hold their convention. By then she should more clearly defined to the public as a Presidential candidate and the Republicans would've also had plenty of time to slander her to bring her numbers down.
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I saw some listed in an article on NYT & Trump was leading her in all the states that'll eventually matter. Not sure when was the polling done for those, though.
 
Well she's moving quickly already at her first rally in Wisconsin. Getting out there where she needs to be seen and motivating on the ground.
 
Insanity said:
I saw some listed in an article on NYT & Trump was leading her in all the states that'll eventually matter. Not sure when was the polling done for those, though.
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I think most or all state polling on Harris was done before she became a Presidential candidate, which makes them more hypothetical.
 
Insanity said:
I saw some listed in an article on NYT & Trump was leading her in all the states that'll eventually matter. Not sure when was the polling done for those, though.
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Don’t think any swing state polling has been published after Biden dropped out. She was running close in hypothetical match-ups up until.
 
berbatrick said:
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:lol:

Looks like RFK is hurting the Republicans more than the Dems. So much for Hannity and the clowns at Fox promoting him because they thought he would eat into Dem votes.

No wonder Trump was trying to coax him to get out of the race last week.
 
I could see Harris eventually get within touching distance of winning according to the polls, then Trump does a deal with RFK and it's game over.
 
Insanity said:
Disappointed that Pete is not one of the front runners for VP. I was so hoping for that ticket. Almost an immaculate conception. MAGA nation would be in flames.
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Black woman and gay ticket. Difficult to beat

Policies and articulate is just a bonus in this popularity contest
 
Maybe Trump isn't actually getting tons of sympathy votes over assassination attempt, as he is a deeply unlikable character to the majority of Americans regardless.

Just a thought.
 
Morty_ said:
Maybe Trump isn't actually getting tons of sympathy votes over assassination attempt, as he is a deeply unlikable character to the majority of Americans regardless.

Just a thought.
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Biden dropping out and Harris' energy over the past couple of days has completely wiped out any sympathy sentiment for Trump and the RNC convention. They are basically back at square one and will soon be doubling down on doing whatever they can to raise her disapproval numbers.
 
Raoul said:
Biden dropping out and Harris' energy over the past couple of days has completely wiped out any sympathy sentiment for Trump and the RNC convention. They are basically back at square one and will soon be doubling down on doing whatever they can to raise her disapproval numbers.
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Amazing how the lifecycle of an assassination attempt is 1 week before another big news item drops it to almost irrelevance.
 
Semper Fudge said:
I think she's a pretty good speaker. Confident, at least.
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She's perfectly fine, and the bar has also been lowered to the bottom of the Mariana Trench. Compared to Trump's rambling lies or Biden's feeble old-man speak, any mildly energetic and coherent speaker is a breath of fresh air.
 
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