2024 U.S. Elections | Trump v Harris

Don’t think it should be underestimated that the Democrats will now field a ticket with two relatively young and fresh faces. People have been wanting an alternative to old/crazy and they’ve got it. The fund raising numbers also indicate a positive reception (not just from big donors).

They have a lot of messaging to do in a short time, but the outlook is so much better now.
 
Suedesi said:
So, you think I've lost the plot? Let's recap the week:
  • An assassination attempt on the GOP candidate. Just another day in politics, right?
  • A California lab-grown redneck gets bumped up to #2.
  • The President resigns via tweet, doing a complete 180 and leaving his staff in the dark. Classic leadership move.
  • He doesn’t bother addressing the media or the public. Traditions are overrated, apparently.
(If he's too sick with COVID for a news conference, isn't he too sick to make such decisions?)

Clearly, the plot hasn't been lost. It's just gotten a lot more interesting.
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And in your troubled mind that somehow is equal to a coup.
 
How can you lose a plot you never had?
 
I find it odd that some people label Trump as the most unpopular GOP candidate in history or something similar. He might be that on Red Cafe.

However, he's still leading in polls for many months in swing states and is considered a favorite by many to win. He is even winning popular votes in some general polls. This is despite the fact that he has negatively impacted a lot of people in the U.S. with his actions, such as influencing the Supreme Court’s decisions, mishandling COVID-19, and other issues.

Unless these people have seen the future where Trump loses in a landslide in November, claiming that he's the most unpopular GOP candidate seems ridiculous at this point.
 
People think Trump is charismatic? Does charisma have a different, second meaning I'm not aware of?
 
The United said:
I find it odd that some people label Trump as the most unpopular GOP candidate in history or something similar. He might be that on Red Cafe.

However, he's still leading in polls for many months in swing states and is considered a favorite by many to win. He is even winning popular votes in some general polls. This is despite the fact that he has negatively impacted a lot of people in the U.S. with his actions, such as influencing the Supreme Court’s decisions, mishandling COVID-19, and other issues.

Unless these people have seen the future where Trump loses in a landslide in November, claiming that he's the most unpopular GOP candidate seems ridiculous at this point.
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Its based on his approval - disapproval ratings, which have remained quite high on the disapproval side. Biden was also quite unpopular for different reasons.
 
Raoul said:
Its based on his approval - disapproval ratings, which have remained quite high on the disapproval side. Biden was also quite unpopular for different reasons.
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Yeah, but those ratings are ridiculous, especially since he might still become president, which is the end game here. So, in many ways, they mean nothing.
 
The United said:
Yeah, but those ratings are ridiculous, especially since he might become president despite them. So, in many ways, they mean nothing.
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The only way he would be come President despite them is if his opponent has similar ratings. That's part of the logic of the Dems swapping candidates. At least she has a higher ceiling that she can achieve by activating new voters, where as Trump and Biden will always be stuck where they are.
 
Raoul said:
The only way he would be come President despite them is if his opponent has similar ratings. That's part of the logic of the Dems swapping candidates. At least she has a higher ceiling that she can achieve by activating new voters, where as Trump and Biden will always be stuck where they are.
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My point is that he might actually be more popular than many here think, as all these polls show that a significant number of Americans want him going forward despite all the good and bad things that both him and Biden did. This is concerning for many of us, of course. But whether we like it or not, he is definitely not the most unpopular, and it will be a significant uphill battle for the Democrats, no matter who competes against him.
 
Pexbo said:
You think it will be possible for a Democrat to win 2028 after four years of Trump/MAGA Republican fascism?
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That term gets overused in the same way conservatives think the Dems and Soros are communists. But otherwise, yes it’s what I predict. Trump will inherit a shitshow of an economy and I doubt that gets resolved.
 
The United said:
Yeah, but those ratings are ridiculous, especially since he might still become president, which is the end game here. So, in many ways, they mean nothing.
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You could say the same about polls, what people say they will do and what they actually do are 2 completely different things
 
The United said:
My point is that he might actually be more popular than many here think, as this shows that a significant number of Americans want him to go forward. This is concerning for many of us, of course. But whether we like it or not, he is definitely not the most unpopular, and it will be a significant uphill battle for the Democrats, no matter who competes against him.
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I understand that, but what I'm saying is that the idea that he's more popular than some may think isn't born out in any of the numbers. He was comparably unpopular in 2020 and lost by over 7 million popular votes. The only thing that made it appear close was the nature of the electoral college. So either way you slide or dice it, Trump is far more unpopular across the entire nation than he is popular.
 
KirkDuyt said:
People think Trump is charismatic? Does charisma have a different, second meaning I'm not aware of?
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It's more that other Republicans can't replicate him. Trump seems a natural at entertaining his base and he's good in front of the camera's.

DeSantis was awkward and weak. Same for JD Vance who is not doing too well in front of many camera's.
 
Sweet Square said:
Early days but are there any polls which put Harris ahead ? So far only seen Trump still ahead.
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There's only one poll that was done after Biden pulled out and she seems to be -2 nationally against Trump. I'm sure we will see a slew of new polls released in the coming days that will tell us more.
 
Florida Man said:
That term gets overused in the same way conservatives think the Dems and Soros are communists. But otherwise, yes it’s what I predict. Trump will inherit a shitshow of an economy and I doubt that gets resolved.
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I mean, four years ago Trump lost and was trying to subvert democracy to stay in power. Part of the reason it failed is because people who were in a position to do something about it, many of them Republicans, weren't going to let it happen. Many of those have been replaced already by their local parties, and it's not going to get any better if Trump wins. He also has the Supreme Court under his thumb. So it's not exactly the same as calling the Democrats communists.
 
Grey, balding, but this is a good (unopposed) media appearance. Not gonna pretend I know the first thing about the bloke.

 
Raoul said:
There's only one poll that was done after Biden pulled out and she seems to be -2 nationally against Trump. I'm sure we will see a slew of new polls released in the coming days that will tell us more.
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Kamala needs to be organising rallies and public appearances as soon and plentifully as possible. I think she's decent on the stump, but struggles in more intimate settings.
 
Red in STL said:
You could say the same about polls, what people say they will do and what they actually do are 2 completely different things
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It's not the same. In polls, not many people will say they are voting for the other candidate, whereas in those approve-disapprove ratings, many will eventually vote for their own candidate.
 
Red in STL said:
You could say the same about polls, what people say they will do and what they actually do are 2 completely different things
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Yes, but I think with quite a few of our fellow Caf contributors, this does not seem to register. :confused:
 
nimic said:
I mean, four years ago Trump lost and was trying to subvert democracy to stay in power. Part of the reason it failed is because people who were in a position to do something about it, many of them Republicans, weren't going to let it happen. Many of those have been replaced already by their local parties, and it's not going to get any better if Trump wins. He also has the Supreme Court under his thumb. So it's not exactly the same as calling the Democrats communists.
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It is self evident that authoritarianism is much more a feature of the American right than the left at this point.
 
Raoul said:
I understand that, but what I'm saying is that the idea that he's more popular than some may think isn't born out in any of the numbers. He was comparably unpopular in 2020 and lost by over 7 million popular votes. The only thing that made it appear close was the nature of the electoral college. So either way you slide or dice it, Trump is far more unpopular across the entire nation than he is popular.
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But that was in 2020. We are talking about 2024, where he currently seems to be winning the popular vote at this point, which bucks the usual trend for a GOP candidate and supports my point. Of course, most of us hope that Harris can chip it away but it is getting really close to the election day and becoming a bit uncomfortable.
 
The United said:
But that was in 2020. We are talking about 2024, where he currently seems to be winning the popular vote at this point, which bucks the trend and supports my point. Of course, most of us hope that Harris can chip it away but it is getting really close to the election day and becoming a bit uncomfortable.
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He may or may not win the popular vote. The numbers of the present are largely an emergent property of chaos on the Dem side that are built around the idea that Biden is too old. They may be quite different by the time we get to November after 3-4 months of Harris campaigning.
 
Raoul said:
He may or may not win the popular vote. The numbers of the present are largely an emergent property of chaos on the Dem side and may be quite different by the time we get to November.
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Many of us hope so. At this point, I don't care if he wins the popular vote, as long as Harris can win the Electoral College.
 
Jev said:
He’s leading the polls and has been for months, how is he not the favourite?
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"For months now" fails to take into consideration that he's not running against Biden anymore. Harris polled better in a matchup with Trump than Biden did, and Biden's chances were still within the margin of error.
 
nimic said:
I mean, four years ago Trump lost and was trying to subvert democracy to stay in power. Part of the reason it failed is because people who were in a position to do something about it, many of them Republicans, weren't going to let it happen. Many of those have been replaced already by their local parties, and it's not going to get any better if Trump wins. He also has the Supreme Court under his thumb. So it's not exactly the same as calling the Democrats communists.
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That doesn’t describe fascism and the supreme court isn’t under his thumb. If anything, it just shows that the system did its job and took the trash out. I’ve also had people tell me that Florida is under fascism because it’s DeSantis as governor. It really is an overused term.
 
Florida Man said:
That doesn’t describe fascism and the supreme court isn’t under his thumb. If anything, it just shows that the system did its job and took the trash out. I’ve also had people tell me that Florida is under fascism because it’s DeSantis as governor. It really is an overused term.
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Maybe it's overused, but there's no doubt MAGA has a lot of fascist traits. The system working is also not necessarily an argument against a movement having fascistic tendencies. It just means the system isn't fascist, which it obviously isn't.
 
nimic said:
Maybe it's overused, but there's no doubt MAGA has a lot of fascist traits. The system working is also not necessarily an argument against a movement having fascistic tendencies. It just means the system isn't fascist, which it obviously isn't.
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Their goal (or at least Trumps goal) is fascism. He even wanted to "suspend the Constitution" when the courts didn't give him what they want.
 
Florida Man said:
That doesn’t describe fascism and the supreme court isn’t under his thumb. If anything, it just shows that the system did its job and took the trash out. I’ve also had people tell me that Florida is under fascism because it’s DeSantis as governor. It really is an overused term.
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Not under his thumb? They literally just ruled that a President (and we know that this only refers to MAGA presidents) have almost complete immunity from criminal prosecution.
 
WI_Red said:
Not under his thumb? They literally just ruled that a President (and we know that this only refers to MAGA presidents) have almost complete immunity from criminal prosecution.
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Going against precedent that the SC itself had established (unanimously) in United States v. Nixon, in 1974.
 
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