That just isn't the case. Trump is the clear favorite either way. The replacement has to build national name recognition in no time, Republicans will be able to easily attack the chaos of the Democratic party, and the the new candidate will be put under a lot of scrutiny and new negative stories are sure to pop up.
I think there are some clear upsides to switching, but it doesn't make the Democrat the favorite all of a sudden.
Okay almost no chance is perhaps a rather sizeable exaggeration.
Would you disagree though that if the Democrats act now and get someone credible in to replace Biden it gives them a far better chance of winning? Amounting to going from having almost no chance to having a strong chance.
.In 1961, the Central Intelligence Agency tried to use Castro's love of ice cream against him. Every day at the time, Castro ordered a chocolate milkshake from the Havana Libre Hotel lunch counter. Richard Bissell Jr., the CIA deputy director for plans, offered Sam Giancana and Santo Trafficante, Jr., the heads of the Chicago and Tampa crime families, $150,000 in order to assassinate Castro.
They gave a pill of botulinum toxin to a waiter with the goal of putting it in Castro's chocolate milkshake, but the pill froze to the side of the hotel's freezer and broke.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fidel_Castro_and_dairy
Okay almost no chance is perhaps a rather sizeable exaggeration.
Would you disagree though that if the Democrats act now and get someone credible in to replace Biden it gives them a far better chance of winning? Amounting to going from having almost no chance to having a strong chance.
Even though the polls don't really show it, Biden on the top of the ticket WILL make downballot dems suffer too.
If they don't have the courage to stand up to him, swing-state dems deserve to go down with the ship.
I think it gives them a better chance, but maybe not a far better chance. And certainly not a better chance than Trump.
The upside is that voters may perceive the Democrats as the party willing to listen and adjust their approach, while the Republicans stick with their maniac. But people tend to overestimate the chances of a hypothetical candidate, because all their flaws haven't been exposed yet.
That much is obvious. Conversely, if Dems do turn out to vote on specific issues (abortion always springs to mind), then we may see a situation where Dems actually outperform expectations like they did in 2022, which would help their Presidential nominee. Another thing that could help Dems is R voters feeling a bit smug about winning because of Biden's collapse, and in the process, turning out in lesser numbers.
This argument isn't as sound as you think it is, Biden already has max name recognition, so how is he going to turn things around when almost everybody dislikes him? Can turn it right back into the other direction, everybody already knows all there is to know about Biden, so its not salvagable.
Some other candidate that isn't Biden, is very, very likely not going to have a whopping -20 approval rating, there are basically only upsides getting rid of Biden, and no downsides having him replaced.
This seems fine
Guy saw the morning consult poll, the only poll that showed a somewhat ok result for him in recent couple of weeks, and decided to dig in based on that, my theory anyway.
They will probably quote +5 in Michigan pretty soon.
Both John Fetterman and Ritchie Torres, who aren't just pro-Israel but have made it the core of their politics, are heavily backing Biden, which may indicate what AIPAC/Bibi wants?
Biden is a lapdog, and since he's more likely to lose, Trump is an even better lapdog... while a more pragmatic, less principled Democrat might care a little more about optics.
Both John Fetterman and Ritchie Torres, who aren't just pro-Israel but have made it the core of their politics, are heavily backing Biden, which may indicate what AIPAC/Bibi wants?
Biden is a lapdog, and since he's more likely to lose, Trump is an even better lapdog... while a more pragmatic, less principled Democrat might care a little more about optics.
The two aren't related. Fetterman and Torres are clearly pro-Israel for their own reasons, and not because AIPAC or Netanyahu are sock puppetting them.
Netanyahu would love it if Biden stays in. Then he has unconditional support from the White House no matter who wins.
Pretty brutal.came here to post this. ignore the tweet and just listen to the audio. he's far gone.
Biden or Trump will do nicely for the Israelis. In Biden, at least they are getting more stability with some parameters. Whereas with Trump they would get wider support for just about anything, but with less stability.
The UK donated some bullets yesterday. Probably won't be enough.Either one will support Israel, that much is obvious.
So i'll take the one who at least will for sure support Ukraine, the lesser evil, because it's very much up in the air if Trump will or not.
I hope NATO here in Europe are ready to take the lead, but I'm not counting on it, the US is an invaluable partner.
Wasn't Fetterman some sort of cool twitter shitposting dem hero until not long ago, or am I confusing him with someone else?
Well America, it was fun.
I suspect Trump and the Rs may have a different interpretation of Prevent WW3 to Europe.Prevent WW3 is something we can all get behind.
The other bolded ones are also noteworthy.
-----------------------
1. Seal the border
2. Carry out largest deportation op in US history
3. End inflation
4. Make US dominant energy producer
5. Stop outsourcing manufacturing
6. Large tax cuts for workers, no tax on tips
7. Defend the Constitution and fundamental freedoms
8. Prevent WW3
9. End weaponization of gov't
10. Stop migrant crime epidemic
11. Rebuild US cities, make them safe, clean again
12. Strengthen/modernize military
13. Keep US $$ as reserve currency
14. Protect SS and Medicare
15. Cancel EV mandate
16. Cut funding for schools pushing gender ideology
17. Keep men out of women's sports
18. Deport pro-Hamas radicals, especially from colleges
19. Secure elections: voter ID, paper ballots, proof of citizenship
20. Unite our country by bringing it to record levels of success
-------------------------
I suspect Trump and the Rs may have a different interpretation of Prevent WW3 to Europe.
Erm, also, end inflation?
Wasn't Fetterman some sort of cool twitter shitposting dem hero until not long ago, or am I confusing him with someone else?
If true, I know I certainly need multiple visits by a parkinsons expert to confirm I don't show any signs of the disease.
It's a disease which famously is light on visual signs.
Hard to say if he's got it or not, but the optics of a Parkinsons expert visiting the WH eight times, isn't good, and will prolong the narrative at a time when the Dems are desperately trying to change it.
