2024 U.S. Elections | Thread Closed

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What is the betting that Trump tries to revoke the 22nd amendment?
It wouldn't be in top 100 things that I would worry about. If he's able to form sentences by the end of his term, it already will be an overachievement.
 
Don't think she did a lot wrong and it's not really constructive to point the finger right now. Trump was winning this regardless of who was on the Dem ticket.
Really, you do not think if they had put forward a middle aged white man (or even a light skinned African American) that people would have not have gone in that direction instead, it is clear from Trumps misogynistic and racist rhetoric that at least half of America is still living in a 1970s carry on film with none of the laughter.

Was America really ready to accept a woman as president, I hate to say I do not think a lot of Americans are.

That Trump is allowed to use the language that he does is quite honestly is staggering, and when he insists on saying Barrack HUSSEIN Obama, like he is insisting in including the "Hussein" lest people forget, and that it should be interpreted as a slur is so obvious and disgusting I cannot express the level contempt I feel.

Trump should have been an easy knockdown had the Dems put up a candidate that all the bigots could still get behind, instead they pushed the margins.

Honestly I dread to think what the next 4 years will bring, or even longer if he revokes the 22nd amendment, or just decides he does not want to leave, this is one of those events that people will look back at through the lens of history (if the human race survives his 2nd term) and ask how and why?
 
Plenty of potential reasons for that beyond 'the ground game.'
Do tell.

She didn't improve on Biden's 2020 in a single county in the whole country. It seems pretty self evident that targeted GOTV operation in swing states did stem some of the bleeding compared to other places where Dems didn't bother to turn out. It just wasn't even close to enough, generic ticket in most averages was about D +2, it landed at R+1.

Idk, I think when you have results like NY +10, NJ+5, IL+4 then it was just beyond anything human could do to stop that tide.
 
Don't think she did a lot wrong and it's not really constructive to point the finger right now. Trump was winning this regardless of who was on the Dem ticket.
Said it at the time, he won when he got shot.

Not just the attack, but those pictures of him with blood on his face and the flag in the background.
 
Don't really think this is relevant, considering Dems moved right just as well

Yes, but this is a problem for the Democrats, not a sweeping generalization for a whole society. After all, Trump lost the popular vote in 2016, he was defeated easily in 2020 and, even this time, he won't even come close to the numbers Biden achieved in the popular vote.


Yes, as a matter of fact. The Democrats have been moving rightward for a while, regardless of how much airtime a loud progressive minority received in right-wing media.

Fair enough, i misunderstood your initial post. Thing is, for me, the discussion about how the centre-left has moved toward the right is a discussion to be had mostly about European politics. In the US, the choice has always seemed to be between right and "more" right. Still, this is a devastating defeat for the Dems that should call for some reflection. They won't do it, but it's good to hope.
 
Said it at the time, he won when he got shot.

Not just the attack, but those pictures of him with blood on his face and the flag in the background.
Still think that was rigged by his team, how can you miss a bright orange beach ball with 8 bullets?
 
This is what I find baffling. The Dems need to come up with a winning galvanising message but Trump just stands up there talking absolute gibberish and wins?

The beer test is still the best predictor of US political election. No one wants to have a beer with Kamala. Personality and charisma will always be decisive.
 
Don't think she did a lot wrong and it's not really constructive to point the finger right now. Trump was winning this regardless of who was on the Dem ticket.
I don't know if Harris is a bad candidate in a metaphysical sense, but the campaign she ran (or rather, others ran for her) seems to have been a big failure.
 
Yeah that's never happened here... *cough* Brexit

People only care about saving face now. Being right. 1up-ping anyone who disagrees with you.

People put those things above what is within their best interests. From the top to the bottom.
Brexit was the same playbook.
 
I feel people are way overthinking the reasons of the defeat, its the economy, if the economy was solid, most wouldn't have cared about open borders or gaza or whatever else, trump did not win the popular vote just because biden wouldn't intervene in gaza or the ukraine war and there is only so much abortion rights can get you.
 
It’s a sad state of affairs that so many people have voted for a guy like Trump to run their country.

But I still find the hyperbolic statements hilarious. Some people are just crazy in general, whether they be on the left or right.
 
This is so much worse than the first time, with tha wars going on, an unhinged Elon Musk involved, Europe progressively turning right as well.

I'm depressed.

Curious about 2028 if he'll back down. Looks the sort to start a third world war to stay in power.
 
I feel people are way overthinking the reasons of the defeat, its the economy, if the economy was solid, most wouldn't have cared about open borders or gaza or whatever else, trump did not win the popular vote just because biden wouldn't intervene in gaza or the ukraine war and there is only so much abortion rights can get you.

Probably. The price of bread is quite ridiculous in the US atm.
 
Thank God Biden stood down or else Trump would have walked it...
He has walked it. Regardless of opponent

Likely to finish on 312. Significant difference in the popular vote. The Senate has flipped. The house looking relatively strong.

Biden and Kamala for varying reasons were terrible political opponents this time around
 
Yeah, they fecked up royally but the country has to be rotten to its core for something like this to be possible in the first place. Around half of the US' population has voted for an anti-democratic and corrupt rapist. They shouldn't even have to run a campaign, Trump should be absolutely uneelectable and the fact that he isn't tells you a lot about the US.

Catastrophic result for Ukraine, catastrophic result for climate change.
You are absolute right regarding the U.S.A being rotten to its core. I´ve seen and experienced it first hand years ago.

What we are seeing now is partly the results of years of growing economic differences between the top 1% and the bottom 60% of income groups. Large scale poverty and poor prospects for making a decent to good life will be a strong motivation to try change it anyway possible.

Unless U.S.A start to address this poor income distribution in way that ordinary Americans can see and relate to, then it is bound to get worse and more extreme with time.

Both the Republicans and the Democrats are guilty of allowing the disparity between the ultra rich and the poor to become so huge. Economic desperation is one big factor in creating an poisonous political climate that we see in the U.S.A today.

The political system and both political parties deserves massive criticism for allowing this economic situation to develop over decades. Do not blame the desperate people, however look at the decision makers for the lack of well thought economic policies over the last 40-50 years.

I will definitely try to push for more help to Ukraine from the Danish government and the EU. We can not allow Putin to succeed in taking Ukraine for both political reasons but also for moral reasons.
 
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Those immigrants are there because of western wars, wars germany was a willing participant in, if you don't want immigrants running for their lives travelling to your country maybe don't bomb the shit out of theirs.

Those immigrants are also welcomed in Germany because they have an aging and declining working population, so much so they can't prop up supporting their workforce nor support pension spending on retirees because, as like everywhere, the current generation pays for the previous generations pension.
 
I have no idea what that is
It’s a great podcast available on BBC Sounds and elsewhere which journeys into the dark undergrowth of modern America a year on from the events of January 6th…”looking for the origins of the story that drove the crowds to storm the heart of US democracy. From conspiracy-soaked barrooms in 1990s Arkansas, via spies in hotel rooms in the shadow of the Kremlin, to anarchic chatrooms on the early internet, this is a search for the answer to one big question: did this just happen, or is somebody trying to break reality?”

https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p0bc3rjy

Series 2 was just released a few weeks ago. The gold standard is covered in it.
 
Maybe the reality is for everyday Joe life's better under Trump?

Beyond the paycuts and tarrifs it comes down to staple food and gas price
Food and gas prices are affected by COVID and the war in Ukraine plus OPEC. We're gonna be paying out of our arse for the foreseeable future because of COVID for one.

Something that wouldn't have changed under Trump for the last four years and won't for his next four/eight/whatever the feck happens next.

The simple fact is that the right are very good at blaming the left and the left are fecking shocking at replying back in kind hence people believe it solely down to Biden/Harris and that Trump will change it.

People cannot see beyond the end of their noses about why gas and food prices are the way they are. They're idiots.
 
It's especially hard to stomach because it seemed like the momentum was with Harris. Trump's disastrous performance in the debates, his evident cognitive decline, the Nazi-style rally at MSG, and the other low-energy rallies with thin crowd numbers going into the last week. I thought America would reject his polarising rhetoric and want stable leadership with women's rights and upholding democracy high priorities. But instead they voted for a convicted felon and civilly liable rapist. It's hard not to feel hopeless and deflated about the ripple effect this will have on the rest of the world.
 
Just as almost the entirety of Europe has done in their most recent elections, to be fair, it's not strictly a US thing. But imo it's more of a reaction towards the left's inability to properly deal with immigration and "woke" rather than people actually obtaininig more right-leaning beliefs, if that makes sense.
Fair enough. I'd say it's also the nominally leftist governments' inability to deal with rising economic inequality, when that's supposed to be their turf.
 
As someone who
1. Supported Bernie in 2016 and am 100% convinced he would have easily beaten Trump then
2. Canvassed for Bernie in 2020 and am moderately confident he would have narrowly beaten Trump
3. Likes his policies and policies to his left

Nah. Things have changed now. The US has moved to the right, quite decisively. AOC at one point spoke of open borders or abolish ICE. That makes her dead on arrival. Bernie, who has been less left-wing than her on immigration, is also DOA. In general, the space for left-wing populism opened in 2008 and closed sometime between 2017 and 2022.

Bernie's key to victory against Trump was his popularity with blue-collar whites (Trump's base) and Latinos (who have swung to Trump in both 2020 and 2024). 8 years of culture war and political polarisation has made these votes extremely difficult for any Dem, including left-wing populists. They might have been floating or gettable but are very likely set in the MAGA party now. AOC never had Bernie's appeal with rural whites, and this election should show that minority-minority appeal is a myth - she has no inbuilt advantage with Latinos at all (quite the opposite IMO). More than that, she shares Bernie's weakness with suburban whites (who were the key for Biden's win). Basically, she all downside, no upside.

2028 Dems have limited chances in the suburbs and with some blue collar workers (white and Latino). The Nebraska independent senate candidate who outperformed Kamala by >10% is a possible type, but will have trouble winning a primary that requires college white voters and black voters. The safest option is a white male moderate, and hope that Trump has turned off enough suburban or Latino voters for next time. 2020 repeat.

Of course, there might be a fundamental shift in these next 4 years that makes all this meaningless, but, unless it's something like climate change becoming an issue, or people suddenly discovering human brotherhood about immigration, I don't see it helping a left candidate. If it's significant inflation caused by tariffs, I can see President Shapiro or Newsom in 2028.
Also would add that by backing Biden/Harris both Bernie and AOC have killed any good will with the American left(Which granted is very small).

They did rally in New York for Jamaal Bowman a few months back and only 300 people showed up. Also the DSA national withdrawn its conditional endorsement of AOC.


The scale of the defeat points to it being multi factorial and I’d imagine Gaza barely even hits the top 3 of those reasons if I’m honest.
Maybe for parts of Michigan but yeah it’s very depressing and bleak that Gaza is likely low on the list for American voters.
 
Not going to go through all these but some aren't true and think you've fallen into right wing talking points. Across most of Europe there's an odd perception that crime is now out of control but if you actually look at the data it couldn't be further from the truth, the reason is right wing media and racist political groups pushing a certain agenda.

There's no easier way to push people to vote right than scare them on such issues.
He's also talking shite and regurgitating the usual AfD tripe.

I live in Germany since 2005 and his BS about streets being unsafe and every single train station a crime hotspot is ridiculous. Loved the comparison with Poland and the "migrants living on welfare" tired trope.

This guy is as right-wing as it gets and doesn't have a single leftist bone in his body.
 
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Why should Gaza effect your everyday America really. We know the majority don't give a care regarding what's happening outside of thier bubble.
Half of them probably haven't have even stepped outside of their fecking town.
 
Realise that there are far bigger issues but it's going to be bizarre seeing him probably hand over the World Cup in 2 years!
 
He's also talking shite and regurgitating the AfD tripe. I live in Germany since 2005 and his BS about streets being unsafe and every single train station a crime hotspot is ridiculous.
And my family visited Germany recently like he visited Poland and we felt perfectly safe.
 
Harris was campaigning with Liz fecking Cheney, for heaven's sake.

The idea that the Democrats are too woke and progressive is ridiculous. Getting people to actually believe it is the most successful operation of the modern American right.

It's also an own goal though because the lines between the culture war discussions and fighting against the likes of Trump on a moral/value basis get very blurred.

If you're going to make an election a competition on morals and values you have to be very clear what your actual policy is because otherwise assumptions get made. Most people don't follow politics closely enough to separate truth from the noise.

I think politicians everywhere struggle with this in this social media age, there's too much opinion and campaigning. If it's not policy they need to be clear it's not a matter for government.
 
Food and gas prices are affected by COVID and the war in Ukraine plus OPEC. We're gonna be paying out of our arse for the foreseeable future because of COVID for one.

Something that wouldn't have changed under Trump for the last four years and won't for his next four/eight/whatever the feck happens next.

The simple fact is that the right are very good at blaming the left and the left are fecking shocking at replying back in kind hence people believe it solely down to Biden/Harris and that Trump will change it.

People cannot see beyond the end of their noses about why gas and food prices are the way they are. They're idiots.

Tariffs and tax breaks for the wealthy are sure to change that! No one ever heard of tariffs increasing inflation, right?
 
No need to overanalyse. Americans blamed Biden and Dems for the inflation.
 
Trump's policies are said to be inflationary (tariffs etc). Guess we'll see if voters punish the Republicans in 2028.
 
No need to overanalyse. Americans blamed Biden and Dems for the inflation.

The failure was less about the prices and more about the messaging around those prices.
 
Do tell.

She didn't improve on Biden's 2020 in a single county in the whole country. It seems pretty self evident that targeted GOTV operation in swing states did stem some of the bleeding compared to other places where Dems didn't bother to turn out. It just wasn't even close to enough, generic ticket in most averages was about D +2, it landed at R+1.
My issue is I've heard this stuff before.

Clinton was believed to have superior ground game to Trump in 2016. See for example these headlines: Clinton holds huge ground game advantage over Team Trump, Trump’s get-out-the-vote effort 'not even close' to Clinton’s, experts say, Hillary Clinton's secret weapon: her ground game, Ground Game: Democrats Started Fall with 5-to-1 Paid Staff Advantage, Exit poll of early voters shows Clinton's huge ground game advantage over Trump. And then what happened? Trump won the presidency. He outperformed Clinton in the swing stages and won the electoral college comprehensively, but Clinton performed better in other states where it didn't matter. Hence her substantial advantage in the popular vote.

Then as time went by we found out the ground game was not as good as hyped. Hence why I call it a myth. It's an Obama-era holdover.
 
Trump's policies are said to be inflationary (tariffs etc). Guess we'll see if voters punish the Republicans in 2028.
Trump almost won in 2020 despite the economy being in shambles. They didn’t care. And many argued that it wasn’t his fault, Covid did it, etc. They applied a different logic this time around.

Having said that, the U.S. presidency is decided by a small number of votes in a small number of states. These can swing.
 
Why should Gaza effect your everyday America really. We know the majority don't give a care regarding what's happening outside of thier bubble.
Half of them probably haven't have even stepped outside of their fecking town.
The issue with Gaza is that when you add it to Afghanistan and Ukraine it paints a picture of a world in flames and Dems unable to put the fire out.

This means that the previous pitch of "there is chaos with Trump, we will bring normalcy" is less effective.
 
Those immigrants are also welcomed in Germany because they have an aging and declining working population, so much so they can't prop up supporting their workforce nor support pension spending on retirees because, as like everywhere, the current generation pays for the previous generations pension.
Indeed.

As in previous years, more people died than were born in 2022. The excess of deaths over births rose further to 327,000 (2021: 228,000).

Germany's population growth relies heavily on immigration and its steadily aging population represents a considerable challenge for its economy.

Immigration is pretty much unavoidable for Germany.
 
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