2024 U.S. Elections | Thread Closed

[Raoul]

I'm a first timer and am leaving all the info posting to the vets. Not gonna lie, I'm lost on most of it anyway!

The easiest way to look at all of this is there are only 7 US states that matter tonight. Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada.

Harris is banking on winning the "blue wall" states, which are the first three listed above to win the Presidency. Its not her only path to win but it is the most plausible one.

Everything else outside the 7 states is mostly irrelevant noise.

 

[JakeC]

Because the rurals report first.

The whole ball game is in Metro Atlanta and Chatham (Savannah)

do we know anything about the turnout in Atlanta?

 

[caid]

Because the rurals report first.

The whole ball game is in Metro Atlanta and Chatham (Savannah)

Good, good thats reassuring. I'll find something else to panic about then

 

[FootballHQ]

We'll have half the early votes in PA in a few mins.

Will see what it says and then call it a night.

 

[Chip]

Just for the noobies, the only thing that matters right now is these 7 states:

-GA (Trump now winning with 19% of votes in)
-NC (Harris winning with 2% in)
-PA (closes now)
-MI (hasn't closed yet)
-WI (same)
-AZ (same)
-NV (same)

Maaaybe Iowa will be a thing too. All of the rest is white noise. If you try to interpret it you would probably get it wrong. Keep calm.

How important is PA? Do you think Harris has a chance if Trump takes it? Obviously not theoretically speaking, but wouldn't that be very dooming?

 

[calodo2003]

De La Soul!

 

[Raoul]

Ohio numbers look odd

In 2020, Biden jumped out to a massive lead until Trump came roaring back late to win comfortably.

 

[unchanged_lineup]

Will see what it says and then call it a night.

Mail in votes, my mistake

 

[Laurencio]

Huge turnout in Philadelphia apparently

That should be a good sign for Harris.

 

[Reapersoul20]

There was some sort of correlation between the two groups as I recall. I’ve no idea how that was arrived at mind you.

Yeah, very odd. Probably just contrarianism.

 

[langster]

Fox lost one of the best broadcast journalists they have ever had, if not the best, when they lost Chris Wallace.

 

[altodevil]

How important is PA? Do you think Harris has a chance if Trump takes it? Obviously not theoretically speaking, but wouldn't that be very dooming?

No Harris needs it now almost certainly

 

[Man of Leisure]

How important is PA? Do you think Harris has a chance if Trump takes it? Obviously not theoretically speaking, but wouldn't that be very dooming?

PA is very important. If Trump wins GA and NC, Harris MUST win PA.

 

[Carolina Red]

DecisionDeskHQ leaning Trump now

They were this morning

 

[diarm]

The CNN app is great by the way. I’ve got my own magic wall right on my phone!

 

[Reditus]

Forgive me, but I only watch cnn every 4 years.

I had no idea John King was married previously to Dana Bash

 

[altodevil]

They were this morning

Sure - around 58%. They've ticked up to 72% now since polls starting closing. Big jump.

 

[Krakenzero]

How important is PA? Do you think Harris has a chance if Trump takes it? Obviously not theoretically speaking, but wouldn't that be very dooming?

PA is probably the most important state.

If Trump wins PA that leaves Harris with very few paths to victory. The next best would be winning one of either NC or GA (both will do) plus one of either NC or IA.

 

[MTF]

AP called Florida for Trump, if anyone was hopeful about getting that.

 

[Djemba-Djemba]

They were this morning

For feck sake.

 

[JakeC]

9% larger turnout in PA.

 

[Raoul]

How important is PA? Do you think Harris has a chance if Trump takes it? Obviously not theoretically speaking, but wouldn't that be very dooming?

90% plus chance of winning the election if she wins PA according to one of the models. More below....

Spoiler

 

[ThierryHenry]

They were this morning

A bunch of those aren't exactly projections/ predictions, they're saying it's a toss up/ too close to call.

 

[Enigma_87]

Atlanta votes are in so the margin is narrowed as expected

 

[FortunaUtd]

AP called Florida for Trump, if anyone was hopeful about getting that.

Noone should have been hopeful about that, state of Florida

 

[Utd heap]

AP called Florida for Trump, if anyone was hopeful about getting that.

They weren't.

 

[Yagami]

The easiest way to look at all of this is there are only 7 US states that matter tonight. Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada.

Harris is banking on winning the "blue wall" states, which are the first three listed above to win the Presidency. Its not her only path to win but it is the most plausible one.

Everything else outside the 7 states is mostly irrelevant noise.

I see. This is why you're one of my favourite people on here!

Why do the other states not matter as much? Or is that a daft question?

 

[Morty_]

Florida called for republicans, to the surprise of very few.

 

[InfiniteBoredom]

Trump leads 90-26

STOP THE COUNT!

do we know anything about the turnout in Atlanta?

Good. Don't know about % yet but in raw votes volume they will exceed 2020.

 

[Sweet Square]

 

[MTF]

NYT Needle page, but not any estimates yet: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/11/05/us/elections/results-president-forecast-needle.html

 

[Precaution]

All hail your new orange cheese overlord

 

[Raoul]

I see. This is why you're one of my favourite people on here!

Why do the other states not matter as much? Or is that a daft question?

Because depending on the state, Democrats or Republicans are always expected to win because their voters consistently outnumber the opposition. The only 7 where that isn't the case are the 7 swing states.

 

[Abizzz]

How is she leading in Ohio? Columbus, Cincinnati and Cleveland really fast at counting or something?

 

[ThierryHenry]

Who do you trust abortion

 

[FortunaUtd]

I see. This is why you're one of my favourite people on here!

Why do the other states not matter as much? Or is that a daft question?

Not a daft question but an easy answer. Because they have one candidate as the certain winner.
The only interesting ones, and the ones who decide the election, are the ones where it is not clear who wins.

 

[Enigma_87]

Noone should have been hopeful about that, state of Florida

I wasn't personally but didn't expect such wide margin.

 

[Mickeza]

Trump vote share is going up in the rural counties in Georgia by 1-3 points. Georgia does look good for Trump…up in Cherokee too.

 

[Krakenzero]

I see. This is why you're one of my favourite people on here!

Why do the other states not matter as much? Or is that a daft question?

Because the difference between both candidates is too big to be realistically feasible for one to leapfrog the other. They are easy to predict and are therefore counted in advance for each candidate.

The exception might be Iowa, that was seen as safely red but a reliable late poll gave that state to Harris by a 3% margin.

 

[Raoul]

How is she leading in Ohio? Columbus, Cincinnati and Cleveland really fast at counting or something?

Because Cincinnati, Cleveland, and Columbus have already reported most of their votes, which tend to lean Dem in the larger cities. Many rural counties remain uncounted, which once that happens will slowly allow Trump to catch and pass her.