2024 U.S. Elections | Thread Closed

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Fixed numbers though don't say that much. It's more the percentage of eligible voters turning up that is interesting to me. The US gained about 25 million people between 2008 (Obama's first election) and 2019 (Trump's latest). The US has gained about 23 million people since 2019. I think those are the kinds of numbers that are hard to comprehend from a European perspective where the growth is a lot more flat.
You’re right but I’m lazy
 
Yes though with the caveat Trump has two of the top six election turnouts in history I think, 74.2 million in 2020, 62.9M in 2016. His 2020 figure is the second highest ever (Obama has 3 and 4, Hillary 5, then Trump). Biden’s 2020 number of 81.2M is insane.

Last time a republican won the popular vote was Dubya in 2004. HW beat Dukakis by like 9 million in 1988 then got Ross Perot’d in 92.
Not in terms of percentage of eligible voters. 2020 was highest in that term since like 1910 at 66.6%, but 2016 was very mediocre at 60.1%. Neither cracked top 5 or maybe even top 10 though.
 
I think the views in here are largely reflective of the the biases we have all built into our own timelines and sources of news, which are likely predominantly male POV focused.

I think women have been pissed off for years post-Dobbs and the polls have underestimated this. The switch from Biden to Harris has given women, a core part of the Dem base a shot, in the arm and rekindled that righteous anger. That has driven enthusiasm and coordination crucially the last few months. It seems the narrative is now catching on.

Trump hasn't helped himself with his campaign but if Harris wins, this will be the main reason.

The fact that women were going to turn out and have been energized by the attack on reproductive rights has been quite clear ahead of today, though.

Anyway, the mood in this thread hasn’t exactly been stable, and mere pictures of queues outside polls being dominated by men in certain districts seemed to be enough to dampen a lot of optimism in here :lol: expecting a few twists and turns still.
 
Not in terms of percentage of eligible voters. 2020 was highest in that term since like 1910 at 66.6%, but 2016 was very mediocre at 60.1%. Neither cracked top 5 or maybe even top 10 though.

You can't compare election turnout from the 19th century with modern elections. The pool of eligible voters was very different, for example. If 2020 was the highest since 1910, it's effectively the highest we should care about.
 
Midnight UK time.

I sent this to a friend in France earlier, just subtract 1.

The swing states close at the following times in France

Georgia 1am
North Carolina 1:30am
Pennsylvania 2am
Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan at 3am.
Nevada at 4am

Thanks!
 
Someone yesterday (I think, maybe the day before) listed some specific areas to look out for in terms of results as potential indicators of what’s to come. Anyone know when that was? Be keen to have that to hand.
 
It really fecking sucks that we’ve lost Twitter. I’d curated a list of people I enjoyed following and used to enjoy election nights.
 
This would’ve been over already if Harris dropped a pokemon go reference
 
The fact that women were going to turn out and have been energized by the attack on reproductive rights has been quite clear ahead of today, though.

Anyway, the mood in this thread hasn’t exactly been stable, and mere pictures of queues outside polls being dominated by men in certain districts seemed to be enough to dampen a lot of optimism in here :lol: expecting a few twists and turns still.

Is gonna be drama swerving till midnight- wednesday
 
Hopefully.
One anecdote, though. My partner worked at the tabulating machine this morning in the only polling station in town. She said that a white, male who looked in his 50's or 60's came to the tabulator and said he had never voted before and wasn't sure what to do with his ballot and showed it to her. He had voted for Trump and no one else in any congressional, state or local races or local bond initiatives. Trump reaches parts that other republicans don't.

Yeah, He definitely brought to vote many people in rural communities that never cared that in essence is not bad
 
Someone yesterday (I think, maybe the day before) listed some specific areas to look out for in terms of results as potential indicators of what’s to come. Anyone know when that was? Be keen to have that to hand.
I bookmarked it.

VA: Chesterfield
GA: Oconee, anything above 33 for Harris is good
MI: Wayne/Macomb, specifically looking at margin for the latter, anything above 46
WI: Waukesha, anything above 40
PA: Erie, win it or lose by < 1 pt
NC: Wake and Mecklenburg, specifically looking at raw votes number vs 2020
NV: Duh, Clark mails
AZ: Pima/Maricopa.
 
I used to love staying up all night to watch the election results. Now I’m just terrified.
Same, yeah. Although I was still in college with Obama's second term and Trump's first, so never went to bed before 3am anyway. Now it's a bit harder with work tomorrow morning :lol:

Think I'll go to bed early and wake up at like 5am when the real results are hopefully coming in, nothing much happens anyway before 1am Belgian time.
 
The fact that women were going to turn out and have been energized by the attack on reproductive rights has been quite clear ahead of today, though.

Anyway, the mood in this thread hasn’t exactly been stable, and mere pictures of queues outside polls being dominated by men in certain districts seemed to be enough to dampen a lot of optimism in here :lol: expecting a few twists and turns still.
Right but our own timelines (or what gets shared here, on a sports-related web forum) are going to be more reflective of vibes and it feels like there's been a disconnect between the vibes and what, like you said, was quite clear empirically or logically reasonable ahead of today.

Social media causing an increasing separation between the real world and projection, making it harder to use it to analyze the real world when the inputs and algorithms and the models don't best reflect reality. Part of that is intentional
 
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