That would be very interesting indeed...
2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress
- Thread starter Raoul
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Everyone should try this (the default is Nate Silvers take):
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/democratic-candidate-appeal/
this is how mine came out despite me thinking Bernie and Warren should be 1 and 2:
CANDIDATE RANKING
Beto O'Rourke 1
Bernie Sanders 2
Elizabeth Warren 3
Sherrod Brown 4
Kamala Harris 5
Julian Castro 6
Joe Biden 7
Kirsten Gillibrand 8
Amy Klobuchar 9
Cory Booker 10
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/democratic-candidate-appeal/
this is how mine came out despite me thinking Bernie and Warren should be 1 and 2:
CANDIDATE RANKING
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I wasn't saying you weren't saying it, I was saying what you were saying wasn't true.
But you are saying what I said wasn't true when I'm saying that in fact I didnt say the thing thought I said.
Everyone should try this (the default is Nate Silvers take):
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/democratic-candidate-appeal/
this is how mine came out despite me thinking Bernie and Warren should be 1 and 2:
CANDIDATE RANKING
Beto O'Rourke 1
Bernie Sanders 2
Elizabeth Warren 3
Sherrod Brown 4
Kamala Harris 5
Julian Castro 6
Joe Biden 7
Kirsten Gillibrand 8
Amy Klobuchar 9
Cory Booker 10
This is how mine came out
Although I'm clearly biased. There's no way Joe Biden and Kamala Harris are this low. I gave very low ratings to Harris and Biden on the millenials and left
I read this twice and still can't understand it. English isn't my first language
Hes arguing the validity of statement X. I'm saying that I didn't say statement X, I actually said statement Y.
I hope Clinton was just remembering when an important event in her life took place with another big incident that happened around the same time and not actually implying that Obama will/might get assassinated.
Everyone should try this (the default is Nate Silvers take):
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/democratic-candidate-appeal/
this is how mine came out despite me thinking Bernie and Warren should be 1 and 2:
CANDIDATE RANKING
Beto O'Rourke 1
Bernie Sanders 2
Elizabeth Warren 3
Sherrod Brown 4
Kamala Harris 5
Julian Castro 6
Joe Biden 7
Kirsten Gillibrand 8
Amy Klobuchar 9
Cory Booker 10
Using Silver's criteria, its somewhat difficult to not have Beto at or near the top. He would probably shade it past Sanders since he seems to be in very good shape with black voters following his viral Kaepernick speech last year.
“The Great Nonsense, 2019”| A summary :
Eboue: In 2008 Clinton said she wasn’t dropping out, implying Obama could get assassinated like bobby Kennedy (in which case Clinton would then accept the nomination).
NiMic: saying she implied Obama could get assassinated is a stretch.
berbatrick: it’s a clear implication.
niMic: she never said Obama would get assassinated if he didn’t drop out. (Footnote:where did this come from? This is a totally different thing to what Eboue said)
Eboue: ? No one said that.
niMic: I was talking to berbatrick
Eboue: But berbatrick was agreeing with me.
niMic: beetlejuice. Repeating it doesn’t make it true.
Eboue: I am repeating what I told you I said which is different to what you said I said.
niMic: I’m not saying you didn’t say “Clinton said Obama would get shot if he didn’t drop out,” I’m telling you Clinton did not say “Obama would get shot if he didn’t drop out.”
Eboue: But you said what I said was the thing that you said I said Clinton said which you said is not true but the thing with what I said about what Clinton said was not what you said what I said about Clinton. (Eboue left out a word but he meant niMic was saying what Eboue said wasn’t true, but Eboue was, correctly, pointing out that Eboue said something different to what niMic said Eboue said. Indeed, what niMic said Eboue said (about Clinton’s comments) was NOT true, but also was not said by anyone until niMic which is the point.)
fishfingers15: I can’t read
Eboue: niMic is telling me I said X and X is not true. I’m telling him I did not say X at all, but Y, and Y is true. As this conversation stemmed from my saying Y the veracity of X is irrelevant.
*lights dim. Raoul enters stage left. He is clutching a 538 article on Beto’s soaring poll numbers across several demographics and muttering to himself. In his right hand is a perfectly cooked medium rare tomahawk steak.)
Raoul: Beto? Ha, more like Bae-to.
—end scene—
Eboue: In 2008 Clinton said she wasn’t dropping out, implying Obama could get assassinated like bobby Kennedy (in which case Clinton would then accept the nomination).
NiMic: saying she implied Obama could get assassinated is a stretch.
berbatrick: it’s a clear implication.
niMic: she never said Obama would get assassinated if he didn’t drop out. (Footnote:where did this come from? This is a totally different thing to what Eboue said)
Eboue: ? No one said that.
niMic: I was talking to berbatrick
Eboue: But berbatrick was agreeing with me.
niMic: beetlejuice. Repeating it doesn’t make it true.
Eboue: I am repeating what I told you I said which is different to what you said I said.
niMic: I’m not saying you didn’t say “Clinton said Obama would get shot if he didn’t drop out,” I’m telling you Clinton did not say “Obama would get shot if he didn’t drop out.”
Eboue: But you said what I said was the thing that you said I said Clinton said which you said is not true but the thing with what I said about what Clinton said was not what you said what I said about Clinton. (Eboue left out a word but he meant niMic was saying what Eboue said wasn’t true, but Eboue was, correctly, pointing out that Eboue said something different to what niMic said Eboue said. Indeed, what niMic said Eboue said (about Clinton’s comments) was NOT true, but also was not said by anyone until niMic which is the point.)
fishfingers15: I can’t read
Eboue: niMic is telling me I said X and X is not true. I’m telling him I did not say X at all, but Y, and Y is true. As this conversation stemmed from my saying Y the veracity of X is irrelevant.
*lights dim. Raoul enters stage left. He is clutching a 538 article on Beto’s soaring poll numbers across several demographics and muttering to himself. In his right hand is a perfectly cooked medium rare tomahawk steak.)
Raoul: Beto? Ha, more like Bae-to.
—end scene—
Join us next week for more “bored guy works from home”
Wait. Waaaait.
I'm having a Tomahawk for dinner.
King
Did anybody mention Hillary?
It's astonishing that she loses to the pussy grabber said to be facing child molestation charges one week before the general election, and she still thinks she can win?
Hope all my old forum family has been well since my extended absence.
It's astonishing that she loses to the pussy grabber said to be facing child molestation charges one week before the general election, and she still thinks she can win?
Hope all my old forum family has been well since my extended absence.
Good man. I’ve cut down on meat a lot last few months, I do treat myself with a good steak every so often to keep me sane
It's not just the fact she lost for me - it's the fact she remains wildly unpopular to the point where she might just be the one Dem who will actually find a way to lose against Trump in 2020. Hilariously disconnected from reality.
Yeah even Silver had Biden at 7th. I think that probably is a reflection he is not as appealing to most as it seems, he just has that name recognition.
Harris is still very much up in the air. I think she could catch fire and become the candidate to beat or she could flame out in another 6 months.
That's true to a degree but I bet Eboue would have Beto much lower because he would score him lower than the Left than I did.
The other thing I didn't think about was relative appeal. For example if Harris does very strong among the black voters it doesn't matter if they prefer Bernie to Beto or vice versa.
She is the female version of Trump.
Say anything and everything....just so she gets elected.
Trump simply lied better.
Good to have you back mate.
It's a bit confusing to me as well. I gave the max to black voters for Booker, so I gave a bit less than that to Harris. So I did that in relative terms.
I tried again with trying to be more relative and it was:
1. Beto
2. Bernie
3. Harris
4. Biden
5. Brown
For my own biases the relative hurt Warren the most but helped Biden alot (I assumed he would steal a lot of party loyalists from everyone else)
how are you lot having Harris so high in that list? I've got her even below Julian Castro. So my list does look wrong but can't get her up any further 
Warrren FTW
how are you lot having Harris so high in that list? I've got her even below Julian Castro. So my list does look wrong but can't get her up any further
I have her dominating the black voting block (her daughter of Oakland was popular there and she is already mobilizing her soriority sisters from Howard Univ. I also have her second to Biden among Party loyalists because of her connections to the old San Francisco political machine, Silicon Valley and potentially Hollywood.
I think people are really overestimating the race factor with Harris.
such early days.
When the debates start clarifying what each stands for, that is when we will know.
When the debates start clarifying what each stands for, that is when we will know.
how are you lot having Harris so high in that list? I've got her even below Julian Castro. So my list does look wrong but can't get her up any further
She seems to have a lot of establishment hype behind her. As in, there are MSM types who keep mentioning her as a leading contender....for no apparent reason other than the fact that various pundits seem to like her.
But there’s the manipulative media narrative factor to consider
Harris will have plenty of establishment/media backing so her chances will depend on who else runs to a certain extent. If, say, Biden doesn't announce himself then she stands a good chance. If he does, she's likely fecked.
Have to ask, is your name taken from that worm in Irvine Welsh’s Filth?
She stands a good chance whether Biden runs or not. Conservative, older Southern black women, the bedrock of past Dem nominees won’t choose an old white guy over her.
LA Bob? Is that you?
Kamala may benefit from a move in the California primary... It's now in march and given the backing she's likley to have she won't be dropping out before then (unless there is a big scandal) ... And home state advantage and a good performance there will give her a lot of delegates... Plus I suspect quite a few others will drop out at that point.
Gut feel this far out is pretty much all I think you can go on (and let's be honest we were expecting bush Hillary this far out from the last one) but I don't think Warren or biden or Sanders will win through... Nor Clinton if she is actually serious about this
and as of now I'd make beto and kamala the 2 favourites...
Which seems in line with the bookies
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2020/democrat-candidate
Will be interesting to see if beto can generate any more momentum over the next 6 months or so... I expect Kamala to be going after trump regularly in the media to keep her profile high
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Addiego switches parties
We should just stop arguing and do the opposite of whatever bankers want.
I for one will pledge my life to Mr. John Hickenlooper because Jamie Dimon told me he's great.
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