Exactly
2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress
- Thread starter Raoul
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Cultists vs Idealists.
I mean, it probably was the right move with Joe Biden as a candidate
incredible how it is still touch and go
Spot on. And all the keyboard warriors that ridiculed this need a healthy dose of humble pie
Yes but that would be the mother of all surprises.
Ah yes, because a person is too old so you go and vote for the narcissistic megalomaniac.
For a weird reason, it might have helped Trump in red counties. I think it was here a graph showing his lead higher than in 2016 in these red counties with the highest number covid deaths.
So let’s forget about all others counties, and focus on Fulton at the moment.
72% reporting, Biden winning by 46 points, 399k total votes.
If he can hold that margin, extrapolated to 100%, that means another 113k votes. Current difference is 118k.
It’s really absolutely possible.
72% reporting, Biden winning by 46 points, 399k total votes.
If he can hold that margin, extrapolated to 100%, that means another 113k votes. Current difference is 118k.
It’s really absolutely possible.
Still a long shot though right? Biden needs to win almost 80 percent of the remaining votes.
Quite literally with Biden
How often does an incumbent get defeated in America? I have been left to believe not often.
I was one of those. Though I dont disagree Biden isn't the best they could do - I still believe Sanders/Warren would have gotten wiped off the map in the general. This one specifically that is.
Models are garbage in garbage out. The poll data are inherehntly shit. Building fancy models on top of susceptible data is not sound
Last one was George Bush Sr in 1992, before him Carter in 1980, then Ford in 1976, then Hoover in 1932
Also, how is the senate race looking?
'Murica for you
Have Georgia stopped counting?
I think Bush senior was the last one. Prior to that Jimmy Carter.
Basically reliant on Georgia, which probably isn't good.
So when I went to bed, Biden was the big favourite with the bookies, when I woke in the middle of the night, Trump was the big favourite, now I’ve woke again and it’s very close with Trump slight fav but both tweeting that they think they’ve won.. 
Is it just really, really close? And which are the crucial states now? And, somebody who understands it better than me.. who is going to win?
Is it just really, really close? And which are the crucial states now? And, somebody who understands it better than me.. who is going to win?
But neither Bernie nor Warren got anywhere near enough votes in the primaries. Not enough Democrats voted for them in the end. Why do we think more independents/undecideds would have voted for Sanders?
I'd have preferred him as he's an actual leftist unlike Biden but I'm not at all convinced he would have done any better. Democratic turnout is huge; it's not like Democratic voters stayed at home en masse. Trump, against all odds, managed to even increase his own base. Not sure how you prevent that with Bernie Sanders.
And if they end up predicting the right result within the state margin of error in the majority of states, how do you explain that? Garbage models tend to be wrong much more often that they're right, and very accurate models tend to be wrong a few times and right most of the time. Which category do you think they will fall into?
I'd say the bigger problem is models are designed to make complicated problems look simple. So people read them in a simplistic way, because of course I can read that one number they've boiled down from thousands of numbers, and misinterpret the findings. So we might agree that sharing the polling numbers with the public is a garbage idea, just for very different reasons.
Think last was Jimmy Carter. It’s not often at all
Not too sure about that - Biden's entire platform was "I'm not Trump". Nothing to offer to blue collar folks in battleground states. Bernie would have connected better.
I could be way off, but that's my 2 cents after a six pack
Bush senior in 92.
Numbers unchanged for me. WHere are you getting this from?
Trump was able to make the socialist tag stick a bit on Joe Biden. Joe. Biden. He would have hammered Bernie or Warren with it and it would have been a bloodbath.
No. It was George HW Bush
I did a quick country survey and if your maths checks out (I'm too tired rn to do it myself), it is very possible because the undercounted ones are blue (mostly about 80% counted vs the state at 90%).
Exactly. I am saying doing all rallies, reopening economy etc despite the covid energized hos base more than Democrats playing nice and cautious games.
Carter & GH Daddy Bush
cant believe those epic lincoln project ads didnt make a difference
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