2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress

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Who was here claiming the other day that Biden's campaign had run a blinder? Apparently sitting in a basement while the other guy kept going to rallies was a masterful move.

I hope he wins, but feck me - how the Democrats can feck up not one, but two fecking crisis (SARS, racism) and not be able to capitalize is mind boggling.
Cultists vs Idealists.
 
Who was here claiming the other day that Biden's campaign had run a blinder? Apparently sitting in a basement while the other guy kept going to rallies was a masterful move.

I hope he wins, but feck me - how the Democrats can feck up not one, but two fecking crisis (SARS, racism) and not be able to capitalize is mind boggling.

I mean, it probably was the right move with Joe Biden as a candidate
 
This could have been prevented with a less anemic Dem ticket. Bernie/Warren and we wouldn’t even have this discussion. You would have to try really hard to run a worse campaign than Biden did.

Spot on. And all the keyboard warriors that ridiculed this need a healthy dose of humble pie
 
Maybe next time don't run a senile old fecker as your Candidate when you have a population of 350million and that's the best you can come up with.
Ah yes, because a person is too old so you go and vote for the narcissistic megalomaniac.
 
I don't even think covid had much to do with this.

Dems just need to fight dirty just like GOP.
For a weird reason, it might have helped Trump in red counties. I think it was here a graph showing his lead higher than in 2016 in these red counties with the highest number covid deaths.
 
So let’s forget about all others counties, and focus on Fulton at the moment.

72% reporting, Biden winning by 46 points, 399k total votes.

If he can hold that margin, extrapolated to 100%, that means another 113k votes. Current difference is 118k.

It’s really absolutely possible.
 
How often does an incumbent get defeated in America? I have been left to believe not often.
 
Spot on. And all the keyboard warriors that ridiculed this need a healthy dose of humble pie
I was one of those. Though I dont disagree Biden isn't the best they could do - I still believe Sanders/Warren would have gotten wiped off the map in the general. This one specifically that is.
 
Nate Silver's predictions were that a landslide was possible, but not at all likely (less than 1 in 4 chance), that Biden's popular vote % would be no lower than 51% and no higher than 56%. How far off you do you think he'll be on the core prediction that Biden will win, but not in a landslide? Or would you prefer to focus on that one big number that is not stated with even a medium level of confidence?

I think what he's reaffirmed is that he's a bit of a douchebag, but the models are quite accurate in most scenarios if they're interpreted correctly.

Models are garbage in garbage out. The poll data are inherehntly shit. Building fancy models on top of susceptible data is not sound
 
So when I went to bed, Biden was the big favourite with the bookies, when I woke in the middle of the night, Trump was the big favourite, now I’ve woke again and it’s very close with Trump slight fav but both tweeting that they think they’ve won.. :lol:

Is it just really, really close? And which are the crucial states now? And, somebody who understands it better than me.. who is going to win?
 
Spot on. And all the keyboard warriors that ridiculed this need a healthy dose of humble pie
But neither Bernie nor Warren got anywhere near enough votes in the primaries. Not enough Democrats voted for them in the end. Why do we think more independents/undecideds would have voted for Sanders?

I'd have preferred him as he's an actual leftist unlike Biden but I'm not at all convinced he would have done any better. Democratic turnout is huge; it's not like Democratic voters stayed at home en masse. Trump, against all odds, managed to even increase his own base. Not sure how you prevent that with Bernie Sanders.
 
Models are garbage in garbage out. The poll data are inherehntly shit. Building fancy models on top of susceptible data is not sound

And if they end up predicting the right result within the state margin of error in the majority of states, how do you explain that? Garbage models tend to be wrong much more often that they're right, and very accurate models tend to be wrong a few times and right most of the time. Which category do you think they will fall into?

I'd say the bigger problem is models are designed to make complicated problems look simple. So people read them in a simplistic way, because of course I can read that one number they've boiled down from thousands of numbers, and misinterpret the findings. So we might agree that sharing the polling numbers with the public is a garbage idea, just for very different reasons.
 
I was one of those. Though I dont disagree Biden isn't the best they could do - I still believe Sanders/Warren would have gotten wiped off the map in the general. This one specifically that is.

Not too sure about that - Biden's entire platform was "I'm not Trump". Nothing to offer to blue collar folks in battleground states. Bernie would have connected better.

I could be way off, but that's my 2 cents after a six pack
 
Not too sure about that - Biden's entire platform was "I'm not Trump". Nothing to offer to blue collar folks in battleground states. Bernie would have connected better.

I could be way off, but that's my 2 cents after a six pack
Trump was able to make the socialist tag stick a bit on Joe Biden. Joe. Biden. He would have hammered Bernie or Warren with it and it would have been a bloodbath.
 
So let’s forget about all others counties, and focus on Fulton at the moment.

72% reporting, Biden winning by 46 points, 399k total votes.

If he can hold that margin, extrapolated to 100%, that means another 113k votes. Current difference is 118k.

It’s really absolutely possible.
I did a quick country survey and if your maths checks out (I'm too tired rn to do it myself), it is very possible because the undercounted ones are blue (mostly about 80% counted vs the state at 90%).
 
For a weird reason, it might have helped Trump in red counties. I think it was here a graph showing his lead higher than in 2016 in these red counties with the highest number covid deaths.
Exactly. I am saying doing all rallies, reopening economy etc despite the covid energized hos base more than Democrats playing nice and cautious games.
 
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