How would we know everything is above board?
2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress
- Thread starter Raoul
- Start date
- Status
How would we know everything is above board?
It sounds like you are making the same errors Garry South made in his op-ed to the LA Times last week.
Independents are not synonymous with people 'halfway between establishment Dems and Reps'. Every single progressive friend I have is a registered non-partisan independent. I also know quite a few libertarian leaning independents that hate corporate Dems as much as the progressives hate corporate Dems but they will be voting in the Rep primaries.
The idea that Biden's base is non-partisan independents is really an absurd suggestion unsupported by facts. Most of the centrist moderates are already registered Democrats now not independents. A massive chunk of those independents (perhaps even a majority) are progressives like myself.
The process.
When the debates are arranged for example.
Registering of new voters.
All the stuff they screwed Bernie over with the last time.
They don't have to be in one category. They may be centrists, left leaning voters and right leaning voters or any combination thereof. Bottom line for Biden is he has positive numbers which is a very good thing for any POTUS candidate (much less a leading one) to have. How he positions himself going in will also matter since the narrative on the Dem side has shifted left since the last cycle.
Personally I am going to be betting against Biden finishing in the top 2 in the futures markets. The odds will be good and Biden is far weaker as a candidate than the establishment people are recognizing. Personally I think Trump would absolutely savage Biden in the general election.
We'll see how long his "positive numbers" last. They are all just smoke and mirrors at this point based on name recognition and people pushing agendas. Do you want to make a bet on how Biden finishes in the Democrat primary?
The issue will be the platform.
Obama came with a lot of promise and governed much like Clinton. He in fact caused the 2016 debacle by sponsoring that witch.
Over the last several decades people have been screwed over by both parties..
They are fed up.
Last edited:
My favorite type of anti-Trumper is the one who has grown disillusioned with him because he hasn't been evil enough
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/washington-secrets/it-starts-ann-coulter-for-president-2020
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/washington-secrets/it-starts-ann-coulter-for-president-2020
Makes sense
Coulter is simply an attention seeker.
Right wing media plays to the ignorance of its audience.
Reaffirming their distorted beliefs.
It'd depend on external circumstances and what happens during the electoral run but I reckon Biden would win against Trump. In retrospect it's clear how much people fecking despised Hilary and yet she still won the popular vote. And Trump's gotten even more unpopular since then. Plus Biden's polling numbers against him are alright. I don't think he's the right choice at this stage but he'd probably still win unless Trump still improves in popularity.
Trump will not be the candidate.
But no other Republican can reinvent the Republican party. So the Democratic candidate will likely win.
But dissatisfaction will set in quick if policies do not help the majority.
Health Care , Living wage.....which is directly reflected on 80% of people living paycheck to paycheck.
That is not their fault. It is wages not keeping up with rising costs including/especially health Care costs.
But no other Republican can reinvent the Republican party. So the Democratic candidate will likely win.
But dissatisfaction will set in quick if policies do not help the majority.
Health Care , Living wage.....which is directly reflected on 80% of people living paycheck to paycheck.
That is not their fault. It is wages not keeping up with rising costs including/especially health Care costs.
I also think we have to distinguish between whether Biden is the appropriate candidate and whether we think he will win. The big difference (among several) between him and Hillary is that her numbers coming in were always a bit shaky, whereas his seem to be the inverse - high favorables, low unfavorables. Ultimately, I think the field will get reduced to one progressive and one establishment(ish) type, which could be Bernie v Biden, unless Beto runs which will throw the entire race into disarray where he likely becomes the frontrunner since he will be one of the few who can draw from every faction.
My gut feel is it will be neither Biden or Bernie.
But the centrist and progressive will reflect a lot of both these men.
With one proviso. the Centrist candidate will move left on key issues like Health care even if it is not Universal Health Care.
@Raoul is putting far too much blind faith in the numbers this early out.
Let's revisit January 2015 and have a a peek at the numbers :
(notice how Trump had the highest unfavorable rating of all Republican candidates in Jan.2015 for New Hampshire voters)
Let's revisit January 2015 and have a a peek at the numbers :
(notice how Trump had the highest unfavorable rating of all Republican candidates in Jan.2015 for New Hampshire voters)
I'm not really going to argue against the rest of your post, but didn't Trump basically have the highest unfavourable rating right up until he won the nomination? Pretty close, at least. He only became popular after winning the nomination, when all the Never-Trumpers assumed the position.
@Raoul is putting far too much blind faith in the numbers this early out.
Let's revisit January 2015 and have a a peek at the numbers :
(notice how Trump had the highest unfavorable rating of all Republican candidates in Jan.2015 for New Hampshire voters)
That race was a complete anomaly where you had one completely apolitical demagogue bullying the entire field into submission. That of course wont happen on the Dem side.
That's about how I remember it as well. Its why polls this far out on favorability don't mean much.
I'm trending in that direction as well. Age will be a factor this time imo.
Bernie mentioned it. But he said he feels healthy and you can have a 50 year old who is not well.
But it may be a factor for voters.
As for me, Bernie has earned my vote. I will caucus for him. In the GE I will vote for the eventual nominee unless its a shit storm like in 2016 and the DNC had not learned anything.
I hope he runs, especially after what happened last time. He would however have to choose a viable VP who is younger.
The 2016 Republican Primary was unusual in that they had far more candidates than was typical in recent memory, the party base hated the President and the base was up in arms with grassroots populism.
The 2020 Democrat primary is already resembling the Republican race with the unusual number of candidates already declaring, they hate the President and the midterms indicate grassroots populism in the base.
Then consider that historically, early polling this early out has not been meaningful for Democrats even without a primary as chaotic as 2020 will be
My prediction on the record is that Biden will not be the nominee. I'll even go further and say he will be knocked out of the race after the Super Tuesday with California.
^remember this is the first year ever that California is relevant to the primaries with their voting moved up much earlier. That is going to influence the Democratic primary in a more progressive direction in a way the Democrat primary has never been influenced in the past. You have to take into account these structural changes and how they influence the momentum of election cycles.
It also boosts Harris' prospects against Biden with her already locking up solid Silicon Valley and Hollywood money. If Harris beats Biden in California on the first Super Tuesday (my bet) Biden is done as a candidate imo
If he does get the nomination he definitely will pick someone who agrees with his policies and I think it will be a younger person as you say.
btw he impressed in his speech in SC at a Baptist church. African American voters are key for the primary and he understands that.
That's likely why Tulsi Gabbard is in the race - to raise her profile and prog-cred and in the process position herself as a Bernie loyalist in the hope that he picks her if he wins the nomination.
That Pete guy is really impressive on paper. Young, gay + married, combat veteran, Rhodes Scholar, small town mayor. It doesn't get much better than that on paper for cross over appeal. If he can raises his orator game and is a solid debater he has some serious potential.
Or Harris who sounds impressive when I have heard her speak. A woman and an African American/Indian.
Will be a great ticket. And as @oneniltothearsenal says, the California primary being pushed up will help both Bernie and Harris.
good point.
We've had a lot of campaign launches earlier than usual even by US standards. Well, Ojeda has gone one better and now quit the race https://theintercept.com/2019/01/25/richard-ojeda-president-drops-out/
Once Sanders starts campaigning, he will get a lot of support building up, because what he wants is what people want.
the fecking nerve of this woman
What the feck is taking him so long
She'll say she's sorry for her mistakes. They all will
Consider her record as San Francisco’s district attorney from 2004 to 2011. Ms. Harris was criticized in 2010 for withholding information about a police laboratory technician who had been accused of “intentionally sabotaging” her work and stealing drugs from the lab. After a memo surfaced showing that Ms. Harris’s deputies knew about the technician’s wrongdoing and recent conviction, but failed to alert defense lawyers, a judge condemned Ms. Harris’s indifference to the systemic violation of the defendants’ constitutional rights.
Ms. Harris also championed state legislation under which parents whose children were found to be habitually truant in elementary school could be prosecuted, despite concerns that it woulddisproportionately affect low-income people of color.
She laughed that year when a reporter asked if she would support the legalization of marijuana for recreational use. Ms. Harris finally reversed course in 2018, long after public opinion had shifted on the topic.[
That case is not an outlier. Ms. Harris also fought to keep Daniel Larsen in prison on a 28-year-to-life sentence for possession of a concealed weapon even though his trial lawyer was incompetent and there was compelling evidence of his innocence. Relying on a technicality again, Ms. Harris argued that Mr. Larsen failed to raise his legal arguments in a timely fashion. (This time, she lost.)
She also defended Johnny Baca’s conviction for murder even though judges found a prosecutor presented false testimony at the trial. She relented only after a video of the oral argument received national attention and embarrassed her office.
there’s Kevin Cooper, the death row inmate whose trial was infected by racism and corruption. He sought advanced DNA testing to prove his innocence, but Ms. Harris opposed it.
Last edited:
no prosecutor should be eligible to run for higher office. or at least they should have to run as a republican. what do democrats stand for if this evil cnut is a front runner?
She must answer clearly why she did what she did.
Not just say sorry.
Not just say sorry.
A day after the Kochs say they aren't funding Trump, their ex-employee endorses Biden.
He sees one of the big issues in dealing with Trump, it's clear he doesn't know how to counter it.
I think focusing on his own policies, not getting drawn in to the spectacle, is the answer.
I think focusing on his own policies, not getting drawn in to the spectacle, is the answer.
Honest words from Sanders, I appreciate that. You don't usually hear things like this from a top level politician.
My problem is that his idea of how Trump succeeds is still one of a top-down mechanism: A demagogue installs fear in his target audience, i.e. he kind of fools them into something they wouldn't have come up with on their own:
So he basically exempts Trump's followers from their own doings - if someone would feed them the correct information, they wouldn't be racists. It's a problem of leadership. I already criticized that idea in his remarks on the Florida election last year.
From his analysis, it's not really understandable why some people do get attracted to Trump's propaganda (or right wing ideology in general) and others don't. And concerning the first-mentioned: why is it so in the first place, that someone who's not a lying, paranoid loon is at such an insurmountable disadvantage with that group, like Sanders correctly observed?
Exploring this side of the problem would prompt further uncomfortable questions about the general state of society and a significant number of its inhabitants, that aren't (and probably can't be) explicated from any politician. It would also touch the very classical type of left wing view of politics/society Sanders seems to adhere to, at least from what I've seen so far.
Last edited:
That snake Ann Coulter said last night that she basically finds Trump's incessant and pathological lies charming and funny. I wonder if she would be as accommodating if it was her doctor, lawyer, publisher or a service she was paying for who lied on an hourly basis.
The right wing are the ultimate ***** and snowflakes. They are brainwashed to believe they are the smart ones and the libtards are dumb ones. They are afraid of the brown person coming to kill them yet their conservative environment is consuming them slowly and in plain sight. The middle class conservatives and the fake christians have shown themselves to be ignorant of the facts and bloated with irrational hatred.
25% of this country seem to be batshit crazy and totally accepting of the hardships that can be erased over 4 or 5 election cycles where they use their common sense. Unfortunately bigotry and gullibility are spinach to the republican popeye. My solution would be to attack right wing media with a new fairness doctrine. It won't solve the whole problem but it would certainly give reasonable thinkers a chance in conservative families and strongholds.
The apology tour candidates don't for the most part come across as particularly convincing since they're all obviously doing it because they want more power. These things would mean more if the person doing it wasn't running for Prez.
Noah does a good job of nailing most of them here, especially Gillibrand.
Last edited:
- Status