2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress

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Reditus said:
I was in Arizona last year. My wife and I were in Vegas and had a trip to the Grand Canyon. The guy who collected us from our hotel was a trump supporting flat earther. He was batshit, but strangely nice. But anyway we stayed in a ranch in Arizona and it was one of the best times of my life and from what I could tell between the banter between the folks there most were dems.

Anyway that’s my little story for the night.
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I did a day trip from Vegas to GC, we only had a few hours there but it was worth the effort, the views are stunning, the sheer size is dumbfoundingly beautiful.

It's an extraordinary country.
 
Must confess, if the lives of so many people wasn't at stake, it would have made for a pretty nice binge. It has got everything, drama action, twists, subplots, flashbacks, loads of CGI. Not to mention the news channels try to make it as dramatic as possible. Feels less like an election and more like a made for TV event.
 
Is there any chance that Biden will win the congressional district from Nebraska? He's leading there but apparently they counted the mail in votes early.
 
MuFc_1992 said:
What about WI? Trump is leading there but margin isn't high enough so, I think they are counting mail in ballots as well.
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WI has a big amount missing from Milwaukee which is a predominantly blue county. Might swing, might not but the picture is only 65% complete and he has a 5 point lead. There's still 35% more votes to count.
 
Sanche7 said:
Must confess, if the lives of so many people wasn't at stake, it would have made for a pretty nice binge. It has got everything, drama action, twists, subplots, flashbacks, loads of CGI. Not to mention the news channels try to make it as dramatic as possible. Feels less like an election and more like a made for TV event.
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Tv shows about American elections/politics are brilliant for that exact reason.
 
Jesus, the age of these guys ...Trump 74, Biden 77, not forgetting Nancy Pelosi 80!

Whereas JFK was 43 when made president, Obama 47.

If Biden runs for the next election he’ll be 81 ffs!
 
owlo said:
Im so mad at those needles. I’ve basically had a melt dow, a litre of vodka, and hugely doubted my ability and it seems his fecking needles are the thing that are miscalculating most. Not impressed!
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Needle was pretty good at FL though... as soon as it saw that outperformance in Miami-Dade it swung hard for trump.... let's hope it was too trigger happy on GA.
 
WI_Red said:
I think your best bet is to improve your odds by generating a bunch of good karma. So about that bottle of Macallan 25.....
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Hmm I’m probably too drunk and depressed to enjoy it right now. Will have to wait. Georgia looks super promising given that the missing votes are postal and the Atlanta suburbs.
 
Sky1981 said:
That's not how the betting markets works. They rarely tips their odds towards anything, it's based on algorithm of multiple bets being placed.

At best they start their opening odds months ago and from then on it's the market's that driving the odds. Alot would also depends upon the volume of betters, if the amount of betters is small then you'll get a very wide margin.

They have their advantage in that they're not poll who needs click, greed is the only pure drive for these odds so it's more objective, but beyond that it's just the numbers of eventual losers putting a bet against the eventual winner.

In most surprise results the odds are always wrong, because by nature the odds are being given by the majority.
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I didn't mean to imply that these political markets are literally a scientific algorithm, they aren't, and they mainly react to weight of bets.
But the analogy is that these bets are individually all pieces of evidence that push the "model" (market) in a direction that more accurately represents the state of play. Some of those bets will be based on scientific models - there will be some very smart people playing/hedging these markets with data analysis models to back up their opinion.

Don't want to go off topic so might not post more on this today.
 
SinNombre said:
So for all the people worrying right now,

Biden is likely to win AZ and WI.

He needs to win either PA (50-50) or MI (I have no idea but let's say 50-50 for the sake of argument).

At this point, Biden may have a 75% chance of winning. It will be the narrowest of wins but it will be a win.
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The way King was explaining the numbers count to vote in PA, I would expect Biden to take it.

Strong democratic holds in Pittsburg and Philly have a wave of numbers left to count and they can overturn the deficit on their own.
 
owlo said:
@Kentonio could it be possible that Nate kohns needles fecked up and not my model??? Maybe... I’m a bit despondent and tired, but just maybe.
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I think so. It seemed like after Miami-Dade there was a huge shift where even a lot of the pundits started assuming everything was going Trump’s way. Arizona should have told them it wasn’t all one way traffic. I’m still not fully convinced that we can get GA, but I’ve been feeling like it’s a chance all night.
 
Wilt said:
Jesus, the age of these guys ...Trump 74, Biden 77, not forgetting Nancy Pelosi 80!

Whereas JFK was 43 when made president, Obama 47.

If Biden runs for the next election he’ll be 81 ffs
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More odds of Kamala Harris stepping in for him than Biden running for a second term I reckon
 
This guy on CNN, King, you get tired just listening to him, he's like a machine.
 
Wilt said:
Jesus, the age of these guys ...Trump 74, Biden 77, not forgetting Nancy Pelosi 80!

Whereas JFK was 43 when made president, Obama 47.

If Biden runs for the next election he’ll be 81 ffs!
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McConnell is 78 as well. US politics seems to be quite gerontophile.
 
owlo said:
Hmm I’m probably too drunk and depressed to enjoy it right now. Will have to wait. Georgia looks super promising given that the missing votes are postal and the Atlanta suburbs.
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I was / am too terrified to crack open a bottle. May enjoy a scotch if Georgia flips blue
 
Giggs86 said:
Wasn't eligible to vote at 2016 because I wasn't a citizen yet but if I could I would've voted for him over Hillary.

As for political views - I am for opening up the country and against shutdowns, for lower taxes, for strong military. I don't like the blm-defund-the-police sentiment that is prevalent in the liberal cities which the democrats have ruined with their progressive experiments. There's a reason why people are fleeing those cities to more conservative suburbs. I like that Trump puts unapologetically America first, I like how he dealt with Isis and Iran, I like his historic peace brokerings in the middle east. I think he dealt with the outbreak better than Biden would've ever done, as he was never going to put a travel ban on China (remember Pelosi apologizing for Trump and dancing in Chinatown? Biden would've been right there with her).

His divisive and cnutish personality will always outshine the good things he has done but this isn't a popularity contest.
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Can’t agree with much of that, but no worries. Appreciate the reply.

You live in a red or blue state?
 
Just extrapolate Philadelphia and Pittsburgh numbers to 100% and its a 600k swing in those counties alone. Using current %'s, which seem realistic. That's the current deficit.
 
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