2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress

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mu4c_20le said:
No, but the odds shifted slightly in his favour, and will continue to move throughout the night in accordance to more results and news coming in, and betting patterns. Just goes to show how silly some people were when they freaked out earlier and said its over.
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To be fair, when the stakes are so high it’s not a surprise that people be skittish!
 
RK said:
There's some logic to this but movement is not a reason to disregard betting markets, in fact it's a better reason to accept them. They do overreact at times, but responding to new evidence is how any scientific models work. Some of these shifts can be large depending on that new information. The next movement is rarely predictable.
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That's not how the betting markets works. They rarely tips their odds towards anything, it's based on algorithm of multiple bets being placed.

At best they start their opening odds months ago and from then on it's the market's that driving the odds. Alot would also depends upon the volume of betters, if the amount of betters is small then you'll get a very wide margin.

They have their advantage in that they're not poll who needs click, greed is the only pure drive for these odds so it's more objective, but beyond that it's just the numbers of eventual losers putting a bet against the eventual winner.

In most surprise results the odds are always wrong, because by nature the odds are being given by the majority.
 
calodo2003 said:
Mostly rural votes still outstanding. Maricopa & surrounding environs are what the first tranche of results mainly constitutes.
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Looking at county maps of Arizona, the encouraging thing is that all counties are around 70-80% except Apache County: only 31% of votes have been counted there. In 2016, Hillary won that county with 65% of the vote.
 
Is it fair to say this closest since Gore and Bush easily. What’s the closest ever?
 
calodo2003 said:
Apologies for reading the screen wrong.

What shared political views are most important to you? Did you vote for him in 2016?
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Wasn't eligible to vote at 2016 because I wasn't a citizen yet but if I could I would've voted for him over Hillary.

As for political views - I am for opening up the country and against shutdowns, for lower taxes, for strong military. I don't like the blm-defund-the-police sentiment that is prevalent in the liberal cities which the democrats have ruined with their progressive experiments. There's a reason why people are fleeing those cities to more conservative suburbs. I like that Trump puts unapologetically America first, I like how he dealt with Isis and Iran, I like his historic peace brokerings in the middle east. I think he dealt with the outbreak better than Biden would've ever done, as he was never going to put a travel ban on China (remember Pelosi apologizing for Trump and dancing in Chinatown? Biden would've been right there with her).

His divisive and cnutish personality will always outshine the good things he has done but this isn't a popularity contest.
 
MuFc_1992 said:
What about WI? Trump is leading there but margin isn't high enough so, I think they are counting mail in ballots as well.
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I’ll say it again. We “should” be ok here. State law prevented the counting of all early voting till today. Dane (Madison) and Milwaukee counties are super dem heavy and primarily were early.
 
SHIT, needle just went Biden in GA!
 
Giggs86 said:
Wasn't eligible to vote at 2016 because I wasn't a citizen yet but if I could I would've voted for him over Hillary.

As for political views - I am for opening up the country and against shutdowns, for lower taxes, for strong military. I don't like the blm-defund-the-police sentiment that is prevalent in the liberal cities which the democrats have ruined with their progressive experiments. There's a reason why people are fleeing those cities to more conservative suburbs. I like that Trump puts unapologetically America first, I like how he dealt with Isis and Iran, I like his historic peace brokerings in the middle east. I think he dealt with the outbreak better than Biden would've ever done, as he was never going to put a travel ban on China (remember Pelosi apologizing for Trump and dancing in Chinatown? Biden would've been right there with her).

His divisive and cnutish personality will always outshine the good things he has done but this isn't a popularity contest.
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He has literally Killed thousands
 
@Kentonio could it be possible that Nate kohns needles fecked up and not my model??? Maybe... I’m a bit despondent and tired, but just maybe.
 
So for all the people worrying right now,

Biden is likely to win AZ and WI.

He needs to win either PA (50-50) or MI (I have no idea but let's say 50-50 for the sake of argument).

At this point, Biden may have a 75% chance of winning. It will be the narrowest of wins but it will be a win.
 
SinNombre said:
So for all the people worrying right now,

Biden is likely to win AZ and WI.

He needs to win either PA (50-50) or MI (I have no idea but let's say 50-50 for the sake of argument).

At this point, Biden may have a 75% chance of winning. It will be the narrowest of wins but it will be a win.
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I think we'll be overjoyed with a narrow win (even though it's an indictment of modern politics that someone like Donald Trump has a serious chance of getting reelected).
 
Only 0.4%, but that suggests some Atlanta stuff came in big?

What's the betting Cohn now says his finger slipped or something...
 
owlo said:
@Kentonio could it be possible that Nate kohns needles fecked up and not my model??? Maybe... I’m a bit despondent and tired, but just maybe.
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I think your best bet is to improve your odds by generating a bunch of good karma. So about that bottle of Macallan 25.....
 
InfiniteBoredom said:


Not giving up on it, even NYT is backtracking a bit now.
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Im so mad at those needles. I’ve basically had a melt dow, a litre of vodka, and hugely doubted my ability and it seems his fecking needles are the thing that are miscalculating most. Not impressed!
 
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