So trump is winning?
2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress
- Thread starter Raoul
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Miami Dade is to Florida as Florida is to the rest of the US
Are we not looking like we're approaching the nightmare scenario?
That Trump is slightly ahead on election night, and it will then come down to a couple of states counting mail-in ballots over the next couple of days. If that happens, and Biden then edges it, it's going to be carnage isn't it?
Could be worse, he could be more than slightly ahead. We've been told for the last week or so this would not be called on election night, it'll need a few days at least with all the mail in/absentee ballots. These ballots should favour Biden, apparently.
Biden finally ahead in VA now that DC area votes are in.
He's my bae.PY now swinging blue online.
Is Paraguay really that interested?
Will Cartman moan about this?
Yes, Biden's hope is based on uncounted mail ballots, which predicted to be in his favor, but as we speak it's trumps'
It's promising, would've get any further ahead than that right now. It's a weird election.
Just woke up to this shitshow. You lot had one job.
Thank feck for Virginia, well done those who weren’t worried about it
Relentless. I don't know how he does it.
I'm not posting about it in here, but the movement in the betting markets has been absolutely fascinating over the last two hours.
Also - I've only got the BBC on mute but the Mooch has just shown up!
Also - I've only got the BBC on mute but the Mooch has just shown up!
No I think it’s a good time to be awake. Optimism rising
I think Biden looks in good shape in PA, but this is precisely what Trump has been setting up ... “mail in ballots are fraud” - unsurpringly it’s the mail in and early ballots left to count here. Let’s see what shenanigans Trump tries to pull off.
Come on Virginia!
Ah, yeah, I didn't mean to say it's on because of some Amish support for Trump in Arizona. It's on because we finally got an unexpected win for Biden (at least unexpected for me). Including the tweet was just meant as a bit of comic relief in these tense times, I literally laughed out loud seeing it.
This is depressing.
After all trumps' bs, the fact this is so close is mind-boggling.
John King is absolutely amazing.
Yes - reactive rather than predictive.
Clearly the general population doesn't think it is that bad.
Not sure I get what that tweet actually means.
A solitary sign of hope in the Senate.
CNN calling VA for Biden, phew.
Not seeing cnn but have seen John King do this before and I thought it is a bit irritating tbf
How the hell can people justify voting for Lindsay Graham, he won by +15...
Hickenlooper too right?
What is Arizona doing? They’ve been on 75-76% votes counted for over half an hour now.
211k vote difference in GA. If Dems get the same margin from Atlanta and its Suburbs like Abrams did, they lose. If they do about 3/4 points better, they might squeak through.
NC is similar. Trump is favoured but about 55/45 chance, since the votes left are smattering of blue precincts, a big red one, and a bunch of mails.
NC is similar. Trump is favoured but about 55/45 chance, since the votes left are smattering of blue precincts, a big red one, and a bunch of mails.
Virginia called for Biden by CNN.
Everything that we're seeing right now is a combination of reactive to live data, and predictive of what comes next. Given that the NYT, 538 etc don't have a live predictor this time (as far as I can see?), then seeing how millions of people are assuming the balance of the election has tilted is useful, and very interesting.
I understand the wish for it not to bombard the thread however.
I'm not seeing particularly positive signs from the 3 midwestern ones, the margin is either constant (PA, MI, over 10 points) and WI is increading (from 3 to 5). Is the optimism because no early/mail votes have been counted? Or is it based on areas? CBA to check the district maps.
e - i've been mostly watching star trek so i might have missed something obvious in the past hour or two
e - i've been mostly watching star trek so i might have missed something obvious in the past hour or two
Also mind-boggling.
Considering the margins and the outstanding votes being absentee ballots and large dem centres, you could make a case for Biden being favourite here.
Huh? Are you now reading incorrectly as well.
I am saying PA is a tossup. OH is done for the last 2 hours. TX is done for the last 2 hours. GA and NC will go Trump as well. AZ is looking good for Biden.
Yeah so from my perspective the movement in the odds is the most valuable thing about them, they're the most sensitive measure we have of momentum. They're worth paying attention to. It's just we can't read into them too much, people can infer a sense of inevitability from the next movement from the size of the last big movement, when as you say there's much more unpredictability than they could possibly account for. The most sensitive measure we have of momentum is still a very flawed one, so it's not really possible to infer that " it's obvious that it is looking very very hard for Biden now " based on the 1.2 for Trump at that point in time, for example. It isn't supposed to indicate that degree of certainty at that point in time because further movement is expected.
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