Thanks I feel like an idiot when it comes to betting odds. I appreciate that
2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress
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Thanks I feel like an idiot when it comes to betting odds. I appreciate that
I'd give it a 65-35 at best. Plus it's not exactly 0-0 at this point, Biden needs to overcome quite a few hundred of thousands deficit from the ballot alone
Close in North Carolina
We should get confirmation of Virginia win soon.
Sorry but if you think PA is done based on what we’ve seen so far, you’re out of your mind.
So that’s good, right? Biden is more likely to win?
No-one thinks they are clueless but the fact they move around through the night is why you can't read into them too much. There's a danger of looking at that 1.2 as a fixed number and drawing conclusions about it that don't hold up just an hour later, and while they're an indicator of momentum, they're not a very steady one.
Fox News calling AZ for Biden.
Like I’ve been saying - North Carolina and Georgia are still in play.
Georgia is tightening a bit as well. Almost certainly won't be enough though.
PY is going to be nailbiting.
That's absolutely fine but some people were claiming that it's just mindless gambling which is not the case at all . They are using the available information to project what may happen , now that may or may not happen but it's still what the data available at that time projects is the most likely outcome
No worries. The old joke goes something like:
Trump to admit he’s a bit of a knob and lies about everything is 100/1 (or 101. if doing decimal betting).
That means if you bet £10, you lose £10.
Drumroll, cymbal, curtains.
Biden extending his lead in AZ.. Def going blue.
Don’t think that’s in Arizona.
Would put good money on being a tad fake. But, it’s probably in Ohio or Pennsylvania, so they could actually be real.
So the bookies think. Constantly moving. It’s like the polls - nearly impossible to accurately predict!
No, but the odds shifted slightly in his favour, and will continue to move throughout the night in accordance to more results and news coming in, and betting patterns. Just goes to show how silly some people were when they freaked out earlier and said its over.
Arizona was red by 9% in 2012 and red by 3.5% in 2016.
It shifted towards blue, so it is not a surprise if it turns blue this election.
It is also not a surprise if a blue state turns red this election, if it was shifting towards red last time.
It shifted towards blue, so it is not a surprise if it turns blue this election.
It is also not a surprise if a blue state turns red this election, if it was shifting towards red last time.
Are we not looking like we're approaching the nightmare scenario?
That Trump is slightly ahead on election night, and it will then come down to a couple of states counting mail-in ballots over the next couple of days. If that happens, and Biden then edges it, it's going to be carnage isn't it?
That Trump is slightly ahead on election night, and it will then come down to a couple of states counting mail-in ballots over the next couple of days. If that happens, and Biden then edges it, it's going to be carnage isn't it?
Is there somewhere a way to see which states are counting absentee ballots afterwards/last? Feels like that will play a massive role in many states.
fecking Miami dade. Panic inducing.
Fox just called Ohio for trump.
Are we not looking like we're approaching the nightmare scenario?
That Trump is slightly ahead on election night, and it will then come down to a couple of states counting mail-in ballots over the next couple of days. If that happens, and Biden then edges it, it's going to be carnage isn't it?
He's actually behind at the moment because many of the swing states haven't been called yet.
Yeah but did we really expect anything else in 2020?Are we not looking like we're approaching the nightmare scenario?
That Trump is slightly ahead on election night, and it will then come down to a couple of states counting mail-in ballots over the next couple of days. If that happens, and Biden then edges it, it's going to be carnage isn't it?
Checked the odds.. pretty even after Trump being clear favorites before AZ started reporting.
It really is a case of Trump clinging on now.. any slip up and Biden gets it.
It really is a case of Trump clinging on now.. any slip up and Biden gets it.
Ergh.. so tired. Knew I shouldn’t have stayed up for the NFL last night too.. my 9:30am zoom call isn’t going to be fun..
Know I should go to bed but no idea of anything is going to happen.
Know I should go to bed but no idea of anything is going to happen.
There's some logic to this but movement is not a reason to disregard betting markets, in fact it's a better reason to accept them. They do overreact at times, but responding to new evidence is how any scientific models work. Some of these shifts can be large depending on that new information. The next movement is rarely predictable.
So virginia is going as expected so that's good.
It’s always the same. Like the way people were freaking about Virginia earlier. People seem to have forgotten that US elections are usually marathons rather than sprints.
Georgia just went to +1.2 as well. Was at +5 a couple of hours ago.
At some point in life I want to as good at something as John King is at this.
As in, once Florida comes in, if he wins NC and Georgia, and it comes down to the Rust Belt. Clearly a lot still to be determined there, but that seems a fairly realistic scenario for how we end the night.
Which blue state are you most concerned about flipping?
Virginia swinging blue now.
Yeah, not looking forward to that.Are we not looking like we're approaching the nightmare scenario?
That Trump is slightly ahead on election night, and it will then come down to a couple of states counting mail-in ballots over the next couple of days. If that happens, and Biden then edges it, it's going to be carnage isn't it?
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