the first and last time i felt politically hopeful, the week around the nevada caucus. i really thought it was a Big Deal.
2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress
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the first and last time i felt politically hopeful, the week around the nevada caucus. i really thought it was a Big Deal.
I can't believe how some of you are so confident about this. Forget those less than +2, even FL with +2.4 feels like it could go Trump's way. Would have been more confident if PA would have been bigger I guess. But, since Trump and GOP have clearly targeted PA for throwing away the mail votes, it still feels too close for comfort.
Well it was a big enough deal that the wagons were circled. But here we are now.
Cuz the henchmen will flip out once their fuhrer loses tomorrow in a landslide would be my guess?
Hate is powerful. Hate of HRC drove his win. Hate of him will drive him into a jumpsuit (no one hates Biden)
Well yeah hope you're right. But the fact that it's still close in the swing states is infuriating.
But there's no remotely realistic scenario in which Trump wins but the Dems take the Senate. That's like one of those 'blue Texas but Trump victory' election maps.
Taco trucks will gut my religion!
Sorry I can't see Texas, Florida and Arizona going Biden.
Giggsy is that you?
Election Day!
Hopeful but apprehensive. Namely because:
- In the critical swing states the race is a lot closer. It’s the unlikely outcome but certainly not out of reach for Trump there.
- We’ve seen lots of data on early voting etc. which is v positive for the Dems. And whilst high turnout is definitely to their advantage, we don’t yet know what kind of turnout is expected for Trump as most of his goons will vote today. Having said that I’m not sure how saturated his turnout already was from 2016.
- Just got a sinking feeling about what Trump and the GOP are willing to do to win. Emboldened by how Trump has gotten away with so much shit, and immoral enough to cheat their way to a victory, I can’t see this being as straight forward as a simple win or loss. I expect some nonsense in the courts or even if not, some serious civil unrest issues. Having said that, a huge Biden win including taking some of those states which are historically solid red (eg Texas) would go a long long way in helping with this aspect. Also, if there is a real risk of Trump being prosecuted, that may help in him accepting defeat to get a deal. Not sure how real that risk is though.
Equally important is the Senate too. Without it the Biden presidency will get shut down, although the perks of it being NOT Trump do soften it a bit. I.e we are talking about ineffective presidency rather than a rescinding and destructive one. Sadly I can’t see the Senate race going a different way from the Presidential race (although it is more likely the Senate stays red and presidency goes blue, rather than the other way round).
All in all it’s a huge day and I feel like it’ll either be dual jubilation (senate and presidency) or dual doom.
Hopeful but apprehensive. Namely because:
- In the critical swing states the race is a lot closer. It’s the unlikely outcome but certainly not out of reach for Trump there.
- We’ve seen lots of data on early voting etc. which is v positive for the Dems. And whilst high turnout is definitely to their advantage, we don’t yet know what kind of turnout is expected for Trump as most of his goons will vote today. Having said that I’m not sure how saturated his turnout already was from 2016.
- Just got a sinking feeling about what Trump and the GOP are willing to do to win. Emboldened by how Trump has gotten away with so much shit, and immoral enough to cheat their way to a victory, I can’t see this being as straight forward as a simple win or loss. I expect some nonsense in the courts or even if not, some serious civil unrest issues. Having said that, a huge Biden win including taking some of those states which are historically solid red (eg Texas) would go a long long way in helping with this aspect. Also, if there is a real risk of Trump being prosecuted, that may help in him accepting defeat to get a deal. Not sure how real that risk is though.
Equally important is the Senate too. Without it the Biden presidency will get shut down, although the perks of it being NOT Trump do soften it a bit. I.e we are talking about ineffective presidency rather than a rescinding and destructive one. Sadly I can’t see the Senate race going a different way from the Presidential race (although it is more likely the Senate stays red and presidency goes blue, rather than the other way round).
All in all it’s a huge day and I feel like it’ll either be dual jubilation (senate and presidency) or dual doom.
America is a joke.
44% approval. Election still in play.
Absolute failure of a country.
44% approval. Election still in play.
Absolute failure of a country.
Seems unlikely that Trump will win. Whilst it's still possible, everything has to go right for him.
How soon will we know the result?
Trumps odds have come in overnight on Betfair from 2/1 to 13/8.
In weeks rather than hours. The sheer volume of mail-in ballots is going to slow things down and give Trump a window to raise legal action.
My guess is that Arizona goes blue, not the two others. Doesn’t need any of them though!
I'm confident Arizona will. Florida is a coin flip.
However, it's worth noting that there are states that start with processing mail votes before in-person votes. Florida and Arizona both allow early processing, for example so their results could be called on the night. If - and it's a big if, admittedly - Biden wins them then it's basically game over. North Carolina is also expected to release results quite quickly though some late mail ballots might play a part if the election is really close. If not, however, then that's another battleground state that might be called on the night.
I expect Trump and the GOP to raise the threat of legal action in any case though so there's that.
If after all this it's still a close call then god help us all
Yeah, I think this is going to be much tighter than many expect.
If one of those states that's ~2% in Biden's favour doesn't come through for him, then there's more chance more will from a behavioural point of view. Eg, if GA doesn't back Biden, then there's a chance that similar thinking in similar numbers will do so in NC and it marks a trend.
Windmill cancer will devour Chick-fil-a!
And why? Why? The futility!
Very tight with Trump victorious.??
By two (our time) in the morning- possibly.
You chaps talk should talk amongst yourselves and work out your differences because I’m getting very mixed messages here.
The promising thing here is the small number of undecideds. I think it's a lot lower than 4 years ago, and Biden's hitting 50% in almost all of those polls, so should be more reliable.
It all depends on what happens in places like FL, GA, NC, and PA. If Biden wins any of them, the race could be called tonight US time. If Trump outperforms on each of them then it could drag on until all mail in votes are counted in every swing state, which could drag on for days, and with potential litigation on the back end, potentially weeks. This is why it’s critical for Biden to close the deal in one or two of the above states. It would make for a much cleaner and faster result.
Ok, cool. Thanks.
Got a bad feeling about this.
Bear in mind that Trump needs to win pretty much all of these. In every single close state, the margin of error needs to be in his favour. Not impossible and it might be squeaky bum time later but it's a tall order.
Wait until we re-elect Boris, or whatever Donkey the tories put out in front of us.
Dixville Notch and Millsfield both showing swings toward Biden. Good news so far!
I wholeheartedly endorse contempt for the Tories and other reactionary feckwads in other countries, too - but Boris Johnson is an intellectual giant of upstanding moral character compared to Donald Trump. He's a shit person but not as obviously, overwhelmingly crass, deranged, and delusional as Trump.
It’s basically comparing a Big Mac and actual turd, one is more appealing than the other but both have about the same nutritional value.
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