Aw geez I just got it 
2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress
- Thread starter Raoul
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Look at Ady bragging about having a girlfriend.
True that.
Outside the US at least, many thought he was done, after the "Grab 'em by their ****" thing came out. The results were shocking.
I just put a straight bet on Biden to win @ 1.54 - the value seems solid
This is actually the first bet I've placed in a couple of years
I hope I haven't jinxed it!
If AZ and TX go the way of CO, the GOP are proper screwed.Your early data all looks good. For me, it's almost a sure thing. By my very very conservative estimate, D are 48k up right now. 200-300K should vote on the day. He'd need something like 300k and to carry it 60:40 to have any chance. Your state is a bit complicated because of how party registration works. If 82.2% of R voted Trump, he'd have over 1.24M votes alone meaning he carried 100% of the on the day vote. If that's correct, NO independent voters (or D voted) voted for him.) Which would be an impossibility, because to carry on the day voting like that, he'd need them.
Ya I think Biden likely ends up winning by 2 to 2.5 points, essentially similar to Sinema in 2018.
I had a bet agreed with @sun_tzu back in March.
If Biden wins he owes me £100
If Trump wins, i owe him £100.
feckin racist west coast pigeons!Based on my own internal polling I think it's going to look more like this.
You think I’m a potato?
You tricky lawyer, I thought I had you baked into a corner
Biden to win in the 3 midwest states (PA by 1 or 2) and AZ (also very narrow), one of NC and Florida (probably NC, I have faith in Florida being a magical place), and coming close but short in Texas, Georgia, Iowa and Ohio. That's the baseline position I guess? Realclearpolitics is now paywalled so I'm more clueless than usual.
The predictions of Florida and Georgia are basically because of what happened in 2018. Polling was off in one direction in 3 very narrow races featuring both men and women, white and black, moderate and progressive Dems.
For the senate, Maine, Arizona, Colorado, and Alabama look certain (+3-1 = 2). They need 1 of the 2 Georgias or Iowa too? Polling doesn't look great for any of them, I guess Ossoff is the best bet? Montana polling looks as good as any of them really. I doubt Dems are going to win the Georgia 2nd round in the other one.
e - forgot the NC race. that looks very easy.
The predictions of Florida and Georgia are basically because of what happened in 2018. Polling was off in one direction in 3 very narrow races featuring both men and women, white and black, moderate and progressive Dems.
For the senate, Maine, Arizona, Colorado, and Alabama look certain (+3-1 = 2). They need 1 of the 2 Georgias or Iowa too? Polling doesn't look great for any of them, I guess Ossoff is the best bet? Montana polling looks as good as any of them really. I doubt Dems are going to win the Georgia 2nd round in the other one.
e - forgot the NC race. that looks very easy.
Boom roasted
You tricky lawyer, I thought I had you baked into a corner
Whatever happened to Red Dreams
These puns are stuspud. We should mash this up and aim for a sweet frieday party.
And yes @Eboue i know these jokes aren’t funny, but there’s still a latke like.
If Cal Cunningham loses, he should be shot into space. He had the easiest ride to a Senate seat and couldn't wait until after the election to have an affair.
+And Trump's antics in many ways and the danger he represents were an unknown other than the outrageous soundbites - many didn't pay attention.
Having said that. Im not confident still but Im encouraged by those of you who are. Ive seriously put off some major live decisions, purchases etc bc if that feck wit. I dont care that it would be the first small step of many - if he loses Im celebrating big time - especially bc its been such a dire year otherwise.
Fecking lunatic.
Commies abort our savior Donald J. Trump.
Just turned on CNN. Is Trumps makeup guy working with Santorum now?
Also, Icky Ricky is still a piece of shit.
Also, Icky Ricky is still a piece of shit.
What a fkin donkey cokehead is.
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Haley is a sly fox, she could very well get through the primaries. Cruz has the likeability of a gnat and Rubio has the charisma of an acorn. I don't think either have a snowball's chance in hell but then again it is a bunch of idiots voting in the GOP primaries.
Haley being a future candidate is probably the worst kept secret of the RNC. They've been fawning over her since her early governor days. Her stint under Trump was solely designed to give her in an in road with his crowd. Hell they might even try to gain back all the female voters by putting up a Haley/Noem ticket - assuming the patriarchy allows for that.
I tell ya, he's doing his best to hide behind that big red hat. He does not like where this is going at all.
The trouble with this is that Trump has severely damaged the Republican party to where it may need to fracture. You can't have the residue of Trumpism and the Tea Party controlling the power structure of the party, while having previously normal Republican candidates running for President. They are going to have to fight between the Lincoln Project crowd and the crazies at some point to figure out who owns the party.
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I've got at least 20 anti-Cunningham mailers (about 10 for Biden and 10 for somebody called Josh Stein or something?). Anyway, the focus has been on crime, crime, crime, and a few on the Supreme Court and how you can't let Cunningham choose the next justice. Mystifying angle tbh.
Yep. The "something must be done" bit is essentially a signal to the likes of the Proud Boys ... like maybe go find a 'Democrat' judge or two and do what you will.
She's done well. Essentially positioned herself as the only possible candidate to unite both sides. Can only see an old white man as the VP pick though.
The Lincoln Project will back Haley if she was the candidate.
Haley already works around that problematic dynamic by having the Trump support and the establishment Republican support. Lincoln Project will easily back her and many of Trump's ignorant "non-college educated white male" base will just vote for a woman who is "hot". She'll easily bridge that gap from Trumpism to next iteration of GOP psychosis.
Been playing around with some data from a few different internal polls I got my hands on tonight. Here is my updated map
Yes, because she is closer to them politically than Trump. But that doesn't mean she would have the broad support needed to win a nomination, especially given her gender.
I call a landslide win for Biden, I previously predicted a 334 EC win for the Dems, but I think they could do better than this now. If either FL, NC and AZ go blue on the night then it is over for Trump. I am very excited!
Looking at the deep red states is really interesting..
Kansas for example Trump won by 21 points in 2016, the latest polls have him between 7-14 points up this time around
Oklahoma, he won by 37 points in 2016 now between 22 and 29 up.
North Dakota he won by 35 points in 2016 now between 14-19 up.
These are massive swings in the numbers and if that shift is seen in the swing states, Trump has no chance whatsoever in any of them!
Looking at the deep red states is really interesting..
Kansas for example Trump won by 21 points in 2016, the latest polls have him between 7-14 points up this time around
Oklahoma, he won by 37 points in 2016 now between 22 and 29 up.
North Dakota he won by 35 points in 2016 now between 14-19 up.
These are massive swings in the numbers and if that shift is seen in the swing states, Trump has no chance whatsoever in any of them!
Is she even hot though? Is she politician hot? I don’t see it. She looks like Tulsi’s ugly older sister
This week is going to be crazy. @Raoul can we get your assessment of miami dade. Can't believe it's been 4 years!
I don't see why she wouldn't. She's been building it for years. Who else do you feel has broader support?
I wish I knew what’s going on down there. It looks like Trump had picked up a fair number of Cubans by fear mongering them about socialism. Biden looks to have likewise picked off a good number of white voters from Trump due to Covid and the fact that he doesn’t have Hillary’s likeability baggage, which would explain why he’s up slightly in most polls. If the latest Morning Consult and Quinnepiac numbers are even remotely accurate then he has a decent shot at winning tomorrow.
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