2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress
- Thread starter Raoul
- Start date
- Status
Not to mention that those 44% are for Trump, even after everything he’s said and done over the last four years, which to me is even worse. Having just seen a few more news segments where they interviewed a number of Trump supporters, the level of indoctrination is astounding. Just repeating the same buzzwords like “not a politician”, “business man”, “socialism bad”.
Would sum 2020 up perfectly.
Yeah, I feel the betting markets are a far more accurate guide than random polling numbers. Currently about a 38% chance of Trump winning according to the bookies, seems a lot higher chance than many people think.
This is all of us today
Reminder that this is an average of Polls which includes shit like Rasmussen which will drag percentages way down.
Not at all? The betting market fluctuates with what people are betting on. Not really a good indication of anything.
And the totally impartial Trafalgar group.
States like PA are not that close when you filter it to B+ or better pollsters.
The weight of money does tend to indicate likely chance to a reasonably accurate degree though, especially on the exchange where there are literally millions going back and forward. Some people are deluding themselves into believing that there's only a 10% ish chance of more Trump. It really is far closer than that.
What time will Trump win?
The Tories are an absolute shower.
But Trump is very clearly something else entirely.
44%. It’s practically a wash that half of Americans are still saying “We’re cool with this guy”.
It’s a grotesque thought.
Trump o'clock
Windmill cancer will kill our saviour Donald J. Trump... what a turn of events
Mine makes now sense: Windmill Cancer will cheat traditional masculinity?
Next up: your childhood pet, your mother's maiden name and your first job.
It was worse, he said "stand back", not "stand down".
Absolutely - but if you assume voter behaviour is replicated across close-run states, it's not a stretch to assume that we're either looking at a Biden landslide or a too close to call scenario.
Fairly certain that if Biden is declared the winner then Trump & GOP will not accept the result. He’ll probably tweet his cult fans to “stand up” against “the corrupt system”. I hope he fecking gets humiliated.
Yes but the Big Mac at least has the good grace to pretend to be edible.
Some girl I know posted literally two days ago that she's essentially lost her stewardess job because the government aren't giving them the financial help to survive. Today she's proudly voting for that same government Following her makes me lose brain cells.
Following her makes me lose brain cells.Based on nothing but being pessimistic, I think Trump will win.
What time do the results start coming through?
What time do the results start coming through?
Why?
Don't the bookies just follow the polling numbers?
Trump will win and the internet will meltdown.
I'm pretty sure they're hedging because they also got burnt in 2016. The idea that they somehow have some insider information that no one else has is mental.Don't the bookies just follow the polling numbers?
You may need to re-think that.
It really is. It's the same logic as following what the bookies are saying about transfers.
I would've thought they made a killing in 2016?
I'll be honest I've been hitting up value bets all of today, going from 538/Silver forecast.
Come on America, do the right thing today. The rest of the world needs someone not as outright evil as Trump there.
Dunno. I guess it depends on how many people actually bet on Trump four years ago. But you're probably right, whatever they had to pay out was likely well compensated for by all the bets on Hillary.
Interesting prediction from Elton.
I'm not American, so I can't comment on his domestic position. As far as foreign policy is concerned though I don't think Trump is as bad as he's being made out to be. He's just more uncouth.
GW Bush was just as stupid. Trumps probably killed less people than Obama. Frankly I'd much rather he tells Muslims he hates them than he tells them he wants to liberate them and then does so by bombing their families whilst they sleep.
Also internationally, it's in everyones interests that people take on China aggresively. It'll slow their roll a little - which is no bad thing. China's imperialist dreams will be just as bad as America's imperialism, at least the American empire is on the wane.
GW Bush was just as stupid. Trumps probably killed less people than Obama. Frankly I'd much rather he tells Muslims he hates them than he tells them he wants to liberate them and then does so by bombing their families whilst they sleep.
Also internationally, it's in everyones interests that people take on China aggresively. It'll slow their roll a little - which is no bad thing. China's imperialist dreams will be just as bad as America's imperialism, at least the American empire is on the wane.
The bookies don't make the betting exchange market . The Betfair market makes itself from people backing and laying, like a stock market. The fact that big players are happy to back Donald Trump at odds of less than 2/1, and Biden is freely available for anyone to make 50%+ profit on their investment, indicates that it's hardly the foregone conclusion that many think.
On the other hand, there's the whole thing with pulling out of the Paris agreement, pulling out of the Iran nuclear treaty, pulling out of the WHO... none of this is good news for the rest of the world.
Regardless of what happens, this is absolute nonsense
People are hedging, then, exactly because it's not a foregone conclusion and 2016 serves as a cautionary tale. But all of that is still no reason to think that they know better than the polls.
The big money is not in the top line bets, if you place $100 into Trump to keep odds high enough, you can then make a killing betting another 100 on shit like individual state winner, popular vote margin, EVs. Even at the moment, the lowest odd for Biden 300+ EV and above is 5.00.
- Status