2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress

[Cal?]

This is simply not a true statement. Bernie Sanders is the currently most popular active politician in America. It is hard to be more popular than that isn´t it ? Joe Biden is riding on Barack Obama´s popularity due to being his vice president and him being associated with him. He does not have Obama´s rhetoric skills or charisma that he can rely on when it comes to debating nor does he seem to have any policy idea´s that you can say comes from him originally unlike Bernie Sanders Medicare for all proposal etc. When actual debates starts of in the democratic primary then he can not rely on someone else boosting his numbers for him.

There is a reason that Sanders is not polling well ahead of other potential Dem candidates. Whilst many on here seem to think the further left the better, the world on a whole does not believe that.

Biden's popularity may have a lot to do with Obama, but that is in equal measure due to people wanting to return to Obama's center-left policies as simply an association with the man.

 

[Red Viking]

There is a reason that Sanders is not polling well ahead of other potential Dem candidates. Whilst many on here seem to think the further left the better, the world on a whole does not believe that.

Biden's popularity may have a lot to do with Obama, but that is in equal measure due to people wanting to return to Obama's center-left policies as simply an association with the man.

He is sitting at the top along with Biden quite firmly at the moment and everyone below is generally quite far behind in general, that is polling well ahead of the other candidates. No one is running ahead alone at the moment but the primaries have not started yet either so that is expected. The number one concern voters have is health care and more precisely they want the Medicare for all system implemented and that is a policy that came from Sanders and progressives. This means currently a policy that come from left leaning policies are more popular than the other part of the democratic party. Tuition free education and 15 Minimum wage is also popular proposals. In other words it is not the Clinton wing and her policies that people want to see implemented at the moment.

The Clinton and Obama wing currently offers no solutions to ordinary people problems like stagnant wages for ordinary people or addressing the lack of affordable housing in the areas where the jobs are. The only one that still want the same policies that Clinton and Obama supports in general are upper middle class to wealthy individuals that benefits from it. However working class and middle class people have been forgotten for a long time. Their needs and concerns have to be addressed or risk the democratic party fading away long term by forgetting the real voter base. If the Obama administration and the republican light wing had addressed these concerns a long time ago then Donald Trump would never been able to become President.

America need a democratic party that actually support and stand for ordinary people through policies that address their concerns. The Obama wing have utterly failed to realize this. Their attempt to stay Republican light in a economic sense made the party lose elections in masse in state legislatures, both chambers of congress and the presidency. This dosnt support your opinion that people want to return to more Obama era policies but rather the opposite.

 

[Cal?]

He is sitting at the top along with Biden quite firmly at the moment and everyone below is generally quite far behind in general, that is polling well ahead of the other candidates. No one is running ahead alone at the moment but the primaries have not started yet either so that is expected. The number one concern voters have is health care and more precisely they want the Medicare for all system implemented and that is a policy that came from Sanders and progressives. This means currently a policy that come from left leaning policies are more popular than the other part of the democratic party. Tuition free education and 15 Minimum wage is also popular proposals. In other words it is not the Clinton wing and her policies that people want to see implemented at the moment.

The Clinton and Obama wing currently offers no solutions to ordinary people problems like stagnant wages for ordinary people or addressing the lack of affordable housing in the areas where the jobs are. The only one that still want the same policies that Clinton and Obama supports in general are upper middle class to wealthy individuals that benefits from it. However working class and middle class people have been forgotten for a long time. Their needs and concerns have to be addressed or risk the democratic party fading away long term by forgetting the real voter base. If the Obama administration and the republican light wing had addressed these concerns a long time ago then Donald Trump would never been able to become President.

America need a democratic party that actually support and stand for ordinary people through policies that address their concerns. The Obama wing have utterly failed to realize this. Their attempt to stay Republican light in a economic sense made the party lose elections in masse in state legislatures, both chambers of congress and the presidency. This dosnt support your opinion that people want to return to more Obama era policies but rather the opposite.

Biden is sitting well ahead of Sanders in the early primary polls, not alongside him, probably due to name recognition than anything else. But that's also true for Sanders, let's not pretend only the Clinton/Obama wing have name recognition nowadays.

If all those proposals really are so so popular, why isn't Sanders polling ahead of Biden? It's well documented that Obama didn't go anywhere near those policies.

Somehow Obama utterly failed to deliver what you think the country needs yet remains hugely popular and Biden is polling ahead because of being associated with him?

 

[berbatrick]

Sanders is not nearly as popular as the Caf will have you believe.

I have said before, I doubt he wins the primary, but if he does get through he wins the general. Every bit of polling bears this out.

As for the argument on this page, I think a Democrat who can't ram through M4A and/or free college and/or some curtailment of Citizens United is going to be succeeded by a Republican worse than Trump.

 

[berbatrick]

Biden is sitting well ahead of Sanders in the early primary polls, not alongside him, probably due to name recognition than anything else. But that's also true for Sanders, let's not pretend only the Clinton/Obama wing have name recognition nowadays.

If all those proposals really are so so popular, why isn't Sanders polling ahead of Biden? It's well documented that Obama didn't go anywhere near those policies.

Somehow Obama utterly failed to deliver what you think the country needs yet remains hugely popular and Biden is polling ahead because of being associated with him?

There are many Republican states, for example Kansas, Utah, Florida, where referendums on raising the minimum wage, expanding Medicare, expanding voting rights, all won (all positions held by the left and centre-left of the party), but the party nominees (of all types: conservative blue dogs, centrists, progressives) all lost.
It is because the Dem brand is worse than the policies.

 

[villain]

Why is it such an assured notion that if Bernie goes up against Trump he’ll win?

Generally curious because I don’t see it as that clear cut

 

[Red Viking]

Biden is sitting well ahead of Sanders in the early primary polls, not alongside him, probably due to name recognition than anything else. But that's also true for Sanders, let's not pretend only the Clinton/Obama wing have name recognition nowadays.

If all those proposals really are so so popular, why isn't Sanders polling ahead of Biden? It's well documented that Obama didn't go anywhere near those policies.

Somehow Obama utterly failed to deliver what you think the country needs yet remains hugely popular and Biden is polling ahead because of being associated with him?

He is not that far ahead as you seem to suggest in the polls that we are looking looking at double figure leads. Bernie is a clear number 2. Biden is an established name as he has been known nationally for a very long time comparing to Sanders who only recently got into the spot light in 2016.

Biden benefits from the democratic corporate base that helps giving him coverage in the big media in both direct and indirect ways. As Obama stays in the media spot light all the time it helps Biden by association alone as the coverage he gets is immense compared to Bernie Sanders. This Pr helps promoting Biden´s name immensely through the corporate media and this helps him a lot with building some popularity within the democratic party. A fair few corporate democrats do not like Bernie Sanders either because he is a threat to an easy income they get from corporations and as such will not support him if a corporate democrat is on the ticket. Bernie´s strength is on a national level as he has what you call an cross over appeal that can draw in a lot of anti-establishment crowd that exist in the Republican voter base.

 

[Red Viking]

Why is it such an assured notion that if Bernie goes up against Trump he’ll win?

Generally curious because I don’t see it as that clear cut

Bernie support policies that a lot of Republican voters are sympathetic towards like the anti-establishment crowd that helped elect Donald Trump. They support his Medicare for all proposal etc as well. This is what you call an strong cross over appeal. Bernie can take voters from the Republican party in a way other Democratic candidates can not. This gives Bernie Sanders a massive advantage in a national election.

 

[villain]

Bernie support policies that a lot of Republican voters are sympathetic towards like the anti-establishment crowd that helped elect Donald Trump. They support his Medicare for all proposal etc as well. This is what you call an strong cross over appeal. Bernie can take voters from the Republican party in a way other Democratic candidates can not. This gives Bernie Sanders a massive advantage in a national election.

Why would they vote for him over Trump?
Everything points towards Trump’s support amongst Republicans being as strong as ever.

I can see him winning over some moderate Republicans who don’t put Party over country, but I don’t think that’s a large demographic

 

[Kaos]

Why would they vote for him over Trump?
Everything points towards Trump’s support amongst Republicans being as strong as ever.

I can see him winning over some moderate Republicans who don’t put Party over country, but I don’t think that’s a large demographic

There’s plenty of reasons why working class folk who voted for Trump in 2016 would feasibly snub him in favour of Bernie. The very same people are already feeling the pinch of Trumps policies and slowly realising now their lives are not getting any better, and are most likely worse as a result of his initiatives and broken promises.

Let’s also not forget that a substantial number of Trump voters had voted for Obama in the previous elections, so it’s not insane that they’d vote blue again. Put forward someone like Hillary again though and they’d still vote for Trump even if it meant destroying their livelihoods.

 

[berbatrick]

Why is it such an assured notion that if Bernie goes up against Trump he’ll win?

Generally curious because I don’t see it as that clear cut

I think I've answered this before.

1. Every poll says it. Seriously look at this page from 2016, isit not even close. Or any subsequent ones.

2. 2016 Hillary vs Trump was literally the 2 most unpopular candidates in history. Popularity ratings (favourables) have been a good predictor of the election winner for many decades (above and beyond the h2h polls which I linked in the first point). Bernie's in positive double digits while Trump is deeply negative.

3. Hillary was weak among independents while they have a favorable view of him.

4. Hillary lost because she lost in Midwestern states where I believe Bernie has good appeal.

5. There isn't much to hit him with scandal-wise, and he won't get into a personality fight with Trump. He's not a great debater but he can stick to his policies, and his policies are popular and poll well.

That's why I think he'll win the general.

 

[Red Viking]

Why would they vote for him over Trump?
Everything points towards Trump’s support amongst Republicans being as strong as ever.

I can see him winning over some moderate Republicans who don’t put Party over country, but I don’t think that’s a large demographic

If you noticed during the last presidential election Donald Trump stayed away from bashing Bernie Sanders in general unlike the other candidates as he was well aware that he needed the anti-establishment crowd with him after the primary was over with if he was to have a chance to win the presidential election. Bernie Sanders still have a very strong appeal to this voter base. Donald Trumps anti-establishment base do not have an alternative currently to go to as there is not any election anytime soon. This means they will likely stay until an alternative is given to them again in the next election. 26% of the Republican base likes Bernie Sanders currently and that is a pretty huge number. All Bernie Sanders needs is to draw in 5% of the Republican voter base and they are in serious trouble in a national election.

 

[Cal?]

I have said before, I doubt he wins the primary, but if he does get through he wins the general. Every bit of polling bears this out.

As for the argument on this page, I think a Democrat who can't ram through M4A and/or free college and/or some curtailment of Citizens United is going to be succeeded by a Republican worse than Trump.

Every bit of polling indicated we should have President Hillary right now.

Although I do think whoever makes it through the Dem primary should win given the swing back towards the Dems in those 3 states.

There are many Republican states, for example Kansas, Utah, Florida, where referendums on raising the minimum wage, expanding Medicare, expanding voting rights, all won (all positions held by the left and centre-left of the party), but the party nominees (of all types: conservative blue dogs, centrists, progressives) all lost.
It is because the Dem brand is worse than the policies.

They may well be true, probably why Sanders has avoided signing up as a Dem so far, but he would have to eventually if he’s going to run

 

[Cal?]

He is not that far ahead as you seem to suggest in the polls that we are looking looking at double figure leads. Bernie is a clear number 2. Biden is an established name as he has been known nationally for a very long time comparing to Sanders who only recently got into the spot light in 2016.

Biden benefits from the democratic corporate base that helps giving him coverage in the big media in both direct and indirect ways. As Obama stays in the media spot light all the time it helps Biden by association alone as the coverage he gets is immense compared to Bernie Sanders. This Pr helps promoting Biden´s name immensely through the corporate media and this helps him a lot with building some popularity within the democratic party. A fair few corporate democrats do not like Bernie Sanders either because he is a threat to an easy income they get from corporations and as such will not support him if a corporate democrat is on the ticket. Bernie´s strength is on a national level as he has what you call an cross over appeal that can draw in a lot of anti-establishment crowd that exist in the Republican voter base.

2 years is a very long time in politics. 2 years ago, Hillary the first woman president was her destiny. 2 years before that she was the most popular politician around. Now nobody wants to hear about her.

Biden is closely associated with the Obama wing and Obama has remained popular regardless of what some of you think about his policies. He must be doing something right.

 

[Red Viking]

2 years is a very long time in politics. 2 years ago, Hillary the first woman president was her destiny. 2 years before that she was the most popular politician around. Now nobody wants to hear about her.

Biden is closely associated with the Obama wing and Obama has remained popular regardless of what some of you think about his policies. He must be doing something right.

In America people often vote on personality or charisma rather than strict policy as people in this country are generally too ignorant on political matters to realize what policies benefits them or not, hence the belief in trickle down economy for so long until people see the long term results them selves. I do not blame them at all as people can only make decisions based upon what they know, and the less you know about politics and economics the more prone you become to vote on who you like on a personal level or who you identify with. This is why dumping down America works so well for the Republicans as it makes deceit and lying all too easy.

I do not hate or dislike Obama by the way i think he did the right thing getting the economy back on track. He forgot to do more for the ordinary American though in rebuilding the economy, and that have hurt the Democratic badly in amongst the working and middle class America. They saw the elite being bailed out, while they were left behind to suffer with little to no hope. The Democratic party basicly left these men and women to be prayed upon by an opportunistic Republican pr machine that went in and tok over key states in the last election. If the Democratic party dosn´t learn from this mistake it will backfire spectacularly. Obama is a great orator and good with connecting with people, and this helps him immensely with staying very popular.

 

[Cal?]

In America people often vote on personality or charisma rather than strict policy as people in this country are generally too ignorant on political matters to realize what policies benefits them or not, hence the belief in trickle down economy for so long until people see the long term results them selves. I do not blame them at all as people can only make decisions based upon what they know, and the less you know about politics and economics the more prone you become to vote on who you like on a personal level or who you identify with. This is why dumping down America works so well for the Republicans as it makes deceit and lying all too easy.

I do not hate or dislike Obama by the way i think he did the right thing getting the economy back on track. He forgot to do more for the ordinary American though in rebuilding the economy, and that have hurt the Democratic badly in amongst the working and middle class America. They saw the elite being bailed out, while they were left behind to suffer with little to no hope. The Democratic party basicly left these men and women to be prayed upon by an opportunistic Republican pr machine that went in and tok over key states in the last election. If the Democratic party dosn´t learn from this mistake it will backfire spectacularly. Obama is a great orator and good with connecting with people, and this helps him immensely with staying very popular.

If that’s the case I fail to see where Sanders’ advantage is. Whilst he’s quit good a public speaking, he’s certainly no Obama.

Someone like Beto would have a better chance?

 

[villain]

@Kaos @berbatrick @Red Viking

Interesting points, thanks guys.
We’ll have to wait and see, I’m still not convinced though it has to be said - I think a good portion of Bernie's momentum has been lost, he gained most of his traction on social media, and now if you look at almost any news story that includes Bernie you'll get just as many people who are fed up of him, as you do people who are in support of him, that wasn't the case before, he was universally liked but not necessarily backed.
I think he is in danger of being grouped together with Clinton & Biden while the more and more people aren't attracted by the idea of 'old white guys' at the head of politics any more.

But thats where the debates will be key, if he can show his 2015/16 enthusiasm again it's going to be hard to beat him.

 

[Red Viking]

If that’s the case I fail to see where Sanders’ advantage is. Whilst he’s quit good a public speaking, he’s certainly no Obama.

Someone like Beto would have a better chance?

Sanders advantage is he is essentially a small guy like ordinary people that are standing up for working class and middle class Americans as well. People can identify with that type of politician in large enough numbers in this political climate as the demographic have changed towards someone like him can win. He is sufficient enough in public speaking to do the job as he can explain his proposals in a manner ordinary people can understand.

Beto would be wise to go for the 2024 as Bernie would never be a 2 term president if he won and having a good candidate with a clean record to take over and repel a Republican attempt to take the presidency back. It would be a great shame to waste one good candidates in 2020 and it would give Beto the time to build up a bigger national profile in the mean time.

 

[Wibble]

Why is it such an assured notion that if Bernie goes up against Trump he’ll win?

Generally curious because I don’t see it as that clear cut

I like to believe that a generic brand tub of lard could beat Trump.

 

[Organic Potatoes]

Why is it such an assured notion that if Bernie goes up against Trump he’ll win?

Generally curious because I don’t see it as that clear cut

The majority of electoral votes are baked in already based on the state. The Dems mostly just need to win the upper Midwest, where Bernie outperformed Hillary and has pull with working-class whites (which they also need to win back to some extent).

That’s all this election boils down to, and Bernie would likely flip those places back to blue. A few states up north will decide everything, so a candidate that appeals to them will win.

 

[Red Viking]

@Kaos @berbatrick @Red Viking

Interesting points, thanks guys.
We’ll have to wait and see, I’m still not convinced though it has to be said - I think a good portion of Bernie's momentum has been lost, he gained most of his traction on social media, and now if you look at almost any news story that includes Bernie you'll get just as many people who are fed up of him, as you do people who are in support of him, that wasn't the case before, he was universally liked but not necessarily backed.
I think he is in danger of being grouped together with Clinton & Biden while the more and more people aren't attracted by the idea of 'old white guys' at the head of politics any more.

But thats where the debates will be key, if he can show his 2015/16 enthusiasm again it's going to be hard to beat him.

His Facebook profile have seen a fairly nice increase of followers after he made Amazon increase their minimum wage up to 15 dollars an hour. He just dosn´t have the money nor personnel to keep up with interesting news all the type to be in the media spot light all the time. He has to pick and plan according to resources. People that do not like him started to speak out on forums when he was getting momentum earlier on and if you notice a fair chunk of them are fake profiles mixed in with normal users. If he is going to run for 2020 then he is busy planning it al ready to be ready for the primaries. He has not lost his enthusiasm. He is just picking his time and moment for better impact if he runs in 2020.

 

[Cal?]

Sanders advantage is he is essentially a small guy like ordinary people that are standing up for working class and middle class Americans as well. People can identify with that type of politician in large enough numbers in this political climate as the demographic have changed towards someone like him can win. He is sufficient enough in public speaking to do the job as he can explain his proposals in a manner ordinary people can understand.

Beto would be wise to go for the 2024 as Bernie would never be a 2 term president if he won and having a good candidate with a clean record to take over and repel a Republican attempt to take the presidency back. It would be a great shame to waste one good candidates in 2020 and it would give Beto the time to build up a bigger national profile in the mean time.

I’m not sure about that, how did the evangelicals identify with a NY billionaire serial adulterer?

Anyway, we’ll see, the primaries are almost upon us.

The worry with Beto is that he has a very tough task to get any statewide position in TX. If he fails again in 2 years to become a senators, that may spell the end.

 

[Raoul]

You also have to take some of these hypothetical polls in context in that they don't give those being polled a tangible choice of two people who are actually running against one another (as in Trump v Hillary, Beto v Cruz etc). You don't really know how a voter will behave until they have to make a real world choice among two actual candidates whose policies could affect their lives. This is one of the reasons I never fully bought into the Bernie would beat Trump narrative.

 

[villain]

I like believe that a generic brand tub of lard could beat Trump.

I wish this was the case.

The majority of electoral votes are baked in already based on the state. The Dems mostly just need to win the upper Midwest, where Bernie outperformed Hillary and has pull with working-class whites (which they also need to win back to some extent).

That’s all this election boils down to, and Bernie would likely flip those places back to blue. A few states up north will decide everything, so a candidate that appeals to them will win.

Bernie out performed Hillary, I'm not surprised she lost that contest - but would Bernie out perform Trump in that same demographic?
Trump is the living embodiment of what a lot of working-class midwestern Whites want to be, Bernie is obviously more aligned to what they need - but politics is often decided on who can sell the best dream.

His Facebook profile have seen a fairly nice increase of followers after he made Amazon increase their minimum wage up to 15 dollars an hour. He just dosn´t have the money nor personnel to keep up with interesting news all the type to be in the media spot light all the time. He has to pick and plan according to resources. People that do not like him started to speak out on forums when he was getting momentum earlier on and if you notice a fair chunk of them are fake profiles mixed in with normal users. If he is going to run for 2020 then he is busy planning it al ready to be ready for the primaries. He has not lost his enthusiasm. He is just picking his time and moment for better impact if he runs in 2020.

I don't think Facebook can be trusted for any source of analytical data, especially on the subject of politics - given the amount of fake news that floated on the site at the last few elections.
Twitter is where most of the action happens because it's in the moment - and Bernie's tweets just don't gain as much traction as they used to - you don't need resources for this, and he got most of his fame when he didn't have anywhere as much notoriety as he does now, all you need is a phone and a message.

His tweet about the Amazon deal got about 25k likes iirc - that's huge news that would've got him 100k likes easily if this was 2016 - he seemed to go viral at least once a week back then. Comparatively - Trump's tweets average 80k minimum.
Fair enough he's got 8x the amount of followers as Bernie, so lets look at it another way - Ocasio-Cortez has 1/4 of the amount of followers as Bernie (1.5m), yet she gets about 30-40k likes as an average, and about 10-15k as a low - for regular every day tweets. Bernie's regular tweets get about 8-10k, and his most popular tweets peak at around 40k max take a look at this for example;


5k likes


Ocasio retweets it and gets almost 6x the amount of likes - that's a ridiculous uplift on engagement

Beto's last 5 tweets have 58k, 2.5k, 26k, 13k, 6k - for an average of 20k with only 1M followers. (the 5 tweets before that are actually much larger and would average higher than 20k)

Beyond that, when was the last tweet that went viral by Bernie? In 2016 it felt like every other day he was taking twitter & facebook by storm, it's just not the case anymore.

this would actually suggest three things;
1 - Bernie's followers don't engage with what he tweets as often as they used to
2 - Bernie is actually more likely to have fake followers as well
3 - Both can be true at the same time

If 1 is true - that's worrying considering a lot of his momentum was built up over social media, and every analytical tool will tell you that you need a certain conversion rate in order to draw reliable conclusions from, on trends and follower engagement.
If 2 is true - that's also worrying, but not too surprising because every famous person will have a decent amount of fake followers.
You don't need a lot of followers to go viral though, you just need a message that a large amount of people can identify with.

I tend to do a lot of data farming for work, so for me all this stuff is interesting because social media activity & engagement will continue to have more of an impact on politics - so it will be interesting to see if he can still have the whirlwind impact of a few years ago as the primaries go on.

 

[roseguy64]

Lawyers need to do data farming now. What a whole new world.

 

[Red Viking]

You have to take into account the new factor that Beto + Ocasio brings into play. By now every one knows what Bernie stands for and people have debated it a lot over the last few years. This naturally means people wont talk about it as much on social media compared to new developments like these two politicians as they are new on the block and naturally that brings a freshness and new things to talk about that engages people directly through comments and likes. All this dosn´t mean people are not engaged with his message or that they lost interest. People just like gossiping about the new topics or events that is all. The Amazon did more or less get 800 people a day to follow him for awhile before it was maybe 100-200 a day so it definitely had an impact in attracting new followers but as always with social media there will be bots among them, especially on high profile pages. What is new always gets people engaged or excited and talked about a lot more than older topics that people al ready is informed about.

I think you are drawing negative conclusions too hastily based upon comments and likes on new high profile politicians compared to one a few years older. Also it is not fair to compare a president with a senator as their new coverage is on completely different scales. If people was not engaged in his message any more people would have unfollowed his page as he would be irrelevant to them and their political beliefs. I definitely agree with comments have slowed down but i think is because of the repetitive nature of his posts more than anything else.

 

[UnrelatedPsuedo]

No way will Trump be on that ballot.

If he is, America is probably beyond saving.

 

[UnrelatedPsuedo]

I wish this was the case.



Bernie out performed Hillary, I'm not surprised she lost that contest - but would Bernie out perform Trump in that same demographic?
Trump is the living embodiment of what a lot of working-class midwestern Whites want to be, Bernie is obviously more aligned to what they need - but politics is often decided on who can sell the best dream.



I don't think Facebook can be trusted for any source of analytical data, especially on the subject of politics - given the amount of fake news that floated on the site at the last few elections.
Twitter is where most of the action happens because it's in the moment - and Bernie's tweets just don't gain as much traction as they used to - you don't need resources for this, and he got most of his fame when he didn't have anywhere as much notoriety as he does now, all you need is a phone and a message.

His tweet about the Amazon deal got about 25k likes iirc - that's huge news that would've got him 100k likes easily if this was 2016 - he seemed to go viral at least once a week back then. Comparatively - Trump's tweets average 80k minimum.
Fair enough he's got 8x the amount of followers as Bernie, so lets look at it another way - Ocasio-Cortez has 1/4 of the amount of followers as Bernie (1.5m), yet she gets about 30-40k likes as an average, and about 10-15k as a low - for regular every day tweets. Bernie's regular tweets get about 8-10k, and his most popular tweets peak at around 40k max take a look at this for example;


5k likes


Ocasio retweets it and gets almost 6x the amount of likes - that's a ridiculous uplift on engagement

Beto's last 5 tweets have 58k, 2.5k, 26k, 13k, 6k - for an average of 20k with only 1M followers. (the 5 tweets before that are actually much larger and would average higher than 20k)

Beyond that, when was the last tweet that went viral by Bernie? In 2016 it felt like every other day he was taking twitter & facebook by storm, it's just not the case anymore.

this would actually suggest three things;
1 - Bernie's followers don't engage with what he tweets as often as they used to
2 - Bernie is actually more likely to have fake followers as well
3 - Both can be true at the same time

If 1 is true - that's worrying considering a lot of his momentum was built up over social media, and every analytical tool will tell you that you need a certain conversion rate in order to draw reliable conclusions from, on trends and follower engagement.
If 2 is true - that's also worrying, but not too surprising because every famous person will have a decent amount of fake followers.
You don't need a lot of followers to go viral though, you just need a message that a large amount of people can identify with.

I tend to do a lot of data farming for work, so for me all this stuff is interesting because social media activity & engagement will continue to have more of an impact on politics - so it will be interesting to see if he can still have the whirlwind impact of a few years ago as the primaries go on.

Doesn’t trust Facebook.
Quotes Twitter numbers.

For the love of god, Do not give your employers your username.

 

[villain]

Lawyers need to do data farming now. What a whole new world.

I get involved in lots of corporate investments and most of my newest clients are in the Tech industry, so lots of data needs to be heavily analysed and scrutinised

You have to take into account the new factor that Beto + Ocasio brings into play. By now every one knows what Bernie stands for and people have debated it a lot over the last few years. This naturally means people wont talk about it as much on social media compared to new developments like these two politicians as they are new on the block and naturally that brings a freshness and new things to talk about that engages people directly through comments and likes. All this dosn´t mean people are not engaged with his message or that they lost interest. People just like gossiping about the new topics or events that is all. The Amazon did more or less get 800 people a day to follow him for awhile before it was maybe 100-200 a day so it definitely had an impact in attracting new followers but as always with social media there will be bots among them, especially on high profile pages. What is new always gets people engaged or excited and talked about a lot more than older topics that people al ready is informed about.

I think you are drawing negative conclusions too hastily based upon comments and likes on new high profile politicians compared to one a few years older. Also it is not fair to compare a president with a senator as their new coverage is on completely different scales. If people was not engaged in his message any more people would have unfollowed his page as he would be irrelevant to them and their political beliefs. I definitely agree with comments have slowed down but i think is because of the repetitive nature of his posts more than anything else.

Sure, Beto & Ocasio are new, but I used them as examples because they have a lot less followers than Bernie. Plus Bernie is the face of American Socialism, so he should be leading the charge, but Ocasio is out performing him when it comes to digital engagement, and that shouldn't be the case, regardless of her newness.

I think there could be something in the repetitiveness of his message - Scrolling through his timeline his tweets talk about important issues, yes, but you don't get a sense of his every day life - there's nothing personable about him.
You could say that he's only interested in whats important - the policies - and that's great, but you also have to be a human being that others can warm to and want to listen to.

I'm being harsh because honestly I don't think any of the Dems can beat Trump right now and it's frustrating that we have to face the prospect of 4 more years of him.

Doesn’t trust Facebook.
Quotes Twitter numbers.

For the love of god, Do not give your employers your username.

In the context of talking about social media influence, I don't see what the issue is.
Every day we tune into Twitter for information on American politics, every day most of us wait to see what Trump tweets, that's the platform which shows most of the individual engagement. Almost every media outlet quotes prominent tweets by politicians, journalists and analysts every day - why should we ignore the platform?

Facebook isn't reliable for a number of reasons, including being compromised by foreign governments and they are still under investigation for that iirc.
I didn't say Twitter is accurate or bible, it's just a subjective estimate of user engagement because ultimately social media is important and will be important during the primaries.

 

[Raoul]

 

[Silva]

oh no how will CNN cope

 

[oneniltothearsenal]

Biden is sitting well ahead of Sanders in the early primary polls, not alongside him, probably due to name recognition than anything else. But that's also true for Sanders, let's not pretend only the Clinton/Obama wing have name recognition nowadays.

If all those proposals really are so so popular, why isn't Sanders polling ahead of Biden? It's well documented that Obama didn't go anywhere near those policies.

Somehow Obama utterly failed to deliver what you think the country needs yet remains hugely popular and Biden is polling ahead because of being associated with him?

1. Polling is irrelevant now

2.Biden is the only establishment candidate so he gets all the establishment ClintonDemocrats. Meanwhile the progressives are split between many candidates.

3. Obama campaigned on universal healthcare and a public option. Even if he was more centrist the perception in 2007 was that he would be the most liberal President ever. You should have heard the talk in the SF Bay Area. All the idealists believed in Obama in 2007. By 2012 there was much less enthusiasm as the young progressives of that generation were very disappointed in Obama admin.

I’m not sure about that, how did the evangelicals identify with a NY billionaire serial adulterer?

Anyway, we’ll see, the primaries are almost upon us.

The worry with Beto is that he has a very tough task to get any statewide position in TX. If he fails again in 2 years to become a senators, that may spell the end.

They didn't. They identified with hardcore evangelical Pence and his wife-mother.

 

[UnrelatedPsuedo]

I get involved in lots of corporate investments and most of my newest clients are in the Tech industry, so lots of data needs to be heavily analysed and scrutinised



Sure, Beto & Ocasio are new, but I used them as examples because they have a lot less followers than Bernie. Plus Bernie is the face of American Socialism, so he should be leading the charge, but Ocasio is out performing him when it comes to digital engagement, and that shouldn't be the case, regardless of her newness.

I think there could be something in the repetitiveness of his message - Scrolling through his timeline his tweets talk about important issues, yes, but you don't get a sense of his every day life - there's nothing personable about him.
You could say that he's only interested in whats important - the policies - and that's great, but you also have to be a human being that others can warm to and want to listen to.

I'm being harsh because honestly I don't think any of the Dems can beat Trump right now and it's frustrating that we have to face the prospect of 4 more years of him.



In the context of talking about social media influence, I don't see what the issue is.
Every day we tune into Twitter for information on American politics, every day most of us wait to see what Trump tweets, that's the platform which shows most of the individual engagement. Almost every media outlet quotes prominent tweets by politicians, journalists and analysts every day - why should we ignore the platform?

Facebook isn't reliable for a number of reasons, including being compromised by foreign governments and they are still under investigation for that iirc.
I didn't say Twitter is accurate or bible, it's just a subjective estimate of user engagement because ultimately social media is important and will be important during the primaries.

You’re missing the point that Twitter is largely an audience that doesn’t bother voting. And that Facebook users generally do.

Marry that fact to the point that Twitter metrics will almost certainly be the next great scandal and it’s all largely a crap shoot.

Certain truths remain :

- If the republicans do not marginalise Trump and merely seek to ‘win’ rather than have a fair, prosperous and equitable country... American politics has all but ended.

- If the Democrats cannot find one person that can beat Trump, they deserve to never win another election.

Do you think that you would beat him?

I would. I don’t even think that it would be that hard either. He’s not bright. He’s not some political savant that’s found this new trick.

We kid ourselves that these are bright people. They’re really not. They’re all vampiric entities looking to get things for themselves, rather than help people.

 

[oneniltothearsenal]

Sure, Beto & Ocasio are new, but I used them as examples because they have a lot less followers than Bernie. Plus Bernie is the face of American Socialism, so he should be leading the charge, but Ocasio is out performing him when it comes to digital engagement, and that shouldn't be the case, regardless of her newness.

Not really. Bernie was obscure and never a leader of the progressives until everyone else cowered/bullied and refused to challenge Ms. Its Her Turn. From about 2010-2015 Liz Warren was unquestionably the most famous and well known progressive 'leader' in the US. People only flocked to Bernie because he was literally the only one who had the courage to stand up to the awful Clinton entitlement machine not because he was the long time face of American progressives (I am progressive not socialist).

 

[villain]

You’re missing the point that Twitter is largely an audience that doesn’t bother voting. And that Facebook users generally do.

Marry that fact to the point that Twitter metrics will almost certainly be the next great scandal and it’s all largely a crap shoot.

Certain truths remain :

- If the republicans do not marginalise Trump and merely seek to ‘win’ rather than have a fair, prosperous and equitable country... American politics has all but ended.

- If the Democrats cannot find one person that can beat Trump, they deserve to never win another election.

Do you think that you would beat him?

I would. I don’t even think that it would be that hard either. He’s not bright. He’s not some political savant that’s found this new trick.

We kid ourselves that these are bright people. They’re really not. They’re all vampiric entities looking to get things for themselves, rather than help people.

Historically the twitter audience didn’t bother voting, but every day we see Twitter’s influence on American politics - like I said almost all political commentary filters through a prism of twitter.
Also the increase in turnout for the mid-terms can’t be ignored either, which was largely led by the Twitter audience - or least the push to vote was saturated all over Twitter.

I think if we kid ourselves that digital metrics and analytics aren’t important, we risk getting left behind and not reaching a massive audience. Every corporate business is investing £M’s into analytics every year, the data is frankly invaluable - and political campaigns are ran with that same mindset. If you’ve never gotten involved with a political campaign I can’t stress this point enough, I contributed on my last two local elections and even at that basic level we forecasted and analysed user engagements from who visited the campaign site and why, who engaged with certain tweets, what source they use to find us etc. Digital data is the driving force behind so many business decisions, and it’s only going to increase further.

Plus one of the only reasons I brought it up was because Bernie’s early popularity in 2016 happened because of Twitter and Facebook - so we can’t just suddenly assume it means nothing now because he doesn’t have as much engagement anymore. It just means he needs to figure out how to capitualise on it and put himself in the best position to reach the demographics he struggles to engage with.

Also I hate Trump as much as anyone else, more than most actually - but this idea that he, or more specifically his team are dumb and didn’t strategise his campaign at a granular level to ensure that his message would reach the people it needed to reach is frankly madness.
These things don’t happen by mistake - he beat a juggernaut in Clinton, and his support hasn’t slowed down at all. There’s nothing to suggest that Bernie will beat him as easily as you’re suggesting.
It has nothing to do with intelligence and everything to do with promoting a message to your core base that they can identify with and they understand, as well as having the charisma to keep people interested. Plus the more he gets villified and insulted - the more his base will regurgitate their victim complex.

 

[villain]

Not really. Bernie was obscure and never a leader of the progressives until everyone else cowered/bullied and refused to challenge Ms. Its Her Turn. From about 2010-2015 Liz Warren was unquestionably the most famous and well known progressive 'leader' in the US. People only flocked to Bernie because he was literally the only one who had the courage to stand up to the awful Clinton entitlement machine not because he was the long time face of American progressives (I am progressive not socialist).

But surely you can see how he is the most notorious option when talking about American socialism now? Whether it’s technically accurate or not isn’t the important because the average American Joe will associate socialism with Bernie

 

[Ubik]

Not really. Bernie was obscure and never a leader of the progressives until everyone else cowered/bullied and refused to challenge Ms. Its Her Turn. From about 2010-2015 Liz Warren was unquestionably the most famous and well known progressive 'leader' in the US. People only flocked to Bernie because he was literally the only one who had the courage to stand up to the awful Clinton entitlement machine not because he was the long time face of American progressives (I am progressive not socialist).

Well she said socialism, and Bernie was the only one to call himself a socialist up until very recently. Plus Bernie has a term on her as a senator, and I'd heard of him before I'd heard of her.

 

[Drifter]

Great news on Avenatti.

 

[fishfingers15]

1. Polling is irrelevant now

2.Biden is the only establishment candidate so he gets all the establishment ClintonDemocrats. Meanwhile the progressives are split between many candidates.

3. Obama campaigned on universal healthcare and a public option. Even if he was more centrist the perception in 2007 was that he would be the most liberal President ever. You should have heard the talk in the SF Bay Area. All the idealists believed in Obama in 2007. By 2012 there was much less enthusiasm as the young progressives of that generation were very disappointed in Obama admin.




They didn't. They identified with hardcore evangelical Pence and his wife-mother.

This is not right, even before Pence got on the ticket, Trump always had huge evangelical backing. They even ditched Cruz, one of their own to back Trump. I agree on all other points.

 

[UnrelatedPsuedo]

Historically the twitter audience didn’t bother voting, but every day we see Twitter’s influence on American politics - like I said almost all political commentary filters through a prism of twitter.
Also the increase in turnout for the mid-terms can’t be ignored either, which was largely led by the Twitter audience - or least the push to vote was saturated all over Twitter.

I think if we kid ourselves that digital metrics and analytics aren’t important, we risk getting left behind and not reaching a massive audience. Every corporate business is investing £M’s into analytics every year, the data is frankly invaluable - and political campaigns are ran with that same mindset. If you’ve never gotten involved with a political campaign I can’t stress this point enough, I contributed on my last two local elections and even at that basic level we forecasted and analysed user engagements from who visited the campaign site and why, who engaged with certain tweets, what source they use to find us etc. Digital data is the driving force behind so many business decisions, and it’s only going to increase further.

Plus one of the only reasons I brought it up was because Bernie’s early popularity in 2016 happened because of Twitter and Facebook - so we can’t just suddenly assume it means nothing now because he doesn’t have as much engagement anymore. It just means he needs to figure out how to capitualise on it and put himself in the best position to reach the demographics he struggles to engage with.

Also I hate Trump as much as anyone else, more than most actually - but this idea that he, or more specifically his team are dumb and didn’t strategise his campaign at a granular level to ensure that his message would reach the people it needed to reach is frankly madness.
These things don’t happen by mistake - he beat a juggernaut in Clinton, and his support hasn’t slowed down at all. There’s nothing to suggest that Bernie will beat him as easily as you’re suggesting.
It has nothing to do with intelligence and everything to do with promoting a message to your core base that they can identify with and they understand, as well as having the charisma to keep people interested. Plus the more he gets villified and insulted - the more his base will regurgitate their victim complex.

Do you honestly believe that you couldn’t start now (assuming you were American, met all the criteria etc) from ground zero and beat Trump in an election?

He started playing a different game. He didn’t solve the old one.

Any challenger that gets beaten by him, in any race, between now and the day that he’s a corpse, deserves all they get.

People need to get their heads out of their arses and apply some sensible and critical thought to it.

I’ve not one suggested that Sanders would beat him.

Hillary ran the worst campaign of all time and all the democrats are thinking is ‘How do we improve’?

Lets stop pretending that that is the right question, or that this is a big ask.

If the Democratic Party stopped playing by the old rules, they’d have the game half won by now.

Politicians are ridiculously lazy. Obscenely so. America has just suffered the biggest insult to its democracy since its inception and the opposition are still posturing and grandstanding. The country is a fcuking joke.