We'll have to see how it plays out in the primaries but all things are pointing towards a lack of direction and identity for the Dems right now & I fear that lack of unity will cost them the election, regardless of who the candidate is.
2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress
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We'll have to see how it plays out in the primaries but all things are pointing towards a lack of direction and identity for the Dems right now & I fear that lack of unity will cost them the election, regardless of who the candidate is.
Its not equivalent. Go back to 2014-15 and the Republican polling showed Trump nowhere near the top 10 even (well top 8).
For instance Jan 12, 2015 the Republican primary was polling:
Jeb Bush 13.9%
Ben Carson 10.1%
Mike Huckabee 9.5%
Rand Paul 9%
Scott Walker 6.1%
Chris Christie 5.0%
Ted Cruz 4.9%
Rubio 2.7%
Its simply too early to give a feck about polling results. It won't be until about summer 2019 that things shake out enough so polls start to reflect preferences.
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I don't think it's that easy to dismiss the equivalency because you could argue that names like Biden, Sanders & Warren are way more known now, than the likes of Jeb Bush, Ben Carson and Huckabee were in 14/15.
But overall I see your point.
Overally my prediction is Biden is going to do a Jeb Bush. As soon as he starts speaking more his popularity is going to nosedive. I might be wrong, but this is my bet
Yeah I don't see Biden going far personally. Warren could surprise, but I think it'll eventually end up with Bernie.
If Warren can find some reinvigorated fire and passion to sound like a genuine person fighting for the people then yeah I think she could overcome the early negatives but she has to show a little more genuine passion and not come off as a calculating Washington politician.
I don't think it will be won on passion and charisma, I think people recognise that charm and likability won't be enough to beat Trump's cult.
Plus in the era of social media the electorate will be able to dissect every word each candidate says over and over in videos and think-pieces that can manipulate general opinion.
The fact that all of their speeches will be immortalised and analysed heavily for days & weeks after the fact will mean that there's very few places that they can fake the funk - blindspots are going to critiqued at an enormous level.
Of course you can't be robotic and unlikeable, but I think she has the potential to do better than in 2016 - if she runs.
Warren only picking up 11% in MA at this stage is not great for her.
Warren's proof of Native Americanness is one of the cringeworthy acts I've seen recently. I have 1% Native blood in me, yay!
Interesting video on O'Rourke.
Interesting. Warren down 6 as well.
Digging a bit deeper, there is trouble for Brown (and massive trouble for Warren) and encouragement for both Biden and Bernie.
1. Independents are unsure about a Brown/Trump matchup, they dislike Warren, but are in favour of Biden/Bernie over Trump. It means both have some breathing room, while Brown will have to rely on base turnout alone.*
2. This seems to be an election with a massive gender gap. Women are voting for the 3 Bs in the same numbers: 56/57 B - 36/38 Trump. The reason Biden is doing better than Bernie is because men don't hate him; he trails 39-52, while Bernie trails 36-55. Brown is benefiting not from irresistible homoerotic charm love but from undecided men (38-49, with 12 unsure).
Interestingly while Warren's numbers among men are similar to Bernie's, her numbers among women are appalling (49-41).
Both things suggest that Brown's support is a little softer than the margin indicates.
In either case, given the statewide results from Ohio in 2018, I think this goes well below Michigan, Penn, Wisconsin, and maybe even Florida in the pickup category.
*Edit - Biden and Brown have some Republican appeal too, unlike Bernie and Warren. I don't know whether it will hold.
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How is this an issue? Accepting donation from certain sectors does not mean agreeing with its use in every situation.
Yes. Yes it is. It's really quite simple, don't accept the fecking donations.
He makes a good point @Cal?
The Norm of Reciprocity: Society’s Guilt Trip
When it comes to the art of persuasion, you wouldn’t expect a chanting, orange-clad, stubble-headed pagan to be an expert. The Hare Krishna were a very visible religious movement in the 1970s, especially in airports.
It was the famous psychologist Robert Cialdini who discovered that they used a powerful technique called the norm of reciprocity.
As described in the fascinating book Age of Propaganda, a norm is a specific guide to conduct. A norm is how society tells you to act normally – like tipping 15% at a restaurant, sneezing into your elbow, or not cutting in line.
The norm of reciprocity is simply this: If I give you something, you are obligated to give me something in return. The norm of reciprocity regulates exchange in a culture.
http://www.scholarfox.com/blog/gift-giving-psychology-the-norm-of-reciprocity
Trump is going to be reelected. Also i think it would be very dangerous the democrats in the power seeking revenge against Russia. Unless Bernie Sanders is elected, but they probably are going to rig it against him again.
By that logic, if you accept donation from a water company, you're condoning water boarding?
Don’t be obtuse.
Wow! That's not logic, you are talking bollocks.
How is this an issue? Accepting donation from certain sectors does not mean agreeing with its use in every situation.
Booker is complete crap. He's neither progressive nor does he stand for anything on the establishment side in terms of foreign policy or the like. He comes across as perspiring all the time as if he's desperate to prove he's a leading contender in 20.
I agree with your assessment of him, just don't agree with the vilifying everyone for the contribution they take.
Bernie
Sherod Brown
Beto
I'll trust those three.
No one else.
Sherod Brown
Beto
I'll trust those three.
No one else.
I'm an Irish man living in America, you want to hear some of the shit I hear on a daily basis about ancestry. I once got in to an argument with a woman who was convinced that her family still had to pay rent to an English lord for land they still rented in "County Burn". She got very angry when I said her father was probably bullshiting her to pay for his bit on the side.
This has always been my assumption
(my assumptions are mostly wrong)
(my assumptions are mostly wrong)
Are there any California polls? So far Biden is the clear front-runner in every poll and he's ummm not a black woman.
If she does well it certainly won't be because she's black (technically half black half indian), it will be because she has a message that connects with people, which she clearly doesn't have at this time.
It’s possible that people are getting him mixed up with Michelle I guess?
True, but I think it's also true that it doesn't take a lot to move the needle at this stage (Bernie was around mid single digits up till April 2015, Obama wasn't even registering in polls until the Time cover, with Al Gore chasing Hillary closest, and Dick Gephardt was the early frontrunner in 2004 etc). I wouldn't want to bet heavily against Biden at this stage, but if he loses that particular demographic to someone else in the period of the next year (which seems plenty plausible) he won't be getting the nomination.
But no, don't think there's any polling there yet. That someone funded one in MA at this stage is still a bit weird, unless the goal was to embarrass Warren.
Right, and I'm sure the fact that Obama was black (well, half black half white if we're being weirdly technical now) certainly had nothing to do with him stopping the Clinton juggernaut in 08 by persuading primarily black voters, who had previously been firmly behind Clinton, to switch to him. Representation matters to plenty of people, older black voters in the Deep South foremost among them.
But yeah they'll need a message as well, or a "campaign" as some might call it.
Harris is well positioned to be the compromise candidate. Supports M4A and stimulus package, of the right demographic, new on the national stage = no baggage.
She’d have to build up name recognition fairly quickly though. Honestly not sure how it’d turn out this time, with the only certainty being Biden cocking it up.
She’d have to build up name recognition fairly quickly though. Honestly not sure how it’d turn out this time, with the only certainty being Biden cocking it up.
I'm increasingly certain that you love Biden and this is all a reverse jinx.
Harris has no national level charisma or constituency. The hard left are already lining up against her because she's not hard left enough and was once a prosecutor (which is apparently a bad thing now) and the establishment crowd won't go for her because she's not nearly establishment enough. Ordinarily, this wouldn't be the end of the world but in her case it's pretty much a non-starter. Beto on the other hand would be able to draw large amounts of support from both sides and actually has the charisma to move the needle.
It’d be a long jinx, since I had the same opinion since 2015.
Obama’s endorsement (should he choose to involve himself early this time) will be important, but Biden is frankly a very bad fit with where the party is going, and his past attempts don’t inspire confidence.
Doesn’t she have a lot of national exposure from roasting Republicans at hearings? She strikes me as a better candidate in the public eye than you give her credit for.
The field is rather weak unless Bernie runs anyway...
She and Booker both have that same exposure but I don't think it will benefit either of them, since that's a minuscule aspect of what it would take for someone to be a POTUS frontrunner. What these candidates need is a degree of charisma and emotion that connects with voters and only Bernie and Beto have that at the moment (imo).
agree.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campai...p-contender-in-2020-race-for-white-house-poll
Amazing consistency in that it's Biden leading, a gap, Bernie following, a gap, and then the field, in all polls so far.
Sanders is not nearly as popular as the Caf will have you believe.
This is simply not a true statement. Bernie Sanders is the currently most popular active politician in America. It is hard to be more popular than that isn´t it ? Joe Biden is riding on Barack Obama´s popularity due to being his vice president and him being associated with him. He does not have Obama´s rhetoric skills or charisma that he can rely on when it comes to debating nor does he seem to have any policy idea´s that you can say comes from him originally unlike Bernie Sanders Medicare for all proposal etc. When actual debates starts of in the democratic primary then he can not rely on someone else boosting his numbers for him.
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