Votes or electoral college? FDR won the highest percentage of the 20th century in terms of electoral college in 1936. LBJ highest vote percentage on record in 1964.
2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress
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As long as he wins the popular vote by more than 4 or 5 points, he should win the electoral college. Obviously, if he were to win it by double digits then we could potentially be looking at a 200 point electoral win. If on the other hand we go into election day with Biden only leading by a few then the result will be very close.
Also Washington won 100% of the electoral vote technically. And I know Monroe’s numbers for example were really high but I’m not counting that as it’s a totally different ball game
This would be Biden's dream scenario.
He is currently tied with Trump in Texas, so it wouldn't be outside the realm of possibility that it winds up in play.
He is currently tied with Trump in Texas, so it wouldn't be outside the realm of possibility that it winds up in play.
Texas is a trap. It’s one of the most time-consuming and expensive states to campaign in, and the blues aren’t winning it this cycle. Don’t fall for it Joe.
This would be Biden's dream scenario.
He is currently tied with Trump in Texas, so it wouldn't be outside the realm of possibility that it winds up in play.
Isn’t it pretty extraordinary that a democratic candidate is tied with the GOP candidate in Texas?
I don't think he will spend much time there since he has the likes of Beto and a few others who can work on the ground. If internal polling is however close, then a few one off day trips to Dallas, Austin, or Houston wouldn't be a bad thing.
Its the wave of the future imo - states like AZ, TX, and GA are slowly drifting into the blue direction.
A New Hope!
Talking of dream scenarios, would people rather see McConnell ousted or squirming as minority leader?
Hmm...saves him spending resources El Paso. Didn’t think about that. I’d have San Antonio high on the list...maybe build a stronger base of voters for the future.
Ousted. He’s actually competent in DC politics. Evil, but competent.
He'd he a massive trouble maker behind the scenes in DC if he stayed on during a Biden term. Would also be great for Kentucky if he gets booted since they would then have a Dem Governor and Senator.
Ousted. While it would be good to see him in senate being relatively powerless, he is actually very good at politics, and would somehow manage to make deals with Schumers (or Biden himself, with whom he had already collaborated in the past going behind Reid's back).
I never denied any of thatYou’re beginning to get it
Too evil to have in DC anymore in any capacity.
Nah, once a rather sane Republican candidate emerge they'll all back him again.
This trend is due to trump being too much even hardcore republicas are shifting away. I'd say if biden wins 2020 anyone GOP come up with in 2024 would win easily (as long as he's not part of trump dynasty). It's like any manager would be an upgrade on Moyes.
This trend is due to trump being too much even hardcore republicas are shifting away. I'd say if biden wins 2020 anyone GOP come up with in 2024 would win easily (as long as he's not part of trump dynasty). It's like any manager would be an upgrade on Moyes.
That's the problem - nearly all GOPers ARE Trumpers in the present and would struggle to shake off the stench if they attempted to run in 24 as regular Republicans.
Georgia Democrats set new primary turnout record, outpacing GOP voters
‘We’re thinking landslide’: Beyond D.C., GOP officials see Trump on glide path to reelection
Conventional indicators suggest the president’s bid for a second term is in jeopardy. But state and local GOP officials see a different election unfolding.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/06/15/trump-glide-reelection-republican-officials-316457
Conventional indicators suggest the president’s bid for a second term is in jeopardy. But state and local GOP officials see a different election unfolding.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/06/15/trump-glide-reelection-republican-officials-316457
They've bought into Trump's rosy narrative that COVID is going away and the economy will come roaring back just before the election. Highly doubtful it will play out this way.
Indeed. Obviously, covid-19 is not going anywhere (it is still killing thousands every day if you count the 4000 people for week dying from a 'mysterious' disease), and the economy won't improve that much. Trump is fecked if Biden does not make electoral suicide.
@Fergie's gum
More Eliot Engel news:
For context: Eliot Engel was caught on an open mic saying he "wouldn't care" (direct quote) to be at a BLM protest if it "wasn't for a primary" (direct quote) challenge. Clyburn endorsed Engel saying that he was "not new to the fight for justice & equality. I have worked with him on these issues for almost 3 decades." Note that his opponent is black.
Several things:
1. Without the hot mic recording, this race would have been nothing. A late endorsement from AOC and Bernie would have come and changed nothing. It would have been another statistic in the L column for the left. As it is, given the flurry of money and endorsements, it is still looking good for Engel. His last primary win was by 60 points and the general was unopposed.
2. Clyburn is widely recognised as the decisive factor behind Biden's SC win, which in itself is the decisive factor behind his rapid ascent in national polling, the sudden consolidation of the party centrist candidates, and massive wins from Super Tuesdy onwards. This is a very clear narrative of black leadership and black voters rejecting Bernie.
It is nice to see just how sincere this leadership is about representing its community. When people talk about Bernie and his losses ad boil it down to "rejected by African-Americans", apart from missing that once again age was a better predictor of voting than race, they should know that they are allying with the influence of this type of leadership. But for the ones who are serious about it, they know this and appreciate it.
3. A Trump re-election PAC just donated 100k to Engel, alongside endorsements from Hillary Clinton, Clyburn, and Adam Schiff, for the re-election of the Democratic chairman of the House Foreign Relations Committee who voted for Iraq and for Jerusalem as the capital, and against the Iran deal. Never let it be said that bipartisanship and sensible centrism is dead in Washington.
(the people of point 2 are still at it. i hope they <redacted>)
More Eliot Engel news:
For context: Eliot Engel was caught on an open mic saying he "wouldn't care" (direct quote) to be at a BLM protest if it "wasn't for a primary" (direct quote) challenge. Clyburn endorsed Engel saying that he was "not new to the fight for justice & equality. I have worked with him on these issues for almost 3 decades." Note that his opponent is black.
Several things:
1. Without the hot mic recording, this race would have been nothing. A late endorsement from AOC and Bernie would have come and changed nothing. It would have been another statistic in the L column for the left. As it is, given the flurry of money and endorsements, it is still looking good for Engel. His last primary win was by 60 points and the general was unopposed.
2. Clyburn is widely recognised as the decisive factor behind Biden's SC win, which in itself is the decisive factor behind his rapid ascent in national polling, the sudden consolidation of the party centrist candidates, and massive wins from Super Tuesdy onwards. This is a very clear narrative of black leadership and black voters rejecting Bernie.
It is nice to see just how sincere this leadership is about representing its community. When people talk about Bernie and his losses ad boil it down to "rejected by African-Americans", apart from missing that once again age was a better predictor of voting than race, they should know that they are allying with the influence of this type of leadership. But for the ones who are serious about it, they know this and appreciate it.
3. A Trump re-election PAC just donated 100k to Engel, alongside endorsements from Hillary Clinton, Clyburn, and Adam Schiff, for the re-election of the Democratic chairman of the House Foreign Relations Committee who voted for Iraq and for Jerusalem as the capital, and against the Iran deal. Never let it be said that bipartisanship and sensible centrism is dead in Washington.
(the people of point 2 are still at it. i hope they <redacted>)
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Joe Biden is going to win, die before taking the oath and the republicans are going claim Pence is president because Kamala Harris hadn't taken the veep oath when Biden died. Democrats will be very upset before deciding civility and voting are the solution
Up by 10 in florida by a pollster rated A/B on fivethirtyeight
Trump lawyers drafting up a cease and desist letter to the pollster as we speak.
Up by 10 in florida by a pollster rated A/B on fivethirtyeight
This one is so good that it's hard to believe. If this were anything but an A/B pollster you'd just throw it away. And even then, I'm still looking at it thinking something must be wrong.
Is there any chance Democrat voters will get complacent with the polls and not vote in the numbers required ?
I don't think Trump voters will be put off by these polls as they are so brainwashed by the fake news mantra
I don't think Trump voters will be put off by these polls as they are so brainwashed by the fake news mantra
Yes, that's always a risk. If polls are this good closer to the election and I were Biden's campaign (not that I actually know anything about campaigning) my message would be 99% "just go vote, voting is awesome" with the other 1% being "Oh right, Joe Biden".
Dems can definitely get complacent. Best strategy is to ignore the polls and make sure you vote.
100%
The polls aren't good at measuring turnout, where Trump supporters will turn out in greater numbers than polls suggest and Dems may not. Not to mention all the voter suppression efforts that are already underway by the GOP.
It will be far closer than the polls would have people believe and there is also the potential for Biden fecking it up along the way, whereas Trump's support is far more solid (albeit with a lower ceiling).
I still can’t get over the fact that after all the shit he’s done and said for the past four years, at least 40% of Americans will still vote for him. America seriously need to abolish the two-party system.
Its because he has a very solid propaganda apparatus in place to keep his flock on board. Fox News/OAN, Talk Radio, all of which gets amplified on right wing social media etc. If you remove any one of these pieces (except OAN which is too small), his entire support structure would crumble.
A good proportion of them are tribal Republicans who support the party colours above everything else. And for them, being anti-Democrat is as important as being an actual Republican (which explains Trump's constant antagonism of Obama/Clinton and his loose adherence to old-school Republican values).
There's also the very human flaw of many voters being unwilling to admit they were wrong to have voted for him in the first place in 2016.
I mean, they may end up being right, but there is literally no evidence to suggest it. That's basically a group of people saying, well I think it's gonna happen, so, yeah, that's what I think.
After making fun of Bill Mitchell for months about him going on about Trump winning despite all polls and having to endure the 2016 elections, this time I'll wait till someone else gets sworn in. Anything can go wrong has gone wrong in 2020.
Absolutely, I think everyone will. Personally, I'll be 'investing' all I can in a bet on Trump winning to hedge my emotions
But if maths and numbers and what not mean anything, today that article feels really weird.
It’s because they know how full of shit democrats are and can be trusted to help Trump actually pass republican legislature with ease.
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