Warren changes her tune as much as the wind changes direction, she is extremely flakey and a horrible candidate who tries to be that awkward aunt that you see trying to be the cool older one at the party trying to stay hip with the kids.
2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress
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Yeah Warren needs to drop out now
I’ve not been following much of this lately so surprised to see Warren fall so badly in Iowa and NH. What happened? She was one of the favourites a while back.
As for Biden; never liked him so he can feck off. If he doesn’t do well in NV and SC he’s toast. He may be already and that’s ok too.
As for Biden; never liked him so he can feck off. If he doesn’t do well in NV and SC he’s toast. He may be already and that’s ok too.
VP for Bernie?
She was never going to win the progressive vote over Sanders so she moved towards establishment and got exposed.
I am enjoying Biden's demise.
She was on an upward trajectory until she offered specifics on how she would pay for Medicare For All, and in the process estranged herself from both moderates and the Sanders crowd.
The only clear winner out of the first two states has to be Buttigieg, who no one thought would emerge with the delegate lead.
Nah, Buttigieg is obviously going to be ecstatic about where he is, but Bernie is the clear winner. Biden is done, Pete has an absolute mountain to climb with minorities and Bernie appears to have a huge part of the minority vote in the bag, especially with Latinos (who seem to get overlooked constantly by Dems who spend 99% of their time talking about the black vote but then just forget the Latino demographic despite it being a bigger proportion of the population).
I’m expecting a big Bernie win in NV and it’s going to be super difficult for anyone to catch him, especially if the moderates don’t coalesce before Super Tuesday.
Sanders underperformed in both places at a time when his chief rival imploded. Buttigieg went into both states with moderate expectations and came out with the delegate lead, which can’t be understated. He has now proven he’s the moderate/centrist guy to beat which will raise his numbers in many other states.
His entire strategy hinged on those two states, which is why he spent "all" his time there. Iowa was a definite success for him, but polling for NH already had him pretty close to Sanders before the voting. It shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone that he finished 2nd. If anything, it's a little bit worrying for him that Klobuchar, another moderate, had such a good performance relative to expectations.
That's not to say that I think this isn't going well for Buttigieg - it's pretty much his best-case scenario - but there's a reason FiveThirtyEight for example gives him only a 5% chance of being a majority winner. Though they do also back up your observation about Sanders. They have him as the favourite to win a majority, but a smaller favourite than before.
Sanders won the first two states.
Nevada next.
Nevada next.
Same was the case with Sanders last time when close finish in Iowa and win in NH allowed him to expand his presence in upcoming states. Pete definitely adopted the right strategy and there is no underplaying his performance so far. Given he is openly courting for backing from big financial donors, he can easily ramp up his presence in upcoming states. His main goal in first 2 states had to be to establish himself as an alternative to Sanders for all the so called moderates. I can see him getting more votes for Warren camp than Bernie as well given some of the support I have seen from him in twitter for being first gay candidate.
Klobuchar getting such a high percentage of support is an equal question mark for Sanders too. Given all the polling and his previous win in NH 2016, he definitely underperformed this time. In general Bernie last time outperformed most polls and this time that does not seems to be the case. I am sure people in his camp are a bit disappointed that he did not break the 30% barrier in either of the two states so far.
538 tracker had Biden as favourite just before Iowa. I don't think that is too relevant before Super Tuesday.
She tied medicare for all into other legislation (I think one was immigration). She had no reason to say "your taxes won't go up." She should have framed it around the idea that although taxes go up, you will be paying less in healthcare. Medicare for all is literally going to save money for the nation.
It’s not about finishing 2nd, it’s about projecting the narrative that he can compete with frontrunners and so far outperform both of them in terms of delegates. A vast majority of Dems want to beat Trump so logically, a candidate who looks he is punching well above his political weight is going to gain momentum after coming out of IA and NH with the delegate lead.
I do agree that it's slightly worrying for Sanders that he didn't win even more, but I definitely don't agree that Klobuchar doing well is a problem for Sanders. Another viable moderate in the race is great news for him. Sander's biggest problem, now that Warren seems to be slightly out of the picture, is if the moderates can gather around one candidate.
Has he gained that much momentum, though? He's gained enough to do well in Iowa and New Hampshire, but again, that was the basis for his entire strategy. I'm not sure we can say for sure what kind of moderate-uniting momentum he has gathered before Nevada and then South Carolina. Nationally, he's still polling below (well below sometimes) 15%. We'll see how that changes in the aftermath of New Hampshire, but I'm not so sure he'll gain that much. Right now Bloomberg has bought himself a 10-15% polling average, so he's in the moderate mix too.
Has he gained that much momentum, though? He's gained enough to do well in Iowa and New Hampshire, but again, that was the basis for his entire strategy. I'm not sure we can say for sure what kind of moderate-uniting momentum he has gathered before Nevada and then South Carolina. Nationally, he's still polling below (well below sometimes) 15%. We'll see how that changes in the aftermath of New Hampshire, but I'm not so sure he'll gain that much. Right now Bloomberg has bought himself a 10-15% polling average, so he's in the moderate mix too.
In context of how it played out in NH, it is good for Sanders that Klobuchar did so well under the assumption that otherwise Pete could have beaten him by gobbling up some of her vote share. Long term if he is banking on 3 centrists staying in the race for too long to allow him to win other states, then that's a losing one for me. He need converts from voters of those who drop out.
A guy like Pete needed to project the narrative that he can compete with the frontrunners, which he has so far done. Sanders needed to project that he has expanded his base of support from where it was in 2016. He beat Hillary by 22 points back then, and beat a relative newcomer by less than 2 last night. So while he got his share of delegates, he still needs to prove he has expanded from 16, which he has so far not done.
You can't compare a 2-person race with a 6+ person race.
The energy is only with about 3 people at the moment, so there really isn't much of a difference.
If on the other hand you wanted to combine the so called centrists v progressives, then the centrists would've won last night by a wide mrgain, as opposed to 4 years ago when Sanders trounced Hillary by 22 points.
There is a difference though. And notice how Biden's support is dropping. Bernie primed to pick those up in the South. Bloomberg's polling suggests he will take those (due to heavy advertising $$$$), but I imagine Bernie will get them when the time comes. He will eventually get torpedoed for his awful record with African Americans. And Pete is polling so awful with minorities that he probably won't win the nomination.
There’s a massive difference now, it’s an utterly different race and a number of Bernie’s ideas from 2016 have now become mainstream.
With the extra scrutiny on Pete thanks to CNN and MSNBC’s push for him, he’ll fall apart. Just look at how he looked like a deer in headlights when he got pressed on his record for black arrests in South Bend during the last debate. It’ll keep happening and people are going to see through his fake answers. So let’s hold up until a a state that isn’t pasty white gets to vote.
Butteigig has no path forward.
Neither has Klobuchar.
In reality it will be Sanders v Bloomberg, who has not been vetted at national level.
Sanders won and will win because of Health Care and Climate Change and other policies.
Neither has Klobuchar.
In reality it will be Sanders v Bloomberg, who has not been vetted at national level.
Sanders won and will win because of Health Care and Climate Change and other policies.
This part is spot on:
The most influential people on the planet, who decide our laws and wars, spend way too much time interacting with Iowans. So, who has influence over the most influential people in the world? Old white people. Specifically, about 171,000 of them, about a quarter of the population of Washington, DC, and just 15.7% of Iowans — a state with less than 1% of the US population and just 1.1% of the electoral votes.
The Iowa caucus has more sway over who gets the nomination than any media firm, ethnic group, or other state, as it provides focus and momentum in the all-important attention graph. So a state with the population of Chicago, whose inhabitants are 90% white, does what almost every policy and institution in America does: transfer wealth from the young and non-white to the old and white. Even in the land of old and white, it gets whiter and older — caucus attendees must have the time and money to caucus. Show me a single Latina mother, and I'll show you someone who can't make it to a caucus.
Dems also need to be more strategic. Millions of dollars, hours, ads, and corn dogs are concentrated on small states that don't make a big dent in the effort to organize and activate the national voter base. There are nearly twice as many registered Dems in Brooklyn as the entire state of Iowa. Iowa has a population of 3.2 million, New Hampshire 1.4 million, Nevada 3.1 million, South Carolina 5.1 million. Iowa is currently a non-competitive general election state, and little of all this work can be harnessed in November. . Millions of dollars, hours, ads, and corn dogs are concentrated on small states that don't make a big dent in the effort to organize and activate the national voter base. There are nearly twice as many registered Dems in Brooklyn as the entire state of Iowa. Iowa has a population of 3.2 million, New Hampshire 1.4 million, Nevada 3.1 million, South Carolina 5.1 million. Iowa is currently a non-competitive general election state, and little of all this work can be harnessed in November.
The most influential people on the planet, who decide our laws and wars, spend way too much time interacting with Iowans. So, who has influence over the most influential people in the world? Old white people. Specifically, about 171,000 of them, about a quarter of the population of Washington, DC, and just 15.7% of Iowans — a state with less than 1% of the US population and just 1.1% of the electoral votes.
The Iowa caucus has more sway over who gets the nomination than any media firm, ethnic group, or other state, as it provides focus and momentum in the all-important attention graph. So a state with the population of Chicago, whose inhabitants are 90% white, does what almost every policy and institution in America does: transfer wealth from the young and non-white to the old and white. Even in the land of old and white, it gets whiter and older — caucus attendees must have the time and money to caucus. Show me a single Latina mother, and I'll show you someone who can't make it to a caucus.
Dems also need to be more strategic. Millions of dollars, hours, ads, and corn dogs are concentrated on small states that don't make a big dent in the effort to organize and activate the national voter base. There are nearly twice as many registered Dems in Brooklyn as the entire state of Iowa. Iowa has a population of 3.2 million, New Hampshire 1.4 million, Nevada 3.1 million, South Carolina 5.1 million. Iowa is currently a non-competitive general election state, and little of all this work can be harnessed in November. . Millions of dollars, hours, ads, and corn dogs are concentrated on small states that don't make a big dent in the effort to organize and activate the national voter base. There are nearly twice as many registered Dems in Brooklyn as the entire state of Iowa. Iowa has a population of 3.2 million, New Hampshire 1.4 million, Nevada 3.1 million, South Carolina 5.1 million. Iowa is currently a non-competitive general election state, and little of all this work can be harnessed in November.
f/u on this
This makes a lot of sense. The leading Dem candidates spent in total over 400 days campaigning in IOWA, a state with a few delegates that Trump will win! Just move the early primary to Ohio or Michigan, so you can build something you can use during the general. Or New York, California where the actual democrats live. feck Iowa, this obsession with middle America is so stupid
CNN is a joke.
attack the messenger.
That stupid whore...
what is your real profession?
attack the messenger.
That stupid whore...
what is your real profession?
When you outspend all other candidates on ads the way Bloomberg does you are implicitly paying for favorable coverage. Normally candidates more or less cancel eachother out.
DNC will cheat Sanders anyway
Which candidate has the backing of the wealthy? That's the one to watch.
The rest will be picked off one by one, if they look to be a threat to the favoured candidate.
The rest will be picked off one by one, if they look to be a threat to the favoured candidate.
Other than Sanders the rest have corporate backing in one form or another.
Bloomberg is an Oligarch and has unlimited funds.
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