2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress

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DavidDeSchmikes said:
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a spectre is haunting america - the spectre of bernard. all the powers of old america have entered into holy alliance to exorcise him - high-school educated evangelicals and college postgrads, breitbart and wapo, fbi and trump, pelosi and mcconnell.
 
warren is seeing an uptick in every single poll, putting her at or above the threshold. biden seems to be slipping in at least 2 of 3 polls. i'm a little worried warren could win iowa on 2nd counting, especially from amy/pete voters. as long as biden doesn't win, bernie is alive, but it's not ideal.
 
berbatrick said:
warren is seeing an uptick in every single poll, putting her at or above the threshold. biden seems to be slipping in at least 2 of 3 polls. i'm a little worried warren could win iowa on 2nd counting, especially from amy/pete voters. as long as biden doesn't win, bernie is alive, but it's not ideal.
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On the other hand, if Selzer’s poll is correct and Buttman makes it through while Biden falls short, he’s almost certain to win the 2nd round with the olds flicking to him.
 
InfiniteBoredom said:
On the other hand, if Selzer’s poll is correct and Buttman makes it through while Biden falls short, he’s almost certain to win the 2nd round with the olds flicking to him.
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yes butt* really needs to make it through in many precints, if warren does as well. biden voters will split evenly between warren, butt*, and bernie based on national polling.
 
berbatrick said:
warren is seeing an uptick in every single poll, putting her at or above the threshold. biden seems to be slipping in at least 2 of 3 polls. i'm a little worried warren could win iowa on 2nd counting, especially from amy/pete voters. as long as biden doesn't win, bernie is alive, but it's not ideal.
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Isn't the idea that Bernie will outperform the polls ? Because his campaign is targeting non voters who are less likely to be picked up by polling companies ?

Unless Bernie wins big tomorrow, then I think we might be fecked in the long run.
 
Eboue said:
just say buttchug
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you tolerate getting shouted at better than me. ive used every other variation and am proud that i've refused to learn the correct spelling.


Sweet Square said:
Isn't the idea that Bernie will outperform the polls ? Because his campaign is targeting non voters who are less likely to be picked up by polling companies ?

Unless Bernie wins big tomorrow, then I think we might be fecked in the long run.
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at this point if he just performs to his polling in the first 2 states (i.e., wins), and gets a boost in the next two (which would be expected, and would mean 3 wins of 4), he won't need to outperform much. he's about 5 behind nationally (halved since the start of jan) and after that initial sequence he'll get the boost he needs.
 
berbatrick said:
at this point if he just performs to his polling in the first 2 states (i.e., wins), and gets a boost in the next two (which would be expected, and would mean 3 wins of 4), he won't need to outperform much. he's about 5 behind nationally (halved since the start of jan) and after that initial sequence he'll get the boost he needs.
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Cheers.
 
I think John Kerry just sealed Iowa for Sanders. The first sign of a progressive winning and the PUMA's are back.
 
Raoul said:
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How would that play out with 2nd votes?
Probably very close between all four I suspect once kloubchar etc votes are redistributed... There is probably 20% of votes to be split between the candidates and although I could see a chunk of the Yang gang might transfer to Bernie the kloubchar stayer and gabbard votes would I imagine go to others
Also it's precinct by precinct and I wonder how much of a candidates support is centred in particular precincts
 
berbatrick said:
Interesting, long, unedited article, about (mostly older) Dem voters who have switched preferences during this primary:
https://theintercept.com/2020/02/02/voters-switched-candidates/
THE UNFILTERED THOUGHTS OF VOTERS WHO’VE SWITCHED
Based on this, Bloomberg could really threaten later, and Bernie has benefitted by getting his people back from Warren.
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I loved this one..
I have mostly ever lived in a bubble, under a rock as far as politics go. No cable, no social media. I was always proudly punk rock, anti-establishment, burn the shit to the ground. Since Trump has been president, I realized that he could actually kill my oldest son. There is no way I could afford the $5,000 dollar a month in medications, the doctors’ visits, surgeries and therapy he needs. Every year since Trump got elected things have gotten worse. I read an article about the Reagan purge, where people died waiting and being denied money and health insurance. I am sure that’s what Trump is trying to do. Let the brown, black, poor and disabled die. It’s just been nonstop feckery.

For the first time ever, I am excited for an election. I hadn’t heard of any of these people when they announced they were running. I was excited for Elizabeth Warren, and Andrew Yang. I donated to both candidates. I thought wow! This is awesome, they are running on everything my kids need! Then their stories started to crack and neither of them were what they said they were. I’m not a doctor, but I am sure that the spirit of insurance isn’t going to help anyone. Elizabeth’s plans suck and she lies about the weirdest shit. Enter Bernie Sanders, he is every damn thing he says he is. The more I read and hear from him the more I love! I didn’t even know what being a progressive was or what a socialist was. Apparently, I am both. Maybe they are the same thing? The first time I voted was for Obama, I did so out of guilt from my mother. I got a jury summons after that and swore never to vote again. I am willing to get a jury summons for Bernie Sanders. And fight for someone I don’t know.
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If all the people totally disconnected from politics actually got involved like this woman, then Bernie would already be president.
 
sun_tzu said:
How would that play out with 2nd votes?
Probably very close between all four I suspect once kloubchar etc votes are redistributed... There is probably 20% of votes to be split between the candidates and although I could see a chunk of the Yang gang might transfer to Bernie the kloubchar stayer and gabbard votes would I imagine go to others
Also it's precinct by precinct and I wonder how much of a candidates support is centred in particular precincts
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Bernie will get most of gabbard and a large chunk of steyer voters. Only klobucher voters will heavily switch to pete and biden
 
berbatrick said:
a spectre is haunting america - the spectre of bernard. all the powers of old america have entered into holy alliance to exorcise him - high-school educated evangelicals and college postgrads, breitbart and wapo, fbi and trump, pelosi and mcconnell.
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He's the polar opposite of that shithead in the White House and would be a fantastic choice for this country. It may have a tea party effect on the Democratic party and force these old feckers and corporate centrists to defend a true progressive agenda even though they don't fully agree. But this election is too important to sit out regardless of the nominee. I would rather fight with a Dem president and Senate to champion progressive causes than a lawless Senate and a dumbfeck president who thinks Kansas City is in Kansas. I can see Sanders gaining serious momentum after Iowa and if he's the nominee with full backing I'm confident he could win in November
 
sun_tzu said:
I'd say the opposite as a Bernie candidacy is in my opinion the most likley to result in a trump 2nd term meaning the whole world will be fecked in the long run
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Oh silly, the whole world is fecked regardless of who wins(The potential of a Bernie presidency is basically our last shot at really taking climate change seriously). But really at the moment its seems Trump is going to be very difficult to beat for any of the candidates. Polling on the economy is looking decent for Trump and I don't think he's pissed off any major part of his base.
 
Sweet Square said:
Oh silly, the whole world is fecked regardless of who wins(The potential of a Bernie presidency is basically our last shot at really taking climate change seriously). But really at the moment its seems Trump is going to be very difficult to beat for any of the candidates. Polling on the economy is looking decent for Trump and I don't think he's pissed off any major part of his base.
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He looks almost certain to lose the popular vote again (he's trailing all the serious candidates nationwide). The big question is what will happen in the swing states he narrowly won last time around, like Wisconsin.

If the Democrats manage to successfully mobilise their base, they'll win - but that's a big fecking IF.
 
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Biden and his team straight-up lying that he is running on a progressive platform. This dude isn't even trying to cover up before he says something stupid.
 
Siorac said:
He looks almost certain to lose the popular vote again (he's trailing all the serious candidates nationwide). The big question is what will happen in the swing states he narrowly won last time around, like Wisconsin.

If the Democrats manage to successfully mobilise their base, they'll win - but that's a big fecking IF.
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Good video on who the Dems need to win over

 
berbatrick said:


Watch the video- he literally cannot win. Gerrymandering. It's Biden.
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To elaborate, he'd need a 28-21 margin just to tie! 25-20 would be a loss. Only Warren or Biden under 15 in tons of places can save him now.
 
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Trump 2020 it is then. Absolutely zero chance Biden is going to beat him.
 
Fergies Gum said:
Tonight could go horribly wrong with all the new rules. The fact that a coin toss will decide some of the results tonight is just wrong.

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/02/new-rules-might-complicate-iowa-caucus/605950/
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For the 2020 contest, though, there are a few major changes. Caucus-goers who choose a viable candidate in the first round can’t switch. For the first time ever, voters will write down their choices on preference cards, in case there’s a recount. If a precinct has only a small number of delegates to give out, even supporters of viable candidates may have to realign; which group realigns could depend on a coin toss. (The state party instructs caucus chairs to bring their own quarter or some “other method to conduct a game of chance.”) “Some precincts have three delegates, and it’s not inconceivable that five candidates are viable,” Dockendorff said.
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what a fecking mess. the obvious alignment would be with the top 3.
 
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