2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress

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oneniltothearsenal said:
The betting markets suggest he might not be the nominee. The increasing worries about his gaffes that cause his staff to already reduce his appearances this far suggest he might not even be capable of finishing a general election campaign. The donation maps that show Bernie's domination getting most donors with Warren a definitive second suggests Biden might not have the actual support the polls imply. And the fact that Buttigieg has been steadily collecting a huge amount of money from the every wealthy neighborhood suggest the rich Dems are not so enamored with Biden as they were Hilary.

So yeah it does look like you believe the polls are infallible when you ignore every other data point except selective polling. Nothing to suggest" is not really a fair or true statement:

2020-democratic-fundraising-promo-1564702829775-facebookJumbo.jpg


ELIZABETH WARREN OVERTAKES JOE BIDEN AS FAVORITE TO WIN DEMOCRATIC PARTY'S 2020 PRIMARY: U.K. BOOKMAKER
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He's been getting hammered for massaging people's shoulders and being on the wrong side of racial issues for months now and is still dominantly in the lead. He also continues to dominate the others among black voters. Until that changes, he's the leader of the pack by a good distance. The gaffe machine stuff is already baked in.
 
Raoul said:
He's been getting hammered for massaging people's shoulders and being on the wrong side of racial issues for months now and is still dominantly in the lead. He also continues to dominate the other among black voters. Until that changes, he's the leader of the pack by a good distance. The gaffe machine stuff is baked already baked in.
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You haven't made a single point that proves that you don't believe your beloved polling is infallible, you are increasingly ignoring every single data point outside of whatever polls you link. And no, his gaffes are absolutely not "baked in". That silly statement relies on the belief that these are not cumulative (when historically they are) and they don't have threshold points. Your posts basically sound like blind faith in establishment polling being infallible.
 
oneniltothearsenal said:
You haven't made a single point that proves that you don't believe your beloved polling is infallible, you are increasingly ignoring every single data point outside of your beloved polling. And no, his gaffes are absolutely not "baked in". Your posts basically sound like blind faith in establishment polling being infallible.
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I don't consider gambling connoisseur sites to be credible data points. How about providing some polling (or a poll of polls) to justify your argument that Biden isn't in the lead in most states ?
 
Raoul said:
I don't consider gambling connoisseur sites to be credible data points. How about providing some polling (or a poll of polls) to justify your argument that Biden isn't in the lead in most states ?
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Oh boyo, just admit you consider polling infallible because here you are literally discarding any other data about the election. You are championing the same people that said Hilary Clinton had a 90% chance of winning as the gold standard in election predictions with the defense "but, but Trump still had that 10% of winning so the polling is still the only thing we should consider."

^not exactly a compelling argument for these establishment polls being any more credible as data points.

You said "there is nothing to suggest Biden won't be the nominee". Multiple data points suggest Biden might not be the nominee:

  1. The betting markets suggest he might not be the nominee.
  2. The increasing worries about his gaffes that cause his staff to already reduce his appearances this far suggest he might not even be capable of finishing a general election campaign - this is something cumulative not isolated single incidents.
  3. The donation maps that show Bernie's domination getting most donors with Warren a definitive second suggests Biden might not have the actual support the polls imply.
  4. Buttigieg has been steadily collecting a huge amount of money from the every wealthy neighborhood suggest the rich Dems are not so enamored with Biden as they were Hilary to justify blind faith in polling at this early stage.

So again what you really meant to say was "there is no polling that I personally rate that suggests Biden won't be the nominee." It's just misleading and dishonest to say "there is nothing to suggest"
 
oneniltothearsenal said:
@Raoul

I get that you desperately want to believe your polls are infallible despite the fact that even polls from the same data sets are arbitrary and can swing as much as 8 percent points in head to head matchups depending on how the data is processed so as of this moment, there is nothing to suggest the pollsters have learned their lessons from 2016 and have any greater insight into the Dem primary than the World Cup fortune telling octopus.
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That's exactly what the 2020 election needs.
 
Here is the map without Bernie. People need to stop asserting this narrative that the polling is so definitive this far out when no one will be actually voting under the current conditions the polls are being conducted. Plus we don't even have the raw data with the establishment polls but the subjective processed results that could swing greatly from what the reality is.

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The desperation of the Corporate machinery to push its candidate is slaughtering Bernie on the media.

Importantly Biden cannot beat Trump being this incompetent. I honestly believe his so called gaffes are due to serious issues with him. He cannot articulate sentences/thoughts.

And also if we were interested in the country, the last thing we would want is a guy who is on the way to being seriously incapable of governing.
 
oneniltothearsenal said:
Oh boyo, just admit you consider polling infallible because here you are literally discarding any other data about the election. I mean here you are championing the same people that said Hilary Clinton had a 90% chance of winning with the defense "but, but Trump still had that 10% of winning so the polling is still the only thing we should consider.

You said "there is nothing to suggest Biden won't be the nominee". Multiple data points suggest Biden might not be the nominee:

  1. The betting markets suggest he might not be the nominee.
  2. The increasing worries about his gaffes that cause his staff to already reduce his appearances this far suggest he might not even be capable of finishing a general election campaign - this is something cumulative not isolated single incidents.
  3. The donation maps that show Bernie's domination getting most donors with Warren a definitive second suggests Biden might not have the actual support the polls imply.
  4. Buttigieg has been steadily collecting a huge amount of money from the every wealthy neighborhood suggest the rich Dems are not so enamored with Biden as they were Hilary.

So again what you really meant to say was "there is no polling that I personally rate that suggests Biden won't be the nominee." It's just misleading and dishonest to say "there is nothing to suggest"
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The sudden fascination with oddsmakers is interesting, especially since they had Beto as the next President 7 months ago.

https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/...lain-why-beto-is-the-2020-democratic-favorite

As for your above points 2-4 - I doubt Biden is sweating his fundraising since he's not people funded and won't have any issues as long as he continues to be perceived as the person with the best chance of beating Trump. That could of course change but there's nothing to suggest that's happened as of now.
 
Red Dreams said:
The desperation of the Corporate machinery to push its candidate is slaughtering Bernie on the media.

Importantly Biden cannot beat Trump being this incompetent. I honestly believe his so called gaffes are due to serious issues with him. He cannot articulate sentences/thoughts.

And also if we were interested in the country, the last thing we would want is a guy who is on the way to being seriously incapable of governing.
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Bernie seems to be slipping down into Harris territory of late. Seems like Warren has replaced him in his previous spot.
 
Red Dreams said:
Did you see the media coverage of Bernie's Iowa State Fair visit?
It was completely false.

Feel free to trust your polls.
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I'm sure TYT and Kyle Kulinkski provided ample positive coverage for Bernie. He also went on Rogan, whose show is watched by millions.
 
Raoul said:
The sudden fascination with oddsmakers is interesting, especially since they had Beto as the next President 7 months ago.

https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/...lain-why-beto-is-the-2020-democratic-favorite

As for your above points 2-4 - I doubt Biden is sweating his fundraising since he's not people funded and won't have any issues as long as he continues to be perceived as the person with the best chance of beating Trump. That could of course change but there's nothing to suggest that's happened as of now.
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None of this relevant to the original point. It was quite simply misleading and disingenuous to say "there is nothing to suggest" when what you really meant was "I only rate certain polls and there is nothing in the certain polls I rate that suggests"

And its not sudden Raoul. I followed political futures markets throughout the late 90s and 00s and during that twenty year period I was actively following they were more accurate than polling.
 
Raoul said:
I'm sure TYT and Kyle Kulinkski provided ample positive coverage for Bernie. He also went on Rogan, whose show is watched by millions.
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The point is Bernie's support is solid.
Not so with Biden.
He may be seen as the establishment front runner, but he has no enthusiasm.

We will know with Iowa and NH as we get closer and the campaigning gets intense.

Importantly Biden has nothing to offer. He wont get the votes.
 
Red Dreams said:
The point is Bernie's support is solid.
Not so with Biden.
He may be seen as the establishment front runner, but he has no enthusiasm.

We will know with Iowa and NH as we get closer and the campaigning gets intense.

Importantly Biden has nothing to offer. He wont get the votes.
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I agree with the last bit but I doubt people vote on just policy ideas. They often vote on cultural familiarity or for someone they just feel comfortable with.
 
Raoul said:
I agree with the last bit but I doubt people vote on just policy ideas. They often vote on cultural familiarity or for someone they just feel comfortable with.
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You are actually supporting what I said.
Trump has fanatic followers. Biden only has 'The other guy is bad'. Same story with Hillary. Except she looked capable.

Also it is important to see what the DNC does to push him to the nomination if that happens. How will a Bernie base react to another 'cheating' of their candidate.
Bernie has accused Washington Post and NY Times of dishonest coverage.

The Dems cannot win without the Progressive base. We need to remember, its the Mid West Biden needs to carry. Not the South.
Turnout/Enthusiasm is key.

It can all turn upside down easy.

Final thought. Biden does not have it in him to fight a brutal campaign against Trump who is desperate to remain in office because the day he leaves office arrest warrants await him for all his crimes.
 
Allies to Joe Biden have been floating the idea of altering the former vice president's schedule in an effort to reduce the gaffes he has made in recent days.

Biden has a tendency to make the blunders late in the day, his allies say, particularly after a long swing on the road, like he had last week in Iowa. They say something needs to be done to give the candidate more down time as the campaign intensifies in the fall.
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https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/457486-biden-allies-float-scaling-back-events-to-limit-gaffes


Former President Barack Obama wasn’t so sure Joe Biden, his former veep, should run for president in 2020, The New York Times reported Friday.

“You don’t have to do this, Joe, you really don’t,” Obama told Biden earlier this year, according to a Times source, prior to the former senator jumping into the crowded Democratic primary field. According to the Times, “Mr. Biden — who thinks he could have defeated Donald Trump four years ago — responded by telling Mr. Obama he could never forgive himself if he turned down a second shot at Mr. Trump.”

The Times also reported that Obama met with top Biden advisers in March and, according to the sources, requested that the ex-veep’s team do what they can so that Biden does not “embarrass himself” or “damage his legacy.”
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https://www.thedailybeast.com/obama...you-dont-have-to-do-this-joe?via=twitter_page

The guy that keeps gaffing on the campaign trail, the guy that says nothing will change for people as a campaign slogan, the guy that does deals with republicans to screw over democrats, the guy that campaigned for a republican in the mid-terms and then rejected to endorse the democrat...IS A BAD CANDIDATE!!!

This guy is such a clusterflap of a candidate that even Obama has to leak to the media that he's awful to try and protect his legacy.

A biden nomination will be Trump's best shot at a second term.
 
WPMUFC said:
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/457486-biden-allies-float-scaling-back-events-to-limit-gaffes




https://www.thedailybeast.com/obama...you-dont-have-to-do-this-joe?via=twitter_page

The guy that keeps gaffing on the campaign trail, the guy that says nothing will change for people as a campaign slogan, the guy that does deals with republicans to screw over democrats, the guy that campaigned for a republican in the mid-terms and then rejected to endorse the democrat...IS A BAD CANDIDATE!!!

This guy is such a clusterflap of a candidate that even Obama has to leak to the media that he's awful to try and protect his legacy.

A biden nomination will be Trump's best shot at a second term.
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Campaigning for a Republican was overblown way out of proportions. He praised him for introducing a bill which would improve cancer care, and knowing Biden's personal history with cancer, I cannot blame him for doing so.

In all polls, Biden does better than any other Democrat against Trump.
 
Red Dreams said:
You are actually supporting what I said.
Trump has fanatic followers. Biden only has 'The other guy is bad'. Same story with Hillary. Except she looked capable.

Also it is important to see what the DNC does to push him to the nomination if that happens. How will a Bernie base react to another 'cheating' of their candidate.
Bernie has accused Washington Post and NY Times of dishonest coverage.

The Dems cannot win without the Progressive base. We need to remember, its the Mid West Biden needs to carry. Not the South.
Turnout/Enthusiasm is key.

It can all turn upside down easy.

Final thought. Biden does not have it in him to fight a brutal campaign against Trump who is desperate to remain in office because the day he leaves office arrest warrants await him for all his crimes.
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There is no way Bernie fans could feel he was cheated this time when he has consistently trailed in the polls

At some point you will have to accept he just isn't that popular
 
Revan said:
Campaigning for a Republican was overblown way out of proportions. He praised him for introducing a bill which would improve cancer care, and knowing Biden's personal history with cancer, I cannot blame him for doing so.
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https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/...supported-a-republican-in-a-dollar200k-speech

And when asked to endorse the democrat in a tight race...what did Biden do?

As the Times reported, that phrase quickly appeared in Republican advertising, and when Upton's Democratic challenger tried to get the former vice president to do something in response, “There was nothing but silence,” the candidate, Matt Longjohn, told the paper. (Upton ultimately won by 4.5 points, the smallest margin of his career.)
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oh right, nothing.


From May/2019 biden has been on a massive slide.

May - 41% average
August 30.5% Average

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/e..._democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

You aren't supposed to drop in the polls the more people see you in public if you have a strong candidacy.


In GE averaged polls Biden and Sanders tie or Biden has a small advantage. However both Biden and Sander demolish trump. The problem with biden is that continually gaffing doesn't help those polls and won't help him when it's Trump v Biden. The last thing Biden needs is to be seen as Hillary 2.0 and that's EXACTLY what he's doing.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/general_election/
 
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lsd said:
There is no way Bernie fans could feel he was cheated this time when he has consistently trailed in the polls

At some point you will have to accept he just isn't that popular
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If you put him in a two horse race where there’s a binary choice then he does fine. When there are other strong progressives in the race he wobbles quite a bit. Warren has more appeal to broader parts of the party from progressives to normal Dems, so it’s not surprising that she is doing well and more or less slowly replacing him on the progressive side.
 
Raoul said:
If you put him in a two horse race where there’s a binary choose then he does fine. When there are other strong progressives in the race he wobbles quite a bit. Warren has more appeal to broader parts of the part from progressive to normal Dems, so it’s not surprising that she is doing well and more or less slowly replacing him on the progressive side.
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Im hoping Warren wins hopefully she will pick up more and more support even if Bernie will still go on to the end
 
Revan said:
In all polls, Biden does better than any other Democrat against Trump.
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That’s the key aspect of him being the leader at the moment. People want Trump out and see him as having the best chance of doing it. Unless that changes and he loses the massive black support he’s getting, he is gliding towards a good result.
 
Raoul said:
That’s the key aspect of him being the leader at the moment. People want Trump out and see him as having the best chance of doing it. Unless that changes and he loses the massive black support he’s getting, he is gliding towards a good result.
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It's too early to say he's gliding towards anything. I guess that depends on what you consider a good result. Personally I'd only consider winning a good result, and it's perfectly plausible that he doesn't win the nomination even if he stays at 30%. Maybe that's his ceiling?
 
Biden's Gaffes.

We all misspeak. But when we are focused on work, we rarely do that.
Biden is aware of this problem. Yet he is unable to correct it.
That is because it is a medical problem.

The fact the DNC is pushing someone like this to be president proves what Progressives have been saying. A corporate owned party does not care about the competence of a president.
It only wants a hand that can be controlled to sign bills that favour it.

There is zero compulsion to vote for such a candidate.
 
nimic said:
It's too early to say he's gliding towards anything. I guess that depends on what you consider a good result. Personally I'd only consider winning a good result, and it's perfectly plausible that he doesn't win the nomination even if he stays at 30%. Maybe that's his ceiling?
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He wont stay there since people will drop out of the race in the coming months, which along with more campaigning, debates, and now ads, will move numbers. The big problem for the other candidates is that Biden is currently gobbling up about 50% of the black vote, which means the others won't have any chance of winning unless that number drops by at least 20-30%. If Warren or Sanders ever make a significant dent in that number they will have a chance.
 
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Red Dreams said:
Biden's Gaffes.

We all misspeak. But when we are focused on work, we rarely do that.
Biden is aware of this problem. Yet he is unable to correct it.
That is because it is a medical problem.

The fact the DNC is pushing someone like this to be president proves what Progressives have been saying. A corporate owned party does not care about the competence of a president.
It only wants a hand that can be controlled to sign bills that favour it.

There is zero compulsion to vote for such a candidate.
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For the love of everything, stop speculating such weird crap.

Also, in 2016, it's about Bernie Sanders and his unknown platform and not given enough media coverage. This time, he has been a leader from day one. You can't hide behind 'Corporate media' and 'DNC' forever. Then stop fecking running and do it as a third party candidate.
 
Beto trying to leverage the domestic terrorism in El Paso for his campaign: taking a break to visit the site of the Murrah bombing in OKC and Greenwood the site of the Tulsa race riots.

I might walk down the street to check it out...
 
Ramshock said:
Is Harris not as popular with the African American voter as she should be?
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They are on the whole quite conservative, and generally go for the perceived ‘safer’ choice, unless something changes dramatically (Barrack Obama winning Iowa in 08).

That being said, they are not a safe group at all for Biden. If the perception that he’s not Obama’s choice becomes established, he’ll lose them in droves. That’s the whole deal with Biden really, he’s just not a talented politician (obviously speaking at national level, since he was talented enough to climb the ladder to Senator), nor is he in command of a die hard base, like the Clintons. He’s always been gaffish comical uncle Joe, and anytime he went out on his own without a better political talent to latch on to, it ended ignominiously.
 
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Raoul said:
Bernie seems to be slipping down into Harris territory of late. Seems like Warren has replaced him in his previous spot.
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Let's see how she holds up to a year of constant Pocahontas jibes ... Not well I suspect (which is a shame she seems like a credible candidate and certainly in my eyes better than trump but I am not sure she will match up well with trump when the insults start flying... Rise above it and I think she will look disconnected... Get in a pissing contest and get dragged down to trump's level)

Will be interesting to see if her and Bernie turn on each other in the next debate
 
fishfingers15 said:
For the love of everything, stop speculating such weird crap.

Also, in 2016, it's about Bernie Sanders and his unknown platform and not given enough media coverage. This time, he has been a leader from day one. You can't hide behind 'Corporate media' and 'DNC' forever. Then stop fecking running and do it as a third party candidate.
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With all due respect you know feck all about anything.
 
sun_tzu said:
Let's see how she holds up to a year of constant Pocahontas jibes ... Not well I suspect (which is a shame she seems like a credible candidate and certainly in my eyes better than trump but I am not sure she will match up well with trump when the insults start flying... Rise above it and I think she will look disconnected... Get in a pissing contest and get dragged down to trump's level)

Will be interesting to see if her and Bernie turn on each other in the next debate
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They wont turn on each other. They had the chance.

The Pocahontas jibes only works with the shit-for -brains who are already Trump muppets.
 
Red Dreams said:
They wont turn on each other. They had the chance.

The Pocahontas jibes only works with the shit-for -brains who are already Trump muppets.
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Let's see... I think trump will win a second term... I hope not but I can see him winning against any of the current Dems though of course circumstances can dictate a lot but that said he's in a better place to shape the agenda than anybody else
 
sun_tzu said:
Let's see... I think trump will win a second term... I hope not but I can see him winning against any of the current Dems though of course circumstances can dictate a lot but that said he's in a better place to shape the agenda than anybody else
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Trump's biggest advantage is that Dems are factionalized into two camps (progressives v ordinary Dems) and since at least one of the two camps would rather stay home than vote for the other, it could wind up giving Trump just enough to pull off another improbable win.
 
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