2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress

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Revan said:
He wasn't able to defeat Cruz who has become quite unpopular after 2016, s sure as hell he ain't beating Cornyn.

He needs to carefully pick what he is doing next. If he loses another time, it is gonna be hard for him to be taken seriously.
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The Cruz thing is a bit of a red herring since Cruz had a pretty good chance of winning the Presidency if not for Trump. So as hated as some think he is, the results on the GOP side in 2016 don’t bear that out. If not for Trump he would’ve at a minimum pushed Hillary to the finish line, if not actually won. Therefore pushing Cruz to within a couple of points in red Texas is a pretty good result and certainly worthy of a political future at a national level.
 
Raoul said:
The Cruz thing is a bit of a red herring since Cruz had a pretty good chance of winning the Presidency if not for Trump. So as hated as some think he is, the results on the GOP side in 2016 don’t bear that out. If not for Trump he would’ve at a minimum pushed Hillary to the finish line, if not actually won. Therefore pushing Cruz to within a couple of points in red Texas is a pretty good result and certainly worthy of a political future at a national level.
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He should have called him lying Ted and suggested his dad killed JFK
I mean why change a winning formula
 
sun_tzu said:
He should have called him lying Ted and suggested his dad killed JFK
I mean why change a winning formula
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I believe there were some billboards of Trump's tweets taking the piss out of him that were put up in Texas, was quite amusing.
 
Raoul said:
The Cruz thing is a bit of a red herring since Cruz had a pretty good chance of winning the Presidency if not for Trump. So as hated as some think he is, the results on the GOP side in 2016 don’t bear that out. If not for Trump he would’ve at a minimum pushed Hillary to the finish line, if not actually won. Therefore pushing Cruz to within a couple of points in red Texas is a pretty good result and certainly worthy of a political future at a national level.
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Cruz was very popular, but considering that he went against Trump, Trump's rabbit base doesn't like him anymore. I think that if it wasn't for Trump going and making rallies for him, he would have actually lost against O'Rourke.

Eboue said:
No one should take him seriously after he answered a question about food deserts by saying he wants more farm to table restaurants. Every time I see his name I think of that and laugh.
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Aye. Also talking about fighting climate change while being one of the top (second biggest?) receivers from oil industry during the time he was a congressman.
 
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The drawback and opportunity of Bernie's campaigns are the electability voters, given Bernie's excellent H2H polling.
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I don't follow politics at all... Why do people hate Jeremy Corbin? And is it true that Brexit might not happen? Sorry for such basic questions.
 
Why a catholic poll then a white catholic poll . Are the the majority of Catholics in America non white ?
 
This echoes what I am starting to hear from friends talking to establishment voters. The confidence in Biden actually being "electable" is starting to weaken. My personal belief is that the Fall debates are going to sink Biden. They can't keep propping him up and hiding him from he public and think voters are dumb enough to not see it.

ELIZABETH WARREN OVERTAKES JOE BIDEN AS FAVORITE TO WIN DEMOCRATIC PARTY'S 2020 PRIMARY: U.K. BOOKMAKER
"It looks like the betting market is going a little cold on Biden despite his general lead in the polls," Matthew Shaddick, head of political betting at Ladbrokes, told Newsweek. "Warren seemed to get a boost after the last set of debates and, in particular, seems to be performing well in Iowa."
https://www.newsweek.com/elizabeth-warren-joe-biden-favorite-odds-2020-democratic-primary-1454706
 
Raoul said:
As of this moment there nothing to suggest he wont be. He has a dominant lead in most of the states, especially in the south.
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I literally just linked something that "suggests he won't be" : the political betting markets and oddsmakers. Now you can declare what you arbitrarily believe all you want but its literally false for you to declare there is "nothing to suggest" when in fact there is quite literally something that has historically proven more accurate than the vast majority of polling to suggest he won't be.
 
oneniltothearsenal said:
I literally just linked something that "suggests he won't be" : the political betting markets and oddsmakers. Now you can declare what you arbitrarily believe all you want but its literally false for you to declare there is "nothing to suggest" when in fact there is quite literally something that has historically proven more accurate than the vast majority of polling to suggest he won't be.
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I get that people desperately don't want Biden but he's still leading in most states. Let me know when that changes and I'll start taking "oddsmakers" more seriously.
 
@Raoul

I get that you desperately want to believe your polls are infallible despite the fact that even polls from the same data sets are arbitrary and can swing as much as 8 percent points in head to head matchups depending on how the data is processed so as of this moment, there is nothing to suggest the pollsters have learned their lessons from 2016 and have any greater insight into the Dem primary than the World Cup fortune telling octopus.
 
oneniltothearsenal said:
@Raoul

I get that you desperately want to believe your polls are infallible despite the fact that even the same data sets are arbitrary and can swing as much as 8 percent points in head to head matchups but as of this moment, there is nothing to suggest the pollsters have learned their lessons from 2016 and have any greater insight into the Dem primary than they did the 2016 general election or the World Cup fortune telling octopus.
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I don't think they're infallible. I just don't think that nearly every poll that happens to be showing Biden leading the others, sometimes by double digits, is wrong. I also don't see Warren or Sanders having any chance in the south, and with 15% proportional delegates, both are facing a massive uphill struggle to keep up with Biden (who has no centrist opponent to siphon his delegates like Warren and Sanders do with each other on the progressive side).
 
Raoul said:
I don't think they're infallible. I just don't think that nearly every poll that happens to be showing Biden leading the others, sometimes by double digits, is wrong. I also don't see Warren or Sanders having any chance in the south, and with 15% proportional delegates, both are going to have a massive uphill struggle to keep up with Biden (who has no centrist opponent to siphon his delegates like Warren and Sanders do with eachother on the progressive side).
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People literally made this exact same argument with Hilary in 2016 general election so I take it with a Grand Canyon's worth of salt. We all know the equations are going to change by the time voting actually starts so its simply disingenuous to suggest there is "nothing to suggest Biden won't be the nominee".
 
oneniltothearsenal said:
People literally made this exact same argument with Hilary in 2016 general election so I take it with a Grand Canyon's worth of salt. We all know the equations are going to change by the time voting actually starts so its simply disingenuous to suggest there is "nothing to suggest Biden won't be the nominee". The betting markets suggest he might not be the nominee. The increasing worries about his gaffes that cause his staff to already reduce his appearances this far suggest he might not even be capable of finishing a general election campaign. So yeah, saying "nothing to suggest" is not really a fair or true statement.
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Ok, let me know when he isn't leading in nearly every poll. Until then, there's nothing to suggest he isn't back in to the nomination.
 
Raoul said:
Ok, let me know when he isn't leading in nearly every poll. Until then, there's nothing to suggest he isn't back in to the nomination.
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The betting markets suggest he might not be the nominee. The increasing worries about his gaffes that cause his staff to already reduce his appearances this far suggest he might not even be capable of finishing a general election campaign. The donation maps that show Bernie's domination getting most donors with Warren a definitive second suggests Biden might not have the actual support the polls imply. And the fact that Buttigieg has been steadily collecting a huge amount of money from the every wealthy neighborhood suggest the rich Dems are not so enamored with Biden as they were Hilary.

So yeah it does look like you believe the polls are infallible when you ignore every other data point except selective polling.

"Nothing to suggest" is not really a fair or true statement when what you really mean is "no establishment Dem polling that I rate that suggests...":

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ELIZABETH WARREN OVERTAKES JOE BIDEN AS FAVORITE TO WIN DEMOCRATIC PARTY'S 2020 PRIMARY: U.K. BOOKMAKER
 
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