You disagree with the polls ?
2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress
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You disagree with the polls ?
oh i had no idea, i'm much more confident of bernie's prospects now
I'm guessing Warren is making her move
Wasn't Biden leading Iowa very strongly?
Well of course.
They are all over the place.
Even the ones that show Bernie ahead. I remember seeing the Dems winning FL. I sometimes link one of two of them to pull a leg.
What I do believe is as it gets closer to the primaries, people will start paying attention.
We are still so far away.
He was averaging about a 7 point lead over the past few polls. This new one could be an outlier (similar to the one that had Buttigieg in front recently), but it's also interesting that she is leading in WI according to the recent poll there.
Roughly, based on memory:
Yougov/Economist and Changepolls are simultaneously bad for Biden and very good for Warren. Yougov has Biden very narrowly on top over Warren nationally and Bernie a distant 3rd, Changepolls consistently shows Warren leading many states and Bernie/Biden both close behind.
The others (Emerson, Morning Consult, Quinnipac, Harris/Rasmussen) are very good for Biden, nationally 30+, with Bernie some distance behind and Warren hovering at the 8-14% range (i.e. closer to 10 than 20).
Obviously there are massive issues with sampling going on right now.
Yougov/Economist and Changepolls are simultaneously bad for Biden and very good for Warren. Yougov has Biden very narrowly on top over Warren nationally and Bernie a distant 3rd, Changepolls consistently shows Warren leading many states and Bernie/Biden both close behind.
The others (Emerson, Morning Consult, Quinnipac, Harris/Rasmussen) are very good for Biden, nationally 30+, with Bernie some distance behind and Warren hovering at the 8-14% range (i.e. closer to 10 than 20).
Obviously there are massive issues with sampling going on right now.
Warren and sanders need to join forces. Warren as the VP, Sanders as the main pick. Let's go
If they joined forces before the first primary it would make sense because its about Delegate counts.
But I don't see it happening. But what matters is that they are bringing attention to Real issues unlike the nonsense the corporate candidates are talking about.
I fear it will bring Biden + another (Harris?/Pete?) together as well.
Right now the "gaffes" seem to be hurting him, and the establishment Dem resources may get divided on how to go forward:
Still literally 6 months to go before the 1st vote is cast, lots can change, etc
"Joe's brain is melting before our very eyes. Should we really be running him for president?" "For now let's try to limit the public's knowledge of Joe's brain melt until he's clinched the nomination, at which point his brain will be fully melted" "This is a good strategy."
They've tried a MeToo and the racial angle and neither have worked, so I wouldn't hold my breath that him being a gaffe machine will either.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...c-primary-is-a-whole-freaking-transit-system/
Probably some truth to that given that around 20% of those who voted Bernie in 2016 claim to support Biden now. More than 2/3s of Bernie voters in 2016 claim to support other candidates this time round.
If true, that's a very concerning number for Sanders.
In this case no one is making up anything.
Biden has serious issues. He did have a serious brain surgery in 1988
https://www.cnsnews.com/news/articl...he-had-less-50-chance-being-completely-normal
You don't mess with the brain without something happening.
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Nate Silver is anti Bernie .
I thought your description was better than his, so I tagged you in.
It's based on a couple of Emerson polls, so there's that.
It's early doors with a big field, so some preference migration is to be expected. Could be that the prodigals return to the Bernie homestead as the field dwindles.
On the other hand, if everyone who voted Bernie in 2016 were children of the Bernie revolution, he'd be polling much better than he currently is.
Wishful thinking. All polls show that most of them would vote for Biden.
Until recently, most polls were showing that Warren's voters second choice is Harris, but now it seems that they are switching to Bernie.
Bernie has (and had) a good message, but the main reason he did that well last time around is cause he was the only alternative to an unpopular woman. Now that there are more alternatives, he is not doing that great.
The trend seems to be that Biden numbers are going down, while Warren's numbers are up. It is very likely that it is gonna be between them, and I have Warren as a favorite. Bernie is a distant third, and I don't see Harris or Buttigieg getting many votes.
That's like when people wanted Obama and Clinton to join forces but with Hillary as President and Barack as VP.
Why on earth would Warren agree to that when she has the better chance of winning?
Yang at 3% ? Looks suspicious.
For the greater good
I think it’s as much that people have short attention spans and always want something new and exciting. They talked to some young former Bernie supporter about why they changed to someone else, and the reply was basically ‘I like Bernie, but I see him as a ‘16 candidate’. Ffs..
Sort of reinforces the idea that there’s not enough pie space for Warren and Sanders to both be successful. He has been slipping of late at the very same time as she had been inching upwards.
Whoopee.
Thinks too much of himself.
Beto needs to call it quits . His best chance is as Senator .
I think he fancies his chances of avoiding the blame as a losing vice presidential candidate and going again in four years as a 'big hitter'.
He’s not beating Cornyn.
Good article on Biden's history, not sure if it's been posted: https://harpers.org/archive/2019/03/joe-biden-record/
Mostly stuff discussed here in bits and pieces all put together with more depth and details.
Mostly stuff discussed here in bits and pieces all put together with more depth and details.
Politics aside, is there scientific data explaining the fact conservatism and a sense of humor are mutually exclusive. I mean, really, my autistic niece is wittier than this prick. And I don't even have an autistic niece. Well I might, my family is huge, but still.
Donald calls him sleepy, ha.ha.ha.ha get it? They are asleep!!! Are you watching Master Donald?
and they run the most powerful nation in the world. HOW? Tell me, please.
Can't they just elect Louis C.K? I mean sure you he's got the #metoo stuff going on, but at least he's witty.
He wasn't able to defeat Cruz who has become quite unpopular after 2016, s sure as hell he ain't beating Cornyn.
He needs to carefully pick what he is doing next. If he loses another time, it is gonna be hard for him to be taken seriously.
Cornyn is very unpopular .Think he stands a great chance
No one should take him seriously after he answered a question about food deserts by saying he wants more farm to table restaurants. Every time I see his name I think of that and laugh.
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