Actually, the Clinton campign published an entire book full of what they were promising the American people.
I took the time to read it. Did you?
2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress
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Actually, the Clinton campign published an entire book full of what they were promising the American people.
I took the time to read it. Did you?
Unlike the previous elections, this time Israeli support to Trump is clear to everyone. This is a major asset for any US candidate.
But as I said, let's be positive. All the opposition needs to do is not to nominate someone whose political dirts can be easily exploited. I would like to be as optimistic as you are about Trump getting an easy defeat.
Yes I did, the first time I wrote that.
Oh don’t get me wrong. I’m so against having a traditional Democratic candidate. I still think Biden stumbles his way out of the lead for being a complete charlatan and we’re likely left with Bernie, Warren, and Harris who I think will appeal to the wider voting blocs with policy and charisma.
I don’t see how you think Israeli support of a candidate is some new thing.
Also, it’s not going to be easy. I just don’t see Trump’s voting bloc growing.
Okay, but how is that any different from any other election? This is a description of American politics, not a reason why Trump will win. And considering there are more people who describe themselves as Democrats than Republicans, if this were so impactful then it would in fact hurt Trump.
Every President has a large loyal core of supporters. Nixon had an approval rating in the twenties, and he was being successfully impeached (with help from his own party).
This just seems untrue. I think it's rather the opposite. The grass is always greener on the other side, and people get tired of the same old. It's also easier to make empty promises when you haven't had to break your previous empty promises the last four years. Government fatigue is a very real thing.
How is this an argument?
Israel usually supports the Republican candidate, and most American Jews still usually vote for the Democrat.
Hillary Clinton got 3 million more votes than Trump, and she was an historically unpopular candidate.
It mostly brings people who were already going to vote for Trump. For that matter, as this graph shows, there are about as many people who favour increased immigration as favour decreased immigration.
The US army usually support the Republican.
About as many Bernie-supporters voted for Hillary, as Hillary-supporters voted for Obama.
Fair enough. Let's hope this is not a replay of a "he's never going to win it".
I don't want to make it seem like I'm saying he'll definitely lose, I just think it's far too early to say he's going to win.
As long as we have the electoral college this isn't meaningful. I'd say how often it gets repeated and the context its even becoming misleading to a degree.
The entire popular vote was because of California alone.
HRC had over 4 million more votes than Trump:
HRC:
8,753,788
DJT:
4,483,810
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election_in_California
interesting stat... didnt know that
also is there any mechanism in law by which the number of electoral college votes are periodically reviewed in line with population changes etc?... or are they set in perpetuity?
Yes, they have been changed multiple times, but the changes are periodical and due to the fact that you can have states like Wyoming or Montana with 1 congressional district but 2 senators, there will always be discrepancies in intrastate voting leverage.
The census every 10 years. Thats why Republicans want the citizen question on the census that the supreme court reviewed. They want to chip away at California and maybe new york congressional delegation
bringing up the popular vote when talking about the Presidential election is pointless.
Iowa Caucus is Feb 2020.
Lots more falling flat on the face for Biden to come.
Lots more falling flat on the face for Biden to come.
Pretty good numbers considering he was just okay at the debate.
I actually think Trump has a very good chance of getting re-elected in 2020. Unless the economy just turns to complete shit. Nothing to really base this on other than a gut feeling. And the realization that democracy doesn't work when you've got a lot stupid people voting.
Decent set of figures. Biden and Buttigieg will eclipse it as they have the backing of bundlers and rich donors.
Much will depend on who the Dems run against him. Trump himself allegedly fears Biden because he will make it very difficult for him to hold on to PA, MI, WI, which would likely cut off all his paths to 270.
and you think Bernie cannot win those states?
Biden is polling better than Sanders in most swing states at the moment. That's not to say that can't change, but given the recent leak of Trump's internal polling that shows him trailing Biden by 16 points in PA and 10 in WI, it shows that Trump is correct in being more fearful of Biden than anyone else at the moment.
Thing is, Trump is already defying conventional wisdom by being an extraordinarily unpopular president with a great economy. He should have far higher approval ratings, based on past presidents. So he can't expect the economy to bail him out in 2020.
Don't you see, Raoul?! That Bernie is the one and only true champion of the people! There's no election past, present or future that he wouldn't win!
The point is if you lose by 10 or 15 you are still losing.
Its a false narrative to say one candidate has to be feared more.
Trump has been pretty dismissive of both of them.
Importantly when crunch time approaches loyalty to Trump will have to be weighed against what another candidate brings to the table. In that regards Biden brings nothing.
Trump attacks Biden and generally ignores Sanders. That should tell you where his anxieties about potential Gen opponents lie.
Sanders has all the right policies but the US simply isn't ready for him. I'd take Biden over Trump any day and think he has the best shot at beating him.
The Dems have to come behind a candidate and focus on actually winning. Ideas don't mean anything if you are sitting in opposition while your opponent destroys a lot of the things you are fighting for.
he attacks them both whenever I have seen him.
That so called poll leak which you refer to is a point.
What I am talking about is the substance of what each candidate brings to the table.
I saw another report that Trump fears Harris the most.
You cant trust anything she says. It's all for show.
Isn't that what the primary process is for
Tell the Bernie Bros and the guy who saying he would only vote for Sanders or Warren that.
Looking forward to the next debate and Creepy Joe trying to get even.
He was still the betting favorite last I heard, but if you take a closer look at the numbers in the few states that actually matter a path to electoral victory looks unlikely.
And @Raoul is right when he says Biden smokes Donald in some of these critical states (somewhat unfortunately...).
Are the Bernie Bros committed to not voting for any other candidate?
If so, a bit weird, but that is their right. No one is owed a vote.
Must be great having the ability to completely forget 2016.
From earlier this year
Plus I've still got most of my hair, move over Nate your nerd numbers are useless.
Biden isn't close to Clinton in unpopularity and if the idiots that stayed home because they they refused to vote for Clinton or Trump had voted for the lesser of the two evils the world would be a better place
Well I'm sure Joe Biden is sure going to get these people out.
You've literally admitted there is a candidate with better policies and yet for bizarre reasons such as - America ''not being ready''(Quick reminder the Earth is dying because of climate change) and Biden having a better chance of beating Trump(Although polling shows Bernie beating Trump in similar numbers to Biden. But.....none of this fecking matters because everyone thought Hilary was going to beat Trump, predicting electability is useless.) you've decided to go against the best candidate.
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