2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress

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Zarlak said:
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:lol:
 


Remains to be seen whether the movement is permanent. Does feel like it's filtering down to those four being the main candidates.
 
Ubik said:


Remains to be seen whether the movement is permanent. Does feel like it's filtering down to those four being the main candidates.
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It probably isn’t. Post debate sentiment generally fades and asking the question immediately after a debate when people are still fixating on random one liners at the debate can be perilous. If in a month Harris does what Warren did over the past month (double her numbers) then there may be a trend.
 
Raoul said:
It probably isn’t. Post debate sentiment generally fades and asking the question immediately after a debate when people are still fixating on random one liners at the debate can be perilous. If in a month Harris does what Warren did over the past month (double her numbers) then there may be a trend.
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I don't know man, I think you're underestimating the effect of primary debates. If this had been a Presidential debate, I'd agree completely, but primary debates are definitely a lot more impactful.

Of course, that doesn't mean it's quite as impactful as that poll. The CNN poll is a bit of an outlier, though other polls also show a decline for Biden, a small decline for Bernie, and gains for Warren and Harris.
 
The polls are unimportant.
We all laughed at Biden's performance.
But it goes to the heart of the matter.

He does not believe in anything.

To state the obvious at the end merely emphasized this.

Words without substance do not resonate, unless they confirm beliefs we hold, no matter the nature.
 
nimic said:
I don't know man, I think you're underestimating the effect of primary debates. If this had been a Presidential debate, I'd agree completely, but primary debates are definitely a lot more impactful.

Of course, that doesn't mean it's quite as impactful as that poll. The CNN poll is a bit of an outlier, though other polls also show a decline for Biden, a small decline for Bernie, and gains for Warren and Harris.
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I’m sure Biden will decline but I wouldn’t put much stock into this poll since it was done immediately after the debates and is susceptible to how people felt at that time. If Harris is to be taken seriously then she will need the sort of longer term trajectory that Warren has been on over the past month. Also, I’m pretty sure Harris will have a target on her back in the next debate from both progressives and a few moderates.
 
She attacked Biden from the left. It will be interesting to see her attached from the left. Biden was the wrong man to try it at the wrong time. If/when Bernie makes that move he’s going to have to pick his spot I think because she is a good speaker.

Right now I just want to see Warren and Biden on the same stage.
 
Reality starting to bite for some of the candidates who are polling at 0%.

 
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langster said:
Wow. Care to elaborate?
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Several reasons:
1 - The bi-polarization of US political system: most people support political parties even if the opposition candidate brings good proposals
2 - He has a large loyal core of supporters. Add that to the huge percentage of indecisive people...
3 - The polls in the end of term are always negative. It always go up as soon as campaign starts and they will show "the good things this administration brought" and a lot of people will change their minds quite easily. The idea of "continuing the project" is appealing to humans, who are highly adverse to changes.
4 - Remember the "Bush(s) will never get reelected"? Look at how that worked out.
5 - External influence: Israel will offer full support for Trump reelection. This is worth millions of american votes.
6 - The democrat candidates need to be very very good. Sanders has expired, and the majority of the other choices are viewed as being part of the "system". Trump won last elections by being an anti-system symbol. Biden will be seen as "part of an old problem", pretty much like Hilary did.
7 - The war against illegal immigrants: doesn't matter how many people drown / die crossing the border, this brings him a lot of votes into the table.
8 - Military support: the US army strongly supports Trump.
9 - The digital army: I know that Trump probably doesn't even know how social media warfare tactics work, but he sure had hired a team that knows what they are doing, as you can check by social networks. And they also use this strategy to influence the democrat supporters whose favorite candidate lost in the primary elections and are frustrated.

I could be here all day. I can´t see a turn of events in the near future. Unless the democrats bring the Midwest back home, I guess.
 
André Dominguez said:
Several reasons:
1 - The bi-polarization of US political system: most people support political parties even if the opposition candidate brings good proposals
2 - He has a large loyal core of supporters. Add that to the huge percentage of indecisive people...
3 - The polls in the end of term are always negative. It always go up as soon as campaign starts and they will show "the good things this administration brought" and a lot of people will change their minds quite easily. The idea of "continuing the project" is appealing to humans, who are highly adverse to changes.
4 - Remember the "Bush(s) will never get reelected"? Look at how that worked out.
5 - External influence: Israel will offer full support for Trump reelection. This is worth millions of american votes.
6 - The democrat candidates need to be very very good. Sanders has expired, and the majority of the other choices are viewed as being part of the "system". Trump won last elections by being an anti-system symbol. Biden will be seen as "part of an old problem", pretty much like Hilary did.
7 - The war against illegal immigrants: doesn't matter how many people drown / die crossing the border, this brings him a lot of votes into the table.
8 - Military support: the US army strongly supports Trump.
9 - The digital army: I know that Trump probably doesn't even know how social media warfare tactics work, but he sure had hired a team that knows what they are doing, as you can check by social networks. And they also use this strategy to influence the democrat supporters whose favorite candidate lost in the primary elections and are frustrated.

I could be here all day. I can´t see a turn of events in the near future. Unless the democrats bring the Midwest back home, I guess.
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There are soooo many voters especially in the midwest who became disillusioned with Trump. He already lost the popular vote by 3M to an extremely unpopular Hillary and barely squeaked a victory in the battleground states by less than 80,000 votes in those midwestern states + Pennsylvania. You’re also discounting the fact that so many more Democratic voters will be galvanized to vote against him because of his behavior over the past four years, which has exceeded all of our expectations since 2016. Look at 2018 to have any indication. Lastly, you can’t use any other past presidential election as a barometer because our political climate right now is unprecedented.
 
Florida Man said:
There are soooo many voters especially in the midwest who became disillusioned with Trump. He already lost the popular vote by 3M to an extremely unpopular Hillary and barely squeaked a victory in the battleground states by less than 80,000 votes in those midwestern states + Pennsylvania. You’re also discounting the fact that so many more Democratic voters will be galvanized to vote against him because of his behavior over the past four years, which has exceeded all of our expectations since 2016. Look at 2018 to have any indication. Lastly, you can’t use any other past presidential election as a barometer because our political climate right now is unprecedented.
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Unlike 2018, Trump is on the ticket.
While I agree people are angry. Many people are worried about the false narratives on immigration.
Biden's strength in the Rust belt will be tested because he needs to bring a positive message on immigration being a Democrat.
This wont go down well with those who are concerned about those "Mexicans rushing into the US with their drugs and crimes."
 
Florida Man said:
There are soooo many voters especially in the midwest who became disillusioned with Trump. He already lost the popular vote by 3M to an extremely unpopular Hillary and barely squeaked a victory in the battleground states by less than 80,000 votes in those midwestern states + Pennsylvania. You’re also discounting the fact that so many more Democratic voters will be galvanized to vote against him because of his behavior over the past four years, which has exceeded all of our expectations since 2016. Look at 2018 to have any indication. Lastly, you can’t use any other past presidential election as a barometer because our political climate right now is unprecedented.
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That was the problem last time: democrats can't rely on a "traditional" candidate anymore. Anyone who can be associated to the "system" is at high risk of being shredded by the digital troll army that Trump has at his disposal, just by digging old political dirts of that candidate.

Democrats are galvanized now. As soon as their favorite candidate don't get past the primary elections, a lot of those democrats will become frustrated and preyed. The political climate might be kind of "unique", but I really can't see a turn of events unless the opposition gives a solid charismatic candidate.

But let's hope that for once the polls are really accurate and hope for the american people to show that discontent.
 
André Dominguez said:
1 - The bi-polarization of US political system: most people support political parties even if the opposition candidate brings good proposals
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Hillary won the popular vote without good proposals.
André Dominguez said:
2 - He has a large loyal core of supporters. Add that to the huge percentage of indecisive people...
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He’s maxed out his base. It’s as big as it is going to get.
André Dominguez said:
3 - The polls in the end of term are always negative. It always go up as soon as campaign starts and they will show "the good things this administration brought" and a lot of people will change their minds quite easily. The idea of "continuing the project" is appealing to humans, who are highly adverse to changes.
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Except he hasn’t got any major successful “projects” to point to other than things his base will like, and they’re already baked in.
André Dominguez said:
4 - Remember the "Bush(s) will never get reelected"? Look at how that worked out.
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As previously stated.
André Dominguez said:
5 - External influence: Israel will offer full support for Trump reelection. This is worth millions of american votes.
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Among conservative evangelicals, and they’re already included in his base.
André Dominguez said:
6 - The democrat candidates need to be very very good. Sanders has expired, and the majority of the other choices are viewed as being part of the "system". Trump won last elections by being an anti-system symbol. Biden will be seen as "part of an old problem", pretty much like Hilary did.
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You’re banking a lot on Biden winning the nomination.
André Dominguez said:
7 - The war against illegal immigrants: doesn't matter how many people drown / die crossing the border, this brings him a lot of votes into the table.
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Votes that are already part of his base, not new votes.
André Dominguez said:
8 - Military support: the US army strongly supports Trump.
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Votes that are already part of his base and not that large of a voting bloc.
André Dominguez said:
9 - The digital army: I know that Trump probably doesn't even know how social media warfare tactics work, but he sure had hired a team that knows what they are doing, as you can check by social networks. And they also use this strategy to influence the democrat supporters whose favorite candidate lost in the primary elections and are frustrated.
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And because of the last election, this will be a major focal point in 2020.
 
Carolina Red said:
Hillary won the popular vote without good proposals.

He’s maxed out his base. It’s as big as it is going to get.

Except he hasn’t got any major successful “projects” to point to other than things his base will like, and they’re already baked in.

As previously stated.

Among conservative evangelicals, and they’re already included in his base.

You’re banking a lot on Biden winning the nomination.

Votes that are already part of his base, not new votes.

Votes that are already part of his base and not that large of a voting bloc.

And because of the last election, this will be a major focal point in 2020.
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He might not have maxed out. The whole Israel support comes into the game atm, and that without counting with the undecided. The sucessful "projects" will be just some charts and data showing "how good things improved".

And being a major focal point will not mean as much as expected: most people will not confirm if news/rumors are fake: they will basically share and easily becomes viral
 
André Dominguez said:
He might not have maxed out. The whole Israel support comes into the game atm, and that without counting with the undecided. The sucessful "projects" will be just some charts and data showing "how good things improved".

And being a major focal point will not mean as much as expected: most people will not confirm if news/rumors are fake: they will basically share and easily becomes viral
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Who is Israel gonna get to vote Trump that didn’t already? It’s not like Israel is some new found GOP vote getter.
 
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