Women and immigrants happen to live in each of these states, so of course they matter tremendously. There aren't enough white male, blue collar construction workers and coal miners available to get him reelected, so he needs (particularly) white women - the group that is currently leaving him.
2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress
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Women and immigrants happen to live in each of these states, so of course they matter tremendously. There aren't enough white male, blue collar construction workers and coal miners available to get him reelected, so he needs (particularly) white women - the group that is currently leaving him.
I don't think Dems have made any significant headway in any of the Swing States. Is Bernie really popular in any of the swing states?
Bernie was more popular than Hilary in the primaries in a lot of Rust Belt states that Trump narrowly won.
Trumps favorable/unfavorable rating was 37.5% on election night. It is hovering around 40% today. With tax cuts filtering through into paychecks he/GOP will probably consolidate that position. Trump defies the odds on a regular basis. We just can't presume a slam dunk win for anyone that stands against him in 2020.
You think his approval rating is so low and there hasn’t been 40k votes swung.
His numbers will always hover between the low to mid 30s and low to mid 40s. The perfect storm of circumstances that led to him getting elected has long since evaporated and the core demographics that he needs to win an election are no longer there right now.
Saunder has not got a chance why anyone wants him to run against Trump is beyond me.
He may be the best canidate but that counts for little .Biden has a better chance but still would be a long shot .
Trump sadly is still loved by millions and millions of idiots and they will all go out and vote for him again .
The only chance the Democrats have is opting for someone who will appeal to more than just the normal Democrat voters .
Onama appealed to more than Democrat voters Hilliary did not and Saunders and Biden do not either.
He may be the best canidate but that counts for little .Biden has a better chance but still would be a long shot .
Trump sadly is still loved by millions and millions of idiots and they will all go out and vote for him again .
The only chance the Democrats have is opting for someone who will appeal to more than just the normal Democrat voters .
Onama appealed to more than Democrat voters Hilliary did not and Saunders and Biden do not either.
Didn't realize .biden is now a URL suffix.
Gotta house all those memes somewhere.
The difference is that Trump will have probably persuaded a lot of inactive people who didn't bother their arses in 2016 to get out and vote. Hence why we've seen certain swings towards the Dems in elections since then.
The Arizona and Nevada Senate Elections in Nov will be crucial imo. If the Dems flip both, it's be a hard hit for Trump going into 2020 without senate majority.
Saunder and Onama
Are you trying to be like a football journalist and cover all of your bases so if one of these states does flip, then you can be like I told you so!
Nope. I just choose not to give weight to simplistic "Oh, the good people of USA will rise up and kick Trump out" esque comments. It has proven to be false before and is likely to hold no validity anymore.
Despite being a more overt scumbag than Trump, Moore lost a very close election 48 top 50 in Alabama. If women didn't leave him after pussy grabbing comments, I doubt we're going to see a revolution now.
Swing States: Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio.
Where Dems can realistically flip a senate seat: Arizona and Nevada.
For me, the status of above directly determine whether Trump will win or not. Wisconsin and Michigan are swinging the other way. Pennsylvania and Florida are still Trumps. Ohio can go either way. Losing senate majority will be another material big blow to his agenda. So you I'd rather focus on these than join the media wank-athon bandwagon.
I also find it laughable that so many here have already written him off, despite no knowing who the opposition is. The same falsely optimistic trend that Trump will implode still persists despite events happening otherwise.
True, although flipping both will be very difficult. If Kelli Ward somehow becomes the nominee in AZ then the Dems definitely have a chance. If Martha McSally is the R nominee then not so much.
Being a neutral, I don't have any emotional investment in this elections. It's more on interest and curiosity. I personally don't like Trump and think he's harmful to both US and World at large. However it's still baffling to me that the Dems have not stepped up their game since the defeat. I recall a manifesto/theme that the Dems came out with post the defeat sometime last last year. Such a yawn worthy document probably written by a bored university kid.
There's nothing to step up. Trump is President, he's being formally investigated, and everything else will unwind accordingly.
You have Pennsylvania as safer Trump than Ohio? Based on what?
IMO they are still not listening to the people like Michael Moore and George Lakoff who offered plenty of insight and offered their help only to be turned out by people (DNC leadership and Clintons) even after they are proven wrong.
How they have not done anything? They are flipping seats all over the country this past year. This is just one article about it:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/special-elections-so-far-point-to-a-democratic-wave-in-2018/
Don't the first Congressional elections after a new President almost always flip to the minority party?
"The party of the incumbent president tends to lose ground during midterm elections: over the past 21 midterm elections, the President's party has lost an average 30 seats in the House, and an average 4 seats in the Senate; moreover, in only two of those has the President's party gained seats in both houses."
I think the places where Democrats are flipping seats has to be paid special attention to. A prime example is Alabama where Reps have held that seat for over 25 years. They arent flipping seats just anywhere where the main election could have gone either way but in Rep strongholds.
I think Pillow makes a good point though, that even with a total scumbag like Moore, it was still only 50% to 48% so a suggestion of being wary seems like good strategic sense.
I dont think people here are suggesting its going to be a walk in the park even in 2020. All we are talking about is who will have a better shot of taking on Trump - with the likes of Biden and Sanders.
This is a good list talking about the candidates. Personally I think a half dozen of these could stand a better chance at winning than Biden or Bernie both of whom have Baggage.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/09/30/opinion/who-can-beat-trump-in-2020.html
I'd also add Adam Schiff to the list but he probably needs a little more exposure.
If McCain resigns for health reasons, that would open up the other seat for the Dems too.
I don't think any of the people mentioned in the article would fare well against Trump. The article seems to have a "let's see how many Dems we can think of" air about it. Until sentiment changes - we are in a two horse race that divides the Populist/progressives (Bernie) with the establishment/pragmatists (Biden).
The Republicans would get that seat since the Governor is a Republican and would appoint a fellow R. If McCain resigns or dies after the 2018 elections, the the Governor would appoint another R to take his place until the 2020 elections.
This really doesn't help though. It's not just about winning if the person being elected isn't helping make the changes people need. There's little point just voting someone that will be little different to say John Kasich.
Trump is an extreme exception. The Dems need to run on the policies the USA wants and needs. Universal healthcare, gun control, education, getting rid of citizens United and getting the money out of politics and of course the economy. They have to wise up on immigration too as they cannot be seen to promote open borders and they have to get the message out so people can't attack them on these issues anymore.
Yes any Dem is better than Trump at the moment, but in the grand scheme of things they have to start looking at the bigger picture. Everyone is banging on about Joe Kennedy but some of his main donors are huge medical and pharmaceutical companies. Do you think he will really vote for UHC?
Dem voters need to wise up and the party needs to toughen up.
Also Bernie is crushing Trump in the head to head polls. It seems insane people are saying he couldn't win.
Uh Bernie and Biden were the first two people mentioned
But jokes aside, its too early to really tell at this point. Ideally the Democrat party would want a candidate that is a little more inclusive than either Bernie or Biden, someone more capable of unifying the factions and invigorating the base. I'd say its only 2018 so its certainly possible one of the lesser knowns could emerge and shoot above the two B's. Will have to really see how things develop and IMO hopefully the DNC and democrat elites don't decide to preselect Bernie and Biden by manipulating where the money goes.
There are crucial demos he’s losing ground in that would swing an electoral vote. I’ll link the relevant article if I find it; knowing me it was 538 or The Atlantic.
Uh Bernie and Biden were the first two people mentioned
But jokes aside, its too early to really tell at this point. Ideally the Democrat party would want a candidate that is a little more inclusive than either Bernie or Biden, someone more capable of unifying the factions and invigorating the base. I'd say its only 2018 so its certainly possible one of the lesser knowns could emerge and shoot above the two B's. Will have to really see how things develop and IMO hopefully the DNC and democrat elites don't decide to preselect Bernie and Biden by manipulating where the money goes.
I've been a proponent of Gavin Newsom running for a quite a while. He should be elected Governor this year, is of a ripe Presidential age and would most importantly, unite elements of the populist and establishmentarian sides into one cohesive voting block. He just proposed single payer for the State of CA as well, so its likely he would do the same at a national level if he runs.
White women is definitely one of the demos. There was something on CNN or MSNBC about it recently.
I don't disagree. Although I'd point out that while winning without the follow through is hollow, having the policies but not winning is ineffective as well.
So you need a candidate that can win and follow through on the policy. So:
Definitely an interesting prospect. Seems a bit early from Governor in 2018 to Pres run in 2020 but in today's world who knows. If he can get a major accomplishment like that under his belt in his first year as Gov. that would probably be enough to push nationally. I think he is pretty unknown outside California though no?
Yes, he's fairly unknown in a similar way that Obama was when he moved from State Senator to the U.S. Senate. Same age as well. Obviously, being elected to run the 6th biggest economy in the world is a pretty good thing to have on one's resume.
Newsom has had some scandals in the past, which normally would hamper a politician if they were to run for president.
Though i suppose many voters have become a bit desensitised due to the Trump scandals, so maybe voters wont pay much attention on things like affairs in future elections.
Though i suppose many voters have become a bit desensitised due to the Trump scandals, so maybe voters wont pay much attention on things like affairs in future elections.
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What baggage does Bernie have?
As for the rest of the candidates, none of them are strong enough to beat either Bernie or Biden if they decide to run.
I hope neither Bernie nor Biden runs. But they should nominate someone who represents them, younger and fresh blood.
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