If that happens then that would definitely affect Biden, although I'm not sure all three would rise at the same time.
2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress
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If that happens then that would definitely affect Biden, although I'm not sure all three would rise at the same time.
It's funny to look back at some of the comments in the 2016 thread.
"Marine 4 Star General about to take Trump to task!"
""Have you ever read the Constitution? Have you ever been to Arlington? You'll see all faiths... you have sacrificed nothing"
This guy is destroying him."
"Love it...a Muslim schooling the fecker on the Constitution."
"Wow...this is incredible."
"This convention has been as perfect as any convention I've seen since the 80s. "
Probably not all three but I think one of Beto or Pete could drain Biden from the younger ages on up while Harris has the potentially to appear more stable and convincing to older voters and seniors. And of course there is the chance that Warren might even drop out by Super Tuesday if she does really poor in Iowa and the other two earliest.
I think a lot of Biden's strength is the front runner effect. His support is broad rather than deep so if he starts to tank I think it will be a self-reinforcing drop.
I remember Giuliani was the frontrunner for the GOP for ages until the elections started happening in 2008. He ended up dropping out sometime through that process. So that should tell you how much these initial polls mean jack shit. Also, let's stop judging this upcoming election based on the behaviors of past elections. This is a post-Trump world, where social media and connectivity are at unprecedented levels so nothing's the same anymore, and these expectations from old ways need to be thrown out the door.
Very true. The only other election that I see as vaguely similar is the Dems of this year v the GOP candidates in 2016 (minus Trump). The party were looking for a new voice and they got one. The Dems seem on a similar path of needing someone new in the mix.
This is why I am not counting Beto out. He maintains a low profile on old media but every day he is livestreaming and periscoping or what every day and developing this following that is fairly dedicated.
His moment passed, I think. It doesn't matter how dedicated his following when it's shrinking.
I wouldn't count him out either. If Biden goes down after the debates, it will be Beto, Harris, and Pete who benefit and if one of them outperforms expectations they will be in the mix relatively quickly.
I think the cycles are so fast now there is time for another. I think there will be something this summer, some dual moment in some state or some debate night where Biden either solidifies his support for real or one of those three (or potentially Warren if she is around) makes a huge surge. Every campaign is going to be trying to create such a moment but I think there will be something natural this summer that really starts to make the race concrete and less abstract.
One of the few policy roll outs from the Biden campaign and they've managed to screw it up.
I do think there's a decent chance Biden will eventually start to fatigue and potentially drop down despite being favourite, and I think he'd be a self-evidently terrible choice for the nominee at this point, but I do think there's a fair bit of confirmation bias going on here wherein people who don't want Biden to be the nominee are forming arguments against him eventually winning the race on the basis of every small eventuality which may lead to him losing, without applying the same pessimism to other candidates.
As I say there's a decent chance he won't last the distance but as it stands he's undoubtedly the favourite. Even if he struggles in the long-term it seems he's past the point of a catastrophic early plummet like Jeb in 2016 and it's clear his role as VP during the Obama era stands him in somewhat decent stead with a lot of voters.
As I say there's a decent chance he won't last the distance but as it stands he's undoubtedly the favourite. Even if he struggles in the long-term it seems he's past the point of a catastrophic early plummet like Jeb in 2016 and it's clear his role as VP during the Obama era stands him in somewhat decent stead with a lot of voters.
Jeb was still top 3 at this time 4 years ago, he also never polled past 12%.
whoops
the olds are at it again
Also good amount of Gen X people as well(I always knew they were awful.)
Still for 19% of under 45 year olds to want Biden and only 7% to favour Warren isn't great.
This might be a tight primary and Biden's support will falter and Warren's get stronger once the debates begin.
My worry is if there is surge in Warren support it will come out of Bernies percentage and even if Biden numbers do start dropping they can be bumped back up when candidates likes Harris , Buttigieg , O'Rourke drop out.
He's too conservative for the national party.
It almost always coalesces into a fight between a centrist candidate and a left field candidate. I don't see a scenario where Harris and Sanders are the last two left standing unless Biden's gaffes begin to hurt him seriously.
Oh maybe I didn't make it clear, I think the last two will be Biden and Sanders but the issue for the Sanders is that when someone like Buttigieg drops out his voters will mostly go towards Biden.
It’s very likely that Warren and Sanders will have to share most progressive votes deep into primary season which means Bernie will almost certainly be deprived of the sort of broad support he had in 16 when it was only him and Hillary who were the viable choices. Biden won’t benefit from the others dropping out since they, like Warren, will remain in the race deep into the primaries, so by the time each of them drop out (assuming they don’t rise and windup the nominee) it will be too late for either Sanders or Biden to benefit from it since most primaries would already be done.
Brokered convention would be fun.
Will they though? Isn’t Buttigieg picking up a lot of young voters who might not be natural Biden fits?
Yeah I can Warren being a issue if Bernie wants to win the nomination. As for the rest I'm not so sure, I can see Harris saying in the long way but Buttigeig and the tables guy will drop out with the slightest pressure from the party.
From the polling I've seen Buttigieg isn't going great with young voters
https://edition.cnn.com/2019/05/25/politics/seniors-for-pete-buttigieg/index.html
Interesting and not at all what I expected. Thanks for the link.
This is how I think Bernie wins the primary and election. Turning out the liberal and progressive non-voters in the Democrat party by highlighting the link between income->voter participation->politicians serving the interests of the elite that vote much more
This is how I think Bernie wins the primary and election. Turning out the liberal and progressive non-voters in the Democrat party by highlighting the link between income->voter participation->politicians serving the interests of the elite that vote much more
Question is, how does he reach people who are disengaged from politics?
Joe Biden Makes It Clear He Still Opposes Federal Funding For Abortion
After he told a voter otherwise, his campaign says he’s only “open” to repealing the Hyde Amendment if circumstances change.
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/biden-hyde-amendment-abortion-medicaid_n_5cf7e72fe4b067df5ca1e396
After he told a voter otherwise, his campaign says he’s only “open” to repealing the Hyde Amendment if circumstances change.
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/biden-hyde-amendment-abortion-medicaid_n_5cf7e72fe4b067df5ca1e396
Quite a day Biden is having.
The amount of flat lies that are thrown at Bernie 24*7 is astounding. This one caught my eye because it's so blatantly off.
Vote Biden, get a Republican.
Interesting numbers, but I would probably wait until after the first couple of debates before taking any of them seriously. Good chance a candidate or two will rise while another one or two will crumble in the coming months.
Bernie Warren 2020
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