2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress

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SirAF said:
AP’s reasoning for calling it for Biden:

«With 80% of the expected vote counted, Biden was ahead by 5 percentage points, with a roughly 130,000-vote lead over Trump with about 2.6 million ballots counted. The remaining ballots left to be counted, including mail-in votes in Maricopa County, where Biden performed strongly, were not enough for Trump to catch up to the former vice president.»
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Sounds reasonable but I'm still bricking it. Need an O'Shea late winner.
 
11101 said:
I know how it works.

Hedge funds and the like do conduct their own exit polls, but they're betting on markets not Betfair. The individuals who work there are playing around on Betfair with their own money because they're good enough to lock in profit by betting and laying off as the price moves. But their own money is still millions at a time, i have seen it with my own eyes and even done it a little. They know how to manipulate the price in their favour.

Probably the gambling syndicate does similar. But they don't care about the end result either, just which way the price might go in the next 20 minutes or so.
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So you are now agreeing with me.

Brilliant.
 
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Organic Potatoes said:
No, the right wing is sabotaging everything.

Oh wait, sorry, thought I was in the match day thread.
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MrMarcello said:
Also, IRT Arizona, if the 86% total is correct for Maricopa, that's about 1.638M votes to date. That would leave only about 267K remaining. If that number holds then Trump would need north of 70% of remaining votes to get near/above Biden's lead there.
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Going back on point - seemingly these votes to be counted are within last 1/2 days and if you believe trends these votes favour republicans as democrats put their votes in early
 
bazalini said:
So you are now agreeing with me.

Brilliant. I'll disagree with you as regards hedge fund managers using Betfair - but fron 2016 it came out it was their own money and an ego thing.
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You are saying the gambling markets are predicting the result. They're not, just the next half an hour's sentiment.

Hedge funds managers do go on Betfair - but with their own money i.e still millions. I did it a bit myself in the past when i worked at a trading house.
 
calodo2003 said:
Don’t disagree, just don’t think DNC speakers would have meant that much at all.

Need to stop looking at Latinos as a monolithic bloc of voters, different diasporas care about different things in this country.
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I think Ruben Gallego is spot on, don't refer to them as "latinx" or whatever and engage with them 365 days of the year. The Dems can definitely make the ground back with Hispanics, they just have to invest the time (more than even the money although that helps too).
 
As if this rollercoaster hasn't been enough.. why the feck did I bother to watch that trash game.
 
Dudu said:
As if this rollercoaster hasn't been enough.. why the feck did I bother to watch that trash game.
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I have never been so thankful that the games are behind a paywall here in the US. No temptation.
 
Out for dinner now, can anyone give me a summary on PA?
 
Massive Spanner said:
You scared me.

Michigan is done anyway. They'll call it before the end of today.
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Yeah that's what I thought and then for a couple of minutes Politico's map showed it at only a 15k difference and I proceeded to nearly shit myself. But now it looks safe again.
 
muller said:
It’s really tight if Biden will get enough. Looking 60/40 he won’t but 81% vote counted and 400k to make up
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Na the odds are better than 40/60 for Biden to win, he probably should be considered a slight favorite at this moment in time considering the analysis of the vote already in + outstanding vote split.
 
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