Surely we're due a result or 2?
2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress
- Thread starter Raoul
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Right idea but wrong understanding.
Hedge fund guys and traders do use Betfair for their own punting on election days, but they're just taking advantage of sentiment swings. They don't give a shit about the end result.
Just an observation - earlier comments on the commentary and tweets were less equivocal.
This is the only time it's been true as Wisonsin has been called and Michigan is going to Biden as well.
Highly D.
Probably a side discussion but thoughts on how the other prospective Dem. nominees would have faired in this election? Biden's argument was that he was the best choice to beat Trump. Was he right?
Every cloud.
Meh, that's like a bad day at the craps table for him. He won't care if the end result is still a Trump defeat.
Probably worse, especially if occurrences like Latinos thinking the Dem party was too far left are true. Imagine how they would have felt if it was Bernie? Far more people would have felt this as well.
So Biden confirmed WI
Most remaining votes are from Maricopa county which is GOP stronghold.
Perfect, love that D.
In all seriousness, I've been to AZ a few times and really like the place, so glad it's seeing the light.
Why make the effort to argue on PA when MI, WI, NV and AZ all lead to a Biden victory?
Feck, that's scary. Trump would need to take about 58% of that 600K number to take the lead. Is that doable?
Trying to stop counting on MI 
That is not my point.
My point is that there are people who get info before media - exactly like markets and move them.
Same goes in football, horse racing and x-factor betting.
The 500 billion dollars on it is not from Joe in Bristol with his £5. If people don't know what way firms use Betfair - read up on it.
I'll post a thread in it next week. Know one Croatia gambling syndicate who has a team of 10 working on this election.
Because people are starting to get worried about NV/AZ it seems. Paranoia has been the theme of the past 24 hours.
Because 8k votes is the difference in Nevada.
Playing to the electorate in that state since the republicans there have already signaled some intent to not validate any close result for Biden.
Basically some obfuscation.
No clue. The fact AP called it and no one is really talking about it, is calming. But these mail in results are so hard to predict. The maths works for Trump, but I just don’t know the makeup of the ballots.
8K still wins an election.
I wouldn't worry about NV personally.
oh well done sir
But there's around 120k votes left to count.
Biden has a 99K lead there at the moment. Is the thought Trump will chip away with the remaining count?
What current outstanding state is due up next to report something?
My thinking too. Given the already high turnout, I don't see where the upside would have been with Sanders.
The idea that the Dems. might actually have got something right disturbs me though.
So it easily could be more than 8K. The votes will come mostly from Clark County.
No, the right wing is sabotaging everything.
Oh wait, sorry, thought I was in the match day thread.
Loopholes and whatever may exist to subvert the process and throw out a disproportionate number of legitimate votes for Biden.
Never thought I'd see a Trump-AZ comparison! I wonder what people in Alkmaar are like. (Or al-Kmaar as some Arabic news outlet had it once.) If it's anything like Volendam, then you're making a lot of sense. I'm assuming that AZ don't really have fans outside their area, of course.
Trump is not unlike AZ, they're good at giving away a lead and moan about it.
I've been talking about the Latino vote issues for months here. Unlike 2016, I don't think anyone can definitively say that "Bernie would have won" this time.
But.
That was the one group he consistenntly overperformed with in the primaries, in many different states. And yes, Cubans hated him. But that's in one state, and that state never going to him anyway. Bernie's Latino outreach guy had also been raising the alarm on twitter for months, saying there was no coherent campaign. Canvassing and stuff like that is known to increase turnout. I believe candidate Bernie would have had more than zero Latino speakers at the DNC, which can't hurt.
Also, IRT Arizona, if the 86% total is correct for Maricopa, that's about 1.638M votes to date. That would leave only about 267K remaining. If that number holds then Trump would need north of 70% of remaining votes to get near/above Biden's lead there.
I know how it works.
Hedge funds and the like do conduct their own exit polls, but they're betting on markets not Betfair. The individuals who work there are playing around on Betfair with their own money because they're good enough to lock in profit by betting and laying off as the price moves. But their own money is still millions at a time, i have seen it with my own eyes and did it myself in 2008. They know how to manipulate the price in their favour.
Probably the gambling syndicate does similar. But they don't care about the end result either, just which way the price might go in the next 20 minutes or so.
AP’s reasoning for calling it for Biden:
«With 80% of the expected vote counted, Biden was ahead by 5 percentage points, with a roughly 130,000-vote lead over Trump with about 2.6 million ballots counted. The remaining ballots left to be counted, including mail-in votes in Maricopa County, where Biden performed strongly, were not enough for Trump to catch up to the former vice president.»
Don’t disagree, just don’t think DNC speakers would have meant that much at all.
Need to stop looking at Latinos as a monolithic bloc of voters, different diasporas care about different things in this country.
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