2018 US Elections

Red Dreams said:
4 weeks is a long time.

All the Dems need is to needle Trump.

He is mentally weak and will respond.
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Dems should be talking about healthcare and economic policies for the working class if they want to win by getting independents and non party loyalists to vote.

As a Republican I know needling Trump will only turn out our base as the D's are already at a 100 in terms of enthusiasm.

Trump is at his best when it gets dirty anyway have you learned nothing after over three years.

Bernie's economic, healthcare and anti-war platform will win if the D's shut up about all this SJW/Feminist/anti white stuff.

This goes for 2020 as well.
 
the unknown one. said:
Dems should be talking about healthcare and economic policies for the working class if they want to win by getting independents and non party loyalists to vote.

As a Republican I know needling Trump will only turn out our base as the D's are already at a 100 in terms of enthusiasm.

Trump is at his best when it gets dirty anyway have you learned nothing after over three years.

Bernie's economic, healthcare and anti-war platform will win if the D's shut up about all this SJW/Feminist/anti white stuff.

This goes for 2020 as well.
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Yes, the Dems have been notably muted on healthcare, education, etc - as in, polices people actually care about, while playing up the usual identity politics playbook. Big mistake imo, and would result in Trump getting reelected if they don't modulate a bit.
 
Red Dreams said:
here in Minnesota all the Dems have been running on Healthcare.

But this is a deep blue state.

We will do well.
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There's no national debate among Dems though - probably because the party can't agree on a particular plan (single payer v fix Obamacare).
 
No way Avenatti gets off the mark in the polls for 20. That 'porn star lawyer' will forever stick on him.
 
The Firestarter said:
No way Avenatti gets off the mark in the polls for 20. That 'porn star lawyer' will forever stick on him.
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He certainly wont resonate with Fox News viewers where the creepy porn lawyer thing resonates, but he won't need to since they aren't the voters he is going after.
 
Go on a march against Trump and his nominee only to end up not voting. Sometimes, I feel these people need shooting. Just fecking laziness.
 
Raoul said:
He certainly wont resonate with Fox News viewers where the creepy porn lawyer thing resonates, but he won't need to since they aren't the voters he is going after.
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It would be similar with independents, to a lesser extent of course.
 
the unknown one. said:
He adjusts polls slightly based upon factors he decides himself.

Nearly all polls he adjusts one or two points in Dem's direction if you observe his models closely.

This is despite national polling averages being 2 or so points off in 2016 in favour of Dems and state polls being slightly more off point than national ones in D's favour.

RCP Trump approval is always 2/3 points higher than 538's.
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What a load of shite.
 
I've been reading up on the Senate articles: basically it's insane to give it as much power as it has. There's a possibility that the GOP will win the Senate with 17% of the votes.

Obviously it was designed to ensure smaller states had some power, but in reality it is McConnells plaything, where basically the poor, lesser educated Americans get manipulated by a tiny number of extraordinarily rich, morally corrupt slimebags into giving them the keys to the country.

Do I believe the needs of North and South Dakota should be twice as important as California? F*ck no.
 
crappycraperson said:
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Raoul said:
Yes, the Dems have been notably muted on healthcare, education, etc - as in, polices people actually care about, while playing up the usual identity politics playbook. Big mistake imo, and would result in Trump getting reelected if they don't modulate a bit.
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If the failed Access Hollywood October Surprise and the Kavanaugh hearings haven't hammered that point home, I don't know what will.
 
Beachryan said:
I've been reading up on the Senate articles: basically it's insane to give it as much power as it has. There's a possibility that the GOP will win the Senate with 17% of the votes.

Obviously it was designed to ensure smaller states had some power, but in reality it is McConnells plaything, where basically the poor, lesser educated Americans get manipulated by a tiny number of extraordinarily rich, morally corrupt slimebags into giving them the keys to the country.

Do I believe the needs of North and South Dakota should be twice as important as California? F*ck no.
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That's a perfectly fine rationale for a legislative body such as the Senate, the problem is that the proportion between smallish states and big ones is heavily skewed towards the former. It should much closer.
 
the unknown one. said:
What a reasoned and articulate response, in which you have raised numerous irrefutable points.
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You don’t deserve anything more.

RCP average 2016: Clinton +3.3
538 average 2016: Clinton + 3.9
Final result: Clinton + 2.1

Ever heard of a concept called ‘Margin of Error’? Where is the ‘2 or 3 pts off’?
 
Beto is lagging behind more in NYT polls so far. I don't know if NYT polls are reliable.
 
The United said:
Beto is lagging behind more in NYT polls so far. I don't know if NYT polls are reliable.
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The NYT/Sienna poll has an A rating from 538. That said, the sentiment of the moment is probably a bit clouded by the post-Kavanaugh haze, so we may have to wait a week or two before getting a more accurate readout.
 
Raoul said:
The NYT/Sienna poll has an A rating from 538. That said, the sentiment of the moment is probably a bit clouded by the post-Kavanaugh haze, so we may have to wait a week or two before getting a more accurate readout.
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agree.

Important to remember early voting and absentee ballot voting is available in many states.

My family and I voted absentee ballot already.
 
Bredesen seems to have really tanked vs Blackburn.

Don't see how Dems can take the Senate without that seat?

Even if they win Nevada and Arizona.
 
FromTheBench said:
Bredesen seems to have really tanked vs Blackburn.

Don't see how Dems can take the Senate without that seat?

Even if they win Nevada and Arizona.
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Surprise ‘librulz’ aren’t that hot about a guy who enthusiastically endorse Kavanaugh the moment it was clear he would get through.

That was a dumbass move, which placated no one.
 
Dems can't take the Senate this time, by HAVE to take the house.
 
Raoul said:
I think we are very close to seeing some of the post Kavanaugh numbers reflected in the generic ballot. If the numbers that come out in the coming days reflect a 10 point or more lead for the Dems then that's a positive sign.
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agree.

We need to look at the individual polls next week.

I also note more and more here in Minnesota candidates pushing Health Care and the cost of the Tax cuts to Social Security and medicare.

Here Walz the Governor candidate is pushing the public option in Health Care called Minnesota Care. Expanding it so everyone can buy into it.

It is almost like Single payer.
 
Red Dreams said:
agree.

We need to look at the individual polls next week.

I also note more and more here in Minnesota candidates pushing Health Care and the cost of the Tax cuts to Social Security and medicare.

Here Walz the Governor candidate is pushing the public option in Health Care called Minnesota Care. Expanding it so everyone can buy into it.

It is almost like Single payer.
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Speaking of single payer....found this rather funny clip of Reagan preaching against the evils of "Medicare" as a gateway policy towards "socialized medicine" (ie single payer).

 
Wish those numbers would be mostly in some of the states that needs to flip in Senate races. Last time I checked Beto was 8 points behind on NYT polls.
I so want him to win in Texas this year for obvious reasons
 
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