2018 US Elections

I'm not too familiar with the economy of the Rust Belt. My understanding is Trump won those states on protectionist policies and bringing coal back. No Democrat is going to run on that platform.
His poll numbers in those areas are above the national average. As things stand, I just can't see them shifting before 2020.

His approval ratings have absolutely shit the bed in those states.
 
More evidence that universal healthcare is what Democrats need to get behind:

"Pollster Dan Cox said on Monday that voters' health-care concerns indicate they are still concerned about their finances, despite a growing economy.

"Health care continues to poll very well, and Americans are pretty concerned about it," Cox, research director at the Public Religion Research Institute, told Hill.TV's Joe Concha on "What America's Thinking.

"It's one of the reasons why these macroeconomic indicators that we're seeing aren't really helping the Republican Party and [President] Trump," he continued.

"We're seeing really, really positive marks from the national economy, but I think people are still really insecure about their finances, and health care is a big reason," he said. "

https://thehill.com/hilltv/what-ame...ys-health-care-concerns-show-voters-are-still
 
Someone like Beto o Rourke if he wins somehow this Senate seat vs lying teds shou be a good bet to run vs trump.

He'd be a good chance of carrying Texas with some consistent democratic effort in reaching out to the Latinos there.

Not sure someone like Biden is gonna beat trump with a good economy though. They need someone who presents a alternate viewpoint like a Sanders, Warren or some fresh blood to challenge trump.
 
I don't get why more people aren't rallying against your system which requires the dems to have +5% or something ridiculous in the popular vote margin just to get equal house seats. That's fecking crazy.
 
My wife was watching Beto speaking in Austin and said. "This man will one day be our President"

She said the same thing when she saw Obama speak in 2004.

It’s not an uncommon observation. He has a bright political future ahead.
 
It’s not an uncommon observation. He has a bright political future ahead.

If he wins the Senate seat somehow, wants to run for president and doesn't do anything stupid as such till 2020 then he has a great chance to follow the Obama trajectory almost.
 
This GOP strategist sounds proud.
Sure, Kavanaugh is animating white, college-educated women, but guess what? They were not voting for a Republican a month ago and they’re still not,” he explained.
 
538 has GOP 80% to win Senate.

Silvers model is somewhat Dem leaning so excellent chance Rep's increase Senate majority imo.

This Kavanaugh tactic has really backfired for the Dem's in Red States.

Even in House 538 D advantage has closed and is trending closer.

Are voters coming home or is it recent events? Hard to say with regard to the House.
 
538 has GOP 80% to win Senate.

Silvers model is somewhat Dem leaning so excellent chance Rep's increase Senate majority imo.

This Kavanaugh tactic has really backfired for the Dem's in Red States.

Even in House 538 D advantage has closed and is trending closer.

Are voters coming home or is it recent events? Hard to say with regard to the House.

The Dems completely overplayed their hand on Kavanaugh imo. They thought they could turn out their base by attempting to get him disqualified, but the spectacle only wound up waking up the GOP base, which is why we are now seeing GOP voter enthusiasm higher than ever since Trump became President. The Dems also have high voter enthusiasm but at this point there's no telling how the midterms will go. If the GOP somehow manage to hold on to the house it will be very hard to stop more Trump policies from going through in the next 2 years.
 
The Dems completely overplayed their hand on Kavanaugh imo. They thought they could turn out their base by attempting to get him disqualified, but the spectacle only wound up waking up the GOP base, which is why we are now seeing GOP voter enthusiasm higher than ever since Trump became President. The Dems also have high voter enthusiasm but at this point there's no telling how the midterms will go. If the GOP somehow manage to hold on to the house it will be very hard to stop more Trump policies from going through in the next 2 years.

True
 
The big losers here are Feinstein and her two grandstanding 2020 attention seekers - Booker and Harris.
 
The Dems completely overplayed their hand on Kavanaugh imo. They thought they could turn out their base by attempting to get him disqualified, but the spectacle only wound up waking up the GOP base, which is why we are now seeing GOP voter enthusiasm higher than ever since Trump became President. The Dems also have high voter enthusiasm but at this point there's no telling how the midterms will go. If the GOP somehow manage to hold on to the house it will be very hard to stop more Trump policies from going through in the next 2 years.

Dems inability to push Garland is biting them in the ass now.
 
The Dems completely overplayed their hand on Kavanaugh imo. They thought they could turn out their base by attempting to get him disqualified, but the spectacle only wound up waking up the GOP base, which is why we are now seeing GOP voter enthusiasm higher than ever since Trump became President. The Dems also have high voter enthusiasm but at this point there's no telling how the midterms will go. If the GOP somehow manage to hold on to the house it will be very hard to stop more Trump policies from going through in the next 2 years.

The Dems simply did their duty. You cannot do nothing when such serious allegations are brought up.
Obama and Bernie need to articulate why the Democrats need to vote.

To stop corruption, and the destruction of the entire framework of our laws.

EDIT:

Harris and Booker were never going to get the nomination in any case.
 
What basis can you possibly have to claim that on?

He adjusts polls slightly based upon factors he decides himself.

Nearly all polls he adjusts one or two points in Dem's direction if you observe his models closely.

This is despite national polling averages being 2 or so points off in 2016 in favour of Dems and state polls being slightly more off point than national ones in D's favour.

RCP Trump approval is always 2/3 points higher than 538's.
 
The Dems simply did their duty. You cannot do nothing when such serious allegations are brought up.
Obama and Bernie need to articulate why the Democrats need to vote.

To stop corruption, and the destruction of the entire framework of our laws.

Maybe so, but they definitely had a plan which was to milk the spectacle as much as possible to get him disqualified then delay until the mid terms, pray for a Dem Senate takeover, then return the favor on Garland during the next two years leading up to 2020. It backfired spectacularly since all it has done is wake up the GOP base.
 
Maybe so, but they definitely had a plan which was to milk the spectacle as much as possible to get him disqualified then delay until the mid terms, pray for a Dem Senate takeover, then return the favor on Garland during the next two years leading up to 2020. It backfired spectacularly since all it has done is wake up the GOP base.

4 weeks is a long time.

All the Dems need is to needle Trump.

He is mentally weak and will respond.
 
Do you think Avenatti has any chance or has this finished him.

He's not polling particularly well so far in hypothetical lists of 2020 contenders. Probably a bit too early to make an assessment since we don't know whether the Dems are going to go progressive, establishment, or with an outside contender (Avenatti, Bloomberg etc).
 
i think its kind of sad to look at a rapist on the supreme court in the context of midterm elections. thats far more important than who wins in november

It is, but when you see Mitch Mac saying they will nominate a SC justice again in 2020 if there is an opportunity, they will do so if they hold the Senate. As according to him, Merrick Garland scenario of lame duck president is only applicable if the Senate goes to the Dems and if R's hold the Senate, the president by definition is not lame duck. You can't compete with cynical and cunning people, if you aren't cunning yourself. It's like in Silmarillon that the other gods were noble and powerful but couldn't defeat Morgoth because Morgoth alone knew how to lie and be cunning.