2018 US Elections

An interesting offshoot of the NY primaries tomorrow we need to keep an eye on is the AG race.
I expect Cuomo will retain the governorship. But the AG nominee is expected to be a Social Democrat. Should she win the primary she will be the AG next year...and not a Cuomo person.

He will be busy trying to avoid joining his pals in prison.
 
Raoul said:
Bad news for Dems in AZ. Republicans finally have a viable candidate who is now running negative ads against the Dem (Sinema), which is starting to turn the polls towards the GOP side.

Click to expand...

Yeh they look doomed in Arizona.

They need to win texas and Tennessee and hold everywhere including Florida and Mississippi where they are currently behind
 
The good news is that some of the "Democrat" state senators who are closet Republicans are going to lose their primaries tonight and get booted out of office.
 
Nixon wiped out as expected.

Julia Salazar, who had got an amazing amount of negative press attention for such a minor race (state senate, she was the target of multiple articles from Tablet magazine, Daily Mail, and Daily Caller) has beaten an incumbent "Democrat" who used to vote with Republicans (backed by Cuomo).
Amazingly, 8 such crossover Dems have all lost their primaries!

The disappointing one for leftists should be Teachout who is a campaign finance hawk and had good polling, but got nowhere close. The other leftist endorsement is Jummane Williams whom I know nothing about, he is narrowly leading but his lead comes only from NYC and votes from the rest of the state aren't counted yet.

edit - @Fergie's gum got there first about the IDC and @Eboue about salazar
 
berbatrick said:
Nixon wiped out as expected.

Julia Salazar, who had got an amazing amount of negative press attention for such a minor race (state senate, she was the target of multiple articles from Tablet magazine, Daily Mail, and Daily Caller) has beaten an incumbent "Democrat" who used to vote with Republicans (backed by Cuomo).
Amazingly, 8 such crossover Dems have all lost their primaries!

The disappointing one for leftists should be Teachout who is a campaign finance hawk and had good polling, but got nowhere close. The other leftist endorsement is Jummane Williams whom I know nothing about, he is narrowly leading but his lead comes only from NYC and votes from the rest of the state aren't counted yet.

edit - @Fergie's gum got there first about the IDC and @Eboue about salazar
Click to expand...

thanks for nothing. delete your post
 
incumbents first
District 11: Avella - 49% | Liu - 52%

District 13: Peralta - 44% | Ramos - 56%

District 17: Felder - 61% * | Morris - 39%

District 20: Hamilton - 44% | Myrie - 56%

District 23: Savino - 67% | Robinson - 21%

District 31: Alcantara - 38% | Jackson - 57%

District 34: Klein - 47% | Biaggi - 54%

District 38: Carlucci - 31% | Goldberg - 69%

District 53: Valesky - 53% | May - 47%
Click to expand...

The incumbents are democrats who vote with republicans, despite cuomo winning enough of these shitstains might lose that republicans don't defacto run the state senate
 
Silva said:
yeah she was a bit dull and uninspiring, but it is amazing that she still lost a vote among democratic voters to someone so obviously corrupt, how the feck does new york produce so many awful politicians?
Click to expand...

IIRC Bernie got about 43 or 44% in the NY primary, which should be a benchmark for a leftist candidate. Nixon didn't get close which shows she was a poor candidate, Williams will lose but with 47 or 48, which shows he has something.
 
berbatrick said:
IIRC Bernie got about 43 or 44% in the NY primary, which should be a benchmark for a leftist candidate. Nixon didn't get close which shows she was a poor candidate, Williams will lose but with 47 or 48, which shows he has something.
Click to expand...
The margin in all the big states are all around that mark in Dem primaries, 55/60 vs 45/40. It’ll take another cycle or two before the left can take on the establishment in Democratic politics.
 
berbatrick said:
IIRC Bernie got about 43 or 44% in the NY primary, which should be a benchmark for a leftist candidate. Nixon didn't get close which shows she was a poor candidate, Williams will lose but with 47 or 48, which shows he has something.
Click to expand...
He was up against a former senator from NY tbf, local New Yorker lefties should be able to get the left vote along with some of the "I'm vapid AF so I'll just vote for the one who lived closest to me" vote
 
But in the end, Nixon did a good job in showing Cuomo that left leaning people will turn up to vote. Maybe a better candidate would have brought down Cuomo but still good results with Salazar etc. Maybe Cuomo will target 2020 and there will be another chance for a better candidate from the left.
 
Nixon would've done much better if she wasn't up against the Cuomo machine. She may have had more luck had she gone after Gillibrandt's senate seat instead.
 
InfiniteBoredom said:
The margin in all the big states are all around that mark in Dem primaries, 55/60 vs 45/40. It’ll take another cycle or two before the left can take on the establishment in Democratic politics.
Click to expand...

Ya I've said all along that primaries will be hardest in blue states.


Raoul said:
Nixon would've done much better if she wasn't up against the Cuomo machine. She may have had more luck had she gone after Gillibrandt's senate seat instead.
Click to expand...

Unfortunately Chuck Schumer is a much much bigger problem for the left than Gillibrand, and he's unremovable.
 
berbatrick said:
Ya I've said all along that primaries will be hardest in blue states.




Unfortunately Chuck Schumer is a much much bigger problem for the left than Gillibrand, and he's unremovable.
Click to expand...

Yeah that's why she should've gone after the more removable one.
 
Very disappointed with the Nixon result. Barring a few hiccups(''Socialist small business owner'')she ran a good campaign with a large amount of media courage and it also seemed voters had enough reasons to be pissed off with Cuomo. I'm not sure if the says anything about future races but it does seems left wing policy clearly isn't giving the big boost some(Basically me) thought it would.
 
Sweet Square said:
Very disappointed with the Nixon result. Barring a few hiccups(''Socialist small business owner'')she ran a good campaign with a large amount of media courage and it also seemed voters had enough reasons to be pissed off with Cuomo. I'm not sure if the says anything about future races but it does seems left wing policy clearly isn't giving the big boost some(Basically me) thought it would.
Click to expand...

I think each race is going to be different depending on the dynamics in that district or state in question. In the Nixon/Cuomo situation, the Cuomo name is massive in NY politics and a good number of people simply vote based on name recognition over specific policies.

In other places like Florida, Gillum seems to be doing fairly well by framing himself as a sort of Sanders/Clinton hybrid and Beto is of course doing very well in running neck and neck with Lyin' Ted.

The Dems that do the best in the next cycle will be of the Gillum/Beto variety - hybrid candidates who can blend progressive policies into the mainstream, and in the process pick up massive support from both progressives and independents, which is the only path to success.
 
IDC Leader Jeff Klein Stunned By Biaggi
Klein formerly led the senate's Independent Democratic Conference. The group of eight Democrats broke with their party for years to support Republican control of the chamber.
 
Raoul said:
I think each race is going to be different depending on the dynamics in that district or state in question. In the Nixon/Cuomo situation, the Cuomo name is massive in NY politics and a good number of people simply vote based on name recognition over specific policies.
Click to expand...
Saw this on twitter today

 
berbatrick said:
IDC Leader Jeff Klein Stunned By Biaggi
Klein formerly led the senate's Independent Democratic Conference. The group of eight Democrats broke with their party for years to support Republican control of the chamber.
Click to expand...

That is a good thing to take away from the night. Most of the IDC wiped out.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.