2018 US Elections

Raoul said:
the Republicans have controlled the state Senate for every year except two going al the way back to the early 90s
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thanks to.............andrew cuomo!

https://nypost.com/2014/11/10/cuomo-had-a-secret-re-election-pact-with-republicans/

The state’s most powerful Republican secretly worked for months to help Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo win re-election — in exchange for Cuomo’s promise not to aid Senate Democrats in their Long Island races, a top New York GOP leader has charged.
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Raoul said:
Well if he's as bad as you say then he will be trounced against either Nixon and/or the general election. If however he wins (as expected) then it should be interpreted as a validation that NY voters think he's the best guy for the job.
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Well if Trump is as bad as you say then he will be trounced against either Kasich and/or the general election. If however he wins then it should be interpreted as a validation that American voters think he's the best guy for the job.
 
Eboue said:
Well if Trump is as bad as you say then he will be trounced against either Kasich and/or the general election. If however he wins then it should be interpreted as a validation that American voters think he's the best guy for the job.
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Definitely. If Trump wins again then the public will have spoken and given everything that's happened over the past couple of years. it will be interpreted as a massive public rebuke of the anti-Trump forces.
 
Raoul said:
She was significantly behind him last I checked although you never know what will happen in terms of turnout, especially after what happened in Florida a couple of weeks ago.

Also, I'm not sure how it works in NY - whether she will still run in November under a different party, which would definitely give the Republican an edge and chance of catching Cuomo.

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Ah thanks. Guess we'll just have to wait and see(Have to image it will be a bit close due the media coverage Nixon got since she's started running)
 
Raoul said:
Not looking good for Heidtkamp

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Still difficult though. They need to win all seats that at the moment are considered 'lean/likely' Democrats (8 seats) in addition to all 6 toss ups. Very difficult though.

Would absolutely love it if Lying Ted actually loses his seat.
 
Revan said:
Still difficult though. They need to win all seats that at the moment are considered 'lean/likely' Democrats (8 seats) in addition to all 6 toss ups. Very difficult though.

Would absolutely love it if Lying Ted actually loses his seat.
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The Senate would be very difficult imo. The Dems could potentially pick up a couple of seats in NV, AZ, and TN - but would have to run the table by holding serve in very difficult races like MO, ND, and FL . Not impossible, but extremely unlikely.
 
ChaddyP said:


wonder how this will play out in the senate race
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He's not going lower than that imo. He's lost most of the best independents but his base is rock solid.
Didn't he win the presidency with a favourability rate <40%?
 
roseguy64 said:
Not sure what the problem with that would be other than your dislike for Republicans.
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republican policies are bad and cause untold human misery and death. and anyone who supports them is bad and should be fought at every turn. not welcomed to the resistance as some libs did to george bush. or fawned over for passing a werthers to the person sitting next to them
 
Raoul said:
The stories about it being a close race, which it apparently is.
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I get that, but it's just seems people are getting overly excited about Lyin Ted losing.

(I understand that the polls are now within margin of error)
 
Cal? said:
I get that, but it's just seems people are getting overly excited about Lyin Ted losing.

(I understand that the polls are now within margin of error)
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Its all going to depend on turnout on election day. If there is a blue wave then Beto will obviously benefit from that. Win or lose he looks to be an emerging player in national politics, which is where some of the enthusiasm is coming from.
 
Raoul said:
Its all going to depend on turnout on election day. If there is a blue wave then Beto will obviously benefit from that. Win or lose he looks to be an emerging player in national politics, which is where some of the enthusiasm is coming from.
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Fair enough, he is definitely one of the more impressive candidates in the few videos I’ve seen
 
Bad news for Dems in AZ. Republicans finally have a viable candidate who is now running negative ads against the Dem (Sinema), which is starting to turn the polls towards the GOP side.

 
Raoul said:
That seems like a massive lead but you just never know what is going to happen tomorrow. In either case, Nixon did a pretty good job of running a solid progressive campaign which will imo empower more progressives to do the same in the state and elsewhere.
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Yeah I'm expecting(Well hoping)that it will be a lot closer as Nixon has run a very good campaign.
 
Was listening to a 538 podcast on the election, and they said for Dems to win the house, they need something like 9 pts higher iin the popular vote.

The system is sooooo geared towards the GOP it's alarming they ever lose.
 
Beachryan said:
Was listening to a 538 podcast on the election, and they said for Dems to win the house, they need something like 9 pts higher iin the popular vote.

The system is sooooo geared towards the GOP it's alarming they ever lose.
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It is for now but that will change in the coming years as the demographics start to change in such an overwhelming way that even gerrymandered districts will be hard for them to win.
 
Raoul said:
That seems like a massive lead but you just never know what is going to happen tomorrow. In either case, Nixon did a pretty good job of running a solid progressive campaign which will imo empower more progressives to do the same in the state and elsewhere.
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I think that statewide NY race has a different dynamic because the Cuomos are so networked throughout every NY power structure. Cuomo can pull in the Wall Street vote and the union vote meanwhile upstate doesn't hate him.
 
oneniltothearsenal said:
I think that statewide NY race has a different dynamic because the Cuomos are so networked throughout every NY power structure. Cuomo can pull in the Wall Street vote and the union vote meanwhile upstate doesn't hate him.
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True....name recognition does have its rewards.
 
Beachryan said:
Was listening to a 538 podcast on the election, and they said for Dems to win the house, they need something like 9 pts higher iin the popular vote.

The system is sooooo geared towards the GOP it's alarming they ever lose.
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The FiveThirtyEight house model hasn't yet shown a 9 point lead (although it's at 8.9 right now), but the forecast has never gone below 70% chance for the Democrats. They definitely need a fair few points to even have a chance at winning, though.
 
Avatar said:
538 model for the senate published. 33% chance for Democrats to gain control.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/senate/?ex_cid=midterms-header
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This is going to be one those things that swings fairly quickly based on how a particular race is going. For instance, if it looks like Kirsten Sinema is not going to replace Jeff Flake in AZ, then the Dems path to 51 becomes nearly impossible as they would have to win TN, NV, and TX (running the board on those three alone would be a near miracle) plus they have to hold serve in all their other races (FL, MO, ND, WV, MN).
 
Beachryan said:
Was listening to a 538 podcast on the election, and they said for Dems to win the house, they need something like 9 pts higher iin the popular vote.

The system is sooooo geared towards the GOP it's alarming they ever lose.
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It's supposed to be much less than that

 
Raoul said:
This is going to be one those things that swings fairly quickly based on how a particular race is going. For instance, if it looks like Kirsten Sinema is not going to replace Jeff Flake in AZ, then the Dems path to 51 becomes nearly impossible as they would have to win TN, NV, and TX (running the board on those three alone would be a near miracle) plus they have to hold serve in all their other races (FL, MO, ND, WV, MN).
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The details of each poll does not match the overall conclusion.

If you see what I mean.

EDIT:

The latest 2 generic polls are in double digit leads for the Dems.
 
Red Dreams said:
The details of each poll does not match the overall conclusion.

If you see what I mean.

EDIT:

The latest 2 generic polls are in double digit leads for the Dems.
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I'm not looking a the generic ballot, I'm looking at individual races (for the Senate only). A double digit generic ballot could of course create very high turnout for Dems which could influence Senate races as well, but so far over the last week or two, there seems to be a tightening of key races the Dems would need to win in AZ and NV.
 
Raoul said:
I'm not looking a the generic ballot, I'm looking at individual races (for the Senate only). A double digit generic ballot could of course create very high turnout for Dems which could influence Senate races as well, but so far over the last week or two, there seems to be a tightening of key races the Dems would need to win in AZ and NV.
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I agree.

I think TX and ND will be the reach for the Dems though.
 
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