Can someone kindly summarise the polling views and chances of each candidate? I am terrible at understanding this stuff.
2016 US Presidential Elections | Trump Wins
- Thread starter Raoul
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Yup, seems very childlike.
This is probably the best overall summary in data terms - http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...s&contentPlacement=2&pgtype=sectionfront&_r=0
The Upshot's path feature is pretty cool, you can mess around with it and have a clear view of what's gonna transpire. I find it the most useful now as we have access to early voting data.
So basically Clinton will win?
Never, ever forget this scumbaggery when you compare Republicans and Democrats, or consider voting for the former. Yes, both are corporate stooges but there's only one side that's systematically and actively disenfranchising people from exercising their rights.
Hopefully. Trump has a 1 in 3 chance according to Nate Silver's model
The GOP's overt voter suppression never fails to disgust me.
It's tragic. A big part of Congressional support for the Civil Rights Act of 1964 were from Republicans. It got lost in the narrative due to Goldwater jumping the shark with his state's rights presidential campaign and the party's subsequent embrace of defected Dixiecrats.
Honest Abe is rolling in his grave.
The Upshot NC early vote tracking has been a good innovation too. If Nevada does prove to have been as off in the polls as predicted by Ralston, modellers are going to need to incorporate stuff like that next time out.
Election will be decided on how Michigan and Pennsylvania vote. If Dems hold, then Hillary will clear 300 for sure.
May have been posted here before, but I think it's a decent account of the parties transformation from Lincoln to Trump.
Do people think that if the Koch's had put their full support and ground game behind Trump it would have made much difference to his numbers?
I don't think so. Trump has pretty much hit his ceiling in the primary and has been there ever since.
it was a headline that said 'Mop secret' or something and about how Clinton's maid had handled confidential documents I think.
What's the House likely looking like at the moment?
Really says something about your party that the only way you can win is by having less people vote.
So still a GOP majority?
Yep.
I guess it fits with the campaign having to keep Trump off twitter. They think they have a better chance by hiding his personality.
Yes, they need 30 for the house.
Yep. GOP lead 246-186
That was always the case. Dems need a 30-seat wave to flip the House.
Yeah, despite a Dem popular vote win in that scenario. Such is the effect of genuine vote rigging.
Cheers fellas. So a Dem House is a bit of a pipe dream then.
They have a 60 seat majority.
Silver tap dancing after his model showed NV as a narrow Trump lean ....
Were his NV polls consistent with others?
That's actually poor reporting. The 73k vote lead is only in Clark County (Vegas). Statewide lead is a more modest 46k.
Technicalities, but still..
Technicalities, but still..
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/senate-election-forecast.html
Bit more positive view of Dems winning the Senate-even if it's a 50 + VP situation
Bit more positive view of Dems winning the Senate-even if it's a 50 + VP situation
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