2016 US Presidential Elections | Trump Wins

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Avatar said:
Nate has it at just 3.8. Why are we not having enough late quality polls this year?!! Only one in the last week and had Clinton at +4
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Slashed newsroom budget, increasing difficulty+cost for polling due to nonresponse rate, popularity of data aggregators like 538 itself, which decreases the incentive to do polls, since people aren't paying the same attention.
 
Avatar said:
Nate's model is screwing us up I assume. He still has NV going to Trump!!
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His model only factors in public polls. It doesn't factor in data such as Ralston's in NV, where the Dems appear to have built up a massive vote lead due to heavy hispanic EV turnout. At this point 4-5 days out, models that focus solely on polling tend to decohere due to the massive amounts of early voting.
 
Avatar said:
Nate's model is screwing us up I assume. He still has NV going to Trump!!
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Interested to see how he calls it on election eve, if the model still has Trump up slightly. Possibly just say it's a true tossup and that Dems could be favoured based on EV, similar to Florida in 2012.
 
Raoul said:
Trump's campaign probably thinks they have a shot in MI due to no early voting, so if they can close the gap in the final days they may feel they have a chance of nicking it on the 8th.
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Ahh yeah that makes a lot of sense thanks, I didn't realise they didn't have early voting there.
 
Raoul said:
His model only factors in public polls. It doesn't factor in data such as Ralston's in NV, where the Dems appear to have built up a massive vote lead due to heavy hispanic EV turnout. At this point 4-5 days out, models that focus solely on polling tend to decohere due to the massive amounts of early voting.
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Doesn't he realize this?
Isn't his reputation at stake? Getting it right is what made him famous.. How can he turn a blind eye to something that seemingly everyone else knows.

Is his site just based on him grading public polls and taking the average? Seems pretty lame. I always thought there was a lot more behind his predictions.
 
Can someone explain how a state - seems to be mostly Maine I'm seeing - can be shared? I'm guessing each state has their own system?
 
prateik said:
Doesn't he realize this?
Isn't his reputation at stake? Getting it right is what made him famous.. How can he turn a blind eye to something that seemingly everyone else knows.

Is his site just based on him grading public polls and taking the average? Seems pretty lame. I always thought there was a lot more behind his predictions.
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Like I said, he goes by polls and other historical data, not by votes that have already been cast. Each Pres cycle, more and more people are early voting so future models will need to find a way to incorporate that sort of thing.
 
2cents said:
Can someone explain how a state - seems to be mostly Maine I'm seeing - can be shared? I'm guessing each state has their own system?
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InfiniteBoredom said:
States legislatures decided how to award their Electoral Vote. Maine award 2 of its electoral votes (representing the Senate seats) to the statewide winner, and one for each Congressional districts winner. Same with Nebraska.
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Is Nate not doing the same as he did in 2012 by not using early voting for his model?
 
Here you go -

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This is why I would like Trump to win. On top of everything else, I think he'd destroy the American rightwing and push the US towards the left.
 
That's an A pollster :) YUUUUUUGE



Edit: oh so it's still +4. I'll take it.

 
Dante said:


This is why I would like Trump to win. On top of everything else, I think he'd destroy the American rightwing and push the US towards the left.
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Opting for risky dangerous tactics to destroy "evil" from within is a disastrous strategy. We tried that here in Egypt and it backfired terribly.
 
Dante said:


This is why I would like Trump to win. On top of everything else, I think he'd destroy the American rightwing and push the US towards the left.
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Saw that the other day. Disappointingly non-sensical. I'd like my 2 minutes of life back.
 
The faux left are a laugh these days.
 
This is my take. Think it's gonna be close
oweER.png

Just kidding. I just think this thread has turned into an overflow of people's somewhat uneducated guesses. Which is of course okay :-) And I know I'm no better now.
 
Dante said:


This is why I would like Trump to win. On top of everything else, I think he'd destroy the American rightwing and push the US towards the left.
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Or under his rule, the GOP will be emboldened to continue with their systematic voter suppression, eroding at freedom of the press and dissent, ginning up white nationalism to the point the fringe groups like the KKK or Westboro Baptist Church gets a seat at the table. Disenfranchised minorities will cut themselves off completely from the process, which leaves power completely at the hand of the alt-right and eventually leads to a South American style military dictatorship.

It's always dark before it goes completely black. Accelerationism never works. Guys like this should be clapped in madhouses.
 
The Zizek fanboys really get on my tits.

I dated a Slovenian for a while and it was insufferable. If he said something, it was like talking to a devout Christian about the Bible. No possibility that he might be wrong.

Funnily one of my best friends, who is very left wing, even more than I, absolutely loves him; but he at least acknowledges that he holds Zizek up as this sacred cow, and actually disagrees with him on the above video.
 
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