2016 US Presidential Elections | Trump Wins

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64/35 on 538 now. Still very good numbers I think, even if it's narrowing. Mainly because I expected it to narrow as the election grew nearer.
 
Especially when you consider early voting in which Hillary was almost always ahead in key states.
 
RedSky said:
Twitter scares me, just throw up a few links when you got a spare min. :)
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I read a psychology piece covering social media a while back. An analogy that stuck out was Facebook is the equivalent of yelling inside an office what you're doing/thinking; Twitter is the equivalent of standing on a major city block during rush hour and yelling what you're doing/thinking. Both are seeking attention but one reflects a higher need for acceptance/approval due to the larger audience sought.
 
64/36 I mean***

Billy Blaggs said:
I can't tell which ones are worth watching at this point. They are so different.
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Yeah, it is difficult. Still, FiveThirtyEight is the poll I've been following for a while now. It's good because it's just an aggregate of all the most reliable polls.
 
Carolina Red said:
Your red herring about who is funding them doesn't concern me.

What does concern me is that arming the Peshmerga has support from democrats and republicans in the current government, so attempting to call out Hillary for supporting it is a bit silly.
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I get the notion a certain poster has spent an undetermined amount of time viewing and possibly posting within a certain reddit sub. ;)
 
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Clinton standing to the side of the stage as Jay Z is dropping N and F bombs.
At least leave the stage Hillary!
 
Nevada is done and dusted. Thousands of Hispanics lining up at 9/10 p.m on a record voting day when the day started with +61k vote lead for Dems in Clark Cty.

 
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Not going well for Nate, now fighting with ABC News chief pollster.



He's acting like a prick of late, not just prickly. Even the fight with Sam was largely him throwing shades.
 


Final tally for EV.

I.e:

images
 
still think a terrorist attack before the election will see trump win.
 
My guess: Nate Silver is doing a poor job this cycle. Even his coworkers disagree


Nevada is still light red in his polls-plus model
 
1)Their model doesn't take into account the early voting and 2) there are significantly less state polls this time around than in '12, and what we get are from pollsters of lower renown.

He has been candid about it, but still act like a dick for some reasons. Especially bringing up market odds to defend his model every time.
 
InfiniteBoredom said:
1)Their model doesn't take into account the early voting and 2) there are significantly less state polls this time around than in '12, and what we get are from pollsters of lower renown.

He has been candid about it, but still act like a dick for some reasons. Especially bringing up market odds to defend his model every time.
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Linzer commented on this

 
Yeap, that's what I referred to. Enten already said Clinton wins in 89% of simulations when she wins NV. Given the reporting so far, wouldn't the wise move be taking that into account and adjust the odds?
 
Seeing a whole bunch of new pages to read as I wake up - :drool:

Reading through a load of Alex Jones style bullshit with the usual inability to back it up - :boring:
 
I'd be amazed if IhabX7 has read any emails, he's probably just seen a few YouTube videos and got angry.
 
Raoul said:
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It's kind of reassuring when you read a piece like this that carefully details the painstaking research they did and you realise that there are still journalists out there working with this level of rigour, in contrast to the talking heads and plain liars on television.

Now, who was I arguing with a few days ago about Trump's rhetoric only being about illegal immigrants? :D

Trump, second-generation immigrant on one side and third-generation on the other side of his family, married to someone whose visa could now be revoked according to a strict reading of the laws relating to illegally working on the wrong visa.
 
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