2016 US Presidential Elections | Trump Wins

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Kaos said:
Was that evenly distributed across states though? Or are we talking raw voting numbers?
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Instead of recounting all of the details of the ’92 race here, I’ll simply refer you to one of my previous posts on the subject. If you want the Cliff’s Notes version it goes like this: (1) Economic anxiety was high, causing Bush’s poll numbers to drop to poisonous levels — by the fall of ’92 he was not an incumbent who, on paper, should have won reelection; (2) Not a single public opinion poll from the middle of July (when Perot dropped out the race) through the end of September (when Perot returned) gave Bush a lead over Clinton — not even in the immediate wake of the August ’92 GOP convention. In fact, Clinton’s average lead in this period was double-digits — and the race was not tightening at the time Perot jumped back in; (3) A comprehensive national exit poll found that Perot voters were divided almost evenly on their second choice and that Clinton — in a two-way race — would still have beaten Bush by 5.8 million votes (his actual margin was 5.3 million in initial ’92 tally). Here’s how the Washington Post summarized the exit poll:

Ross Perot’s presence on the 1992 presidential ballot did not change the outcome of the election, according to an analysis of the second choices of Perot supporters.

The analysis, based on exit polls conducted by Voter Research & Surveys (VRS) for the major news organizations, indicated that in Perot’s absence, only Ohio would have have shifted from the Clinton column to the Bush column. This would still have left Clinton with a healthy 349-to-189 majority in the electoral college.

And even in Ohio, the hypothetical Bush “margin” without Perot in the race was so small that given the normal margin of error in polls, the state still might have stuck with Clinton absent the Texas billionaire.

In most states, the second choices of Perot voters only reinforced the actual outcome. For example, California, New York, Illinois and Oregon went to Clinton by large margins, and Perot voters in those states strongly preferred Clinton to Bush.

Repeat after me: Ross Perot did not “cost” George H.W. Bush the 1992 election. If you see or hear a commentator using this claim as supporting evidence, immediately discount whatever argument that commentator is advancing. The poor economy doomed George H.W. Bush in 1992 — not a short billionaire from Texas.
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It's not the only source I've read/heard the same from. That being said Perot being in the race (and then dropping out and re-entering) must have had some effect on how the other campaigns were run, narratives etc, I doubt it was enough to be able to say he swayed the election one way or the other though.
 
unchanged_lineup said:
:lol:

Edit: let me emphasise, if not clear, that I don't think the image you posted is ridiculous - I think your stance is ridiculous, all the more because of the way Trump's campaign manager doubled-down when they were trying to force the shoe on the other foot.
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Please Dont care what I think. I don't have a vote but I'd swim the Atlantic ocean to vote clinton if I did.

I'm a student of psychology & politics and my stance is very much based on what way people will view this PR piece 1 week out from voting.
 
bazalini said:
Please Dont care what I think. I don't have a vote but I'd swim the Atlantic ocean to vote clinton if I did.

I'm a student of psychology & politics and my stance is very much based on what way people will view this PR piece 1 week out from voting.
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Ok, this must be a very, very interesting time to be a student of those things.
 
Ivor Ballokov said:

It's not the only source I've read/heard the same from. That being said Perot being in the race (and then dropping out and re-entering) must have had some effect on how the other campaigns were run, narratives etc, I doubt it was enough to be able to say he swayed the election one way or the other though.
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Fair enough, I probably ignorantly bought into that cliched rhetoric, abit like Nader supposedly costing Gore in 2000.
 
bazalini said:
Please Dont care what I think. I am speaking as regard the conteXT of this storyline 1 week out of election day
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Im Loving it. And I called this Trump come back 2 weeks ago on here. Before this FBI story he was already crawling back. If I was a clinton voter I'd be very worried. They've lost their cosy lead, lost their authority. HRC is not coming across assured as she should be, her pointing today looks awful. I'd also be very concerned about a closet Trump vote who will vote for him on the day. As what happened with Brexit, Scotland Indo vote and Cameron in last election.

Here's hoping Clinton pulls this around and kicks on. She just needs Florida
 
bazalini said:
Please Dont care what I think. I am speaking as regard the conteXT of this storyline 1 week out of election day
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Isn't the veracity of the accusations important? I think it is far fetched that Clinton got all these women to come out. Assuming they are not lying, I suspect they decided to bury this year's ago and then the rise of Trump and prospect of a proper/rapist leading the country has made them reconsider.
 
senorgregster said:
Isn't the veracity of the accusations important? I think it is far fetched that Clinton got all these women to come out. Assuming they are not lying, I suspect they decided to bury this year's ago and then the rise of Trump and prospect of a proper/rapist leading the country has made them reconsider.
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At this stage another woman coming out will not effect Trump. The only thing it will do is solidify trumps belief this election is rigged. Throw in the Clinton FBI scandal and the sudden appearance of a 13 year with a week to go - ull find must people who will be effected by this is wavering Clinton voters (not Trump's)

No surprise to see this interview now not happening. Democrats won't want it.

Better off focusing on Trump's tax's (which will come big imo) or his personal insults directed at women.
 
GiddyUp said:
Find the longest video you can on YouTube of someone speaking Russian along with their national anthem and blast that fecking shit on 11 for the whole night. I would also suggest grabbing some pussy and then call them liars when the cops get called, you can see if it a non issue after the election as it was before it.
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@Grinner
You mean this? :drool:
 
bazalini said:
At this stage another woman coming out will not effect Trump. The only thing it will do is solidify trumps belief this election is rigged. Throw in the Clinton FBI scandal and the sudden appearance of a 13 year with a week to go - ull find must people who will be effected by this is wavering Clinton voters (not Trump's)

No surprise to see this interview now not happening. Democrats won't want it.

Better off focusing on Trump's tax's (which will come big imo) or his personal insults directed at women.
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I think a 13 year old rape case is a bigger deal. The others have alarming become noise as you point out.
 
bazalini said:
At this stage another woman coming out will not effect Trump. The only thing it will do is solidify trumps belief this election is rigged. Throw in the Clinton FBI scandal and the sudden appearance of a 13 year with a week to go - ull find must people who will be effected by this is wavering Clinton voters (not Trump's)

No surprise to see this interview now not happening. Democrats won't want it.

Better off focusing on Trump's tax's (which will come big imo) or his personal insults directed at women.
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I really am wondering what Rick Wilson keeps alluding to that the press and the Dems both have on Drumpf, more to the point, I'm wondering how harmful it would actually be to him. If it's film of him being racist and calling someone a n****r or something equally disgusting then I don't even think that will hurt him. I think his actual supporters will all love that shit, and just think "oh great, he actually thinks and speaks like we do" and all it will do is reinforce their love of him and empower them to act even more like racist cnuts.

More tax scandals don't seem to be likely or that bothersome, neither will his obvious charity dodging or connections to the Russians or even American mob.

It really is hard to say what, if anything will make a difference.
 
langster said:
I really am wondering what Rick Wilson keeps alluding to that the press and the Dems both have on Drumpf, more to the point, I'm wondering how harmful it would actually be to him. If it's film of him being racist and calling someone a n****r or something equally disgusting then I don't even think that will hurt him. I think his actual supporters will all love that shit, and just think "oh great, he actually thinks and speaks like we do" and all it will do is reinforce their love of him and empower them to act even more like racist cnuts.

More tax scandals don't seem to be likely or that bothersome, neither will his obvious charity dodging or connections to the Russians or even American mob.

It really is hard to say what, if anything will make a difference.
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A video of the N word will be a massive influence on turnout on both sides. Granted his hard core will love it.
 
Red Defence said:
Well, one week from now we should know who has won this election. Hopefully that'll be Trump off our screens for a while.
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And this thread will be finished :(

Damn shame, it's been one of the best threads on this forum over the last year.
 
senorgregster said:
I think a 13 year old rape case is a bigger deal. The others have alarming become noise as you point out.
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I don't - the story has been out for some time. Today was about the girl going to face the cameras. She didn't.

If she did - All Trump has to do is say this is all The Clinton camp can do. It pushes further doubt into the minds. Unless the girl had photo evidence of Trump & herself together her story really is not going to help Clinton - so why risk it???

With 1 week to go - millions are being poured into this last week. It's were the election is won on floating voters or those still deciding to actually vote.

If I was Clinton I'd be looking that N***** video if there is one. If I was Trump Id be hammering home on Obamacare, jobs, emigrants, & terrorism. I'd also have as many military personal come out & support him to build on his make America Great Again
 
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senorgregster said:
A video of the N word will be a massive influence on turnout on both sides. Granted his hard core will love it.
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Well there are multiple videos of him saying it, many of The Apprentice cast and producers have said that on numerous occasions. I just can't see that being one of the two big stories to break. I think everyone should just keep tweeting the shit out of Wilson until he breaks :lol: Although one tweet he just retweeted AND liked was one saying that no big news story should be broken all the time there is such a massive World Series game going on, and they should wait until that's
done and dusted.

2cents said:
And this thread will be finished :(
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Don't worry, I'm sure we can continue a similar thread in this forum. Say, American Politics Republicans v Democrats. There's always something to report on and we can also either include Drumpf in it, or he can have his own thread after this has finished. Hopefully one called "Loser Donald" and NOT one called President Drumpf :(
 
Guessing we'll know by Friday evening about the video. Only possible time for it to drop to affect things.
 
Ubik said:
Bugger Arkansas, he lost NH by 7000 and Nader picked up 22,000.
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Nader only drew 24,000 Democrats to his cause, yet 308,000 Democrats voted for Bush. Hello. If Gore had taken even 1 percent of these Democrats from Bush, Nader’s votes wouldn’t have mattered. Second, liberals. Sheesh. Gore lost 191,000 self-described liberals to Bush, compared to less than 34,000 who voted for Nader.
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Edit: pretty sure that 1st number is wrong will try and find the correct one. But I do know Dems for Bush >> overall Nader votes.

Edit 2:Florida
 
langster said:
Well there are multiple videos of him saying it, many of The Apprentice cast and producers have said that on numerous occasions. I just can't see that being one of the two big stories to break. I think everyone should just keep tweeting the shit out of Wilson until he breaks :lol: Although one tweet he just retweeted AND liked was one saying that no big news story should be broken all the time there is such a massive World Series game going on, and they should wait until that's
done and dusted.
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Yep. After the World Series is the best time. So Friday after the euphoria for whichever team wins tonight and celebrations tomorrow.
 
bazalini said:
I don't - the story has been out for some time. Today was about the girl going to face the cameras. She didn't.

If she did - All Trump has to do is say this is all The Clinton camp can do. It pushes further doubt into the minds. Unless the girl had photo evidence of Trump & herself together her story really is not going to help Clinton - so why risk it???

With 1 week to go - millions are being poured into this last week. It's were the election is won on floating voters or those still deciding to actually vote.

If I was Clinton I'd be looking that N***** video if there is one. If I was Trump Id be hammering home on Obamacare, jobs, emigrants, & terrorism. I'd also have as many military personal come out & support him to build on his make America Great Again
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It's all about a face. If she has the courage to show it then it will take off.
 
langster said:
Well there are multiple videos of him saying it, many of The Apprentice cast and producers have said that on numerous occasions. I just can't see that being one of the two big stories to break. I think everyone should just keep tweeting the shit out of Wilson until he breaks :lol: Although one tweet he just retweeted AND liked was one saying that no big news story should be broken all the time there is such a massive World Series game going on, and they should wait until that's
done and dusted.


Don't worry, I'm sure we can continue a similar thread in this forum. Say, American Politics Republicans v Democrats. There's always something to report on and we can also either include Drumpf in it, or he can have his own thread after this has finished. Hopefully one called "Loser Donald" and NOT one called President Drumpf :(
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Has a video been shown on TV? I don't recollect one. That's the only way to get people to notice.
 
I can't believe the future of the world is being risked and big news stories are being postponed just because of a game of rounders played by fat blokes in pyjamas. Go on Eboue bite you fecker ,bite!
 
langster said:
I can't believe the future of the world is being risked and big news stories are being postponed just because of a game of rounders played by fat blokes in pyjamas. Go on Eboue bite you fecker ,bite!
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I'm more excited about game 7. And what the hell are pyjamas?
 
berbatrick said:
Edit: pretty sure that 1st number is wrong will try and find the correct one. But I do know Dems for Bush >> overall Nader votes.

Edit 2:Florida
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Well yeah that happens in every major election, I imagine Repubs and Conservatives for Gore was also far higher.
 
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