2016 US Presidential Elections | Trump Wins

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When Kellyanne Conway admits they are behind then you have good cause to believe it.
 
Just charter a plane to Moscow for him. He stays a martyr everyday you guys maintain the charade.
I don't understand why they haven't tried to smuggle him out via a back door (goods delivery van or something). Why is not more Hollywood? :(
 
Oh my! I'd hate your job. Seriously. I get so annoyed at pretty much everyone's lack of ability to speak even the most basic English. One of my pet hates is the complete failure of being able to pronounce the letter "h". Even on telly there is a SKYHD advert that says "watch SKY HEIGH DEE" and a BBC one that says about "BBC HEIGH DEE" too. FFS!

Aych.
 
Anything in the media on the Clinton foundation taking $12million from the Moroccan monarchy? I've seen it on Faux News but was curious if the other media outlets have picked it up.
 
An extraordinarily small dick seems to be the only logical answer to his incessant need to be the bestest at anything and everything.
 
Anything in the media on the Clinton foundation taking $12million from the Moroccan monarchy? I've seen it on Faux News but was curious if the other media outlets have picked it up.

Only Faux News (I like that) are running with it because anyone without their level of bias can see there's nothing inappropriate there.
 
Only Faux News (I like that) are running with it because anyone without their level of bias can see there's nothing inappropriate there.
Really? Presidential candidate taking $12 million in lobbying fees from a notoriously corrupt monarchy with a history of human rights abuses is not inappropriate ?
 
Really? Presidential candidate taking $12 million in lobbying fees from a notoriously corrupt monarchy with a history of human rights abuses is not inappropriate ?

She was offered a $12m donation to the Clinton Foundation if she held a Clinton Global Initiative event in Morocco and agreed to speak. What's the problem?
 
She was offered a $12m donation to the Clinton Foundation if she held a Clinton Global Initiative event in Morocco and agreed to speak. What's the problem?

The problem is it's Hillary and she's evil godammmnit! Can't you see? She's the debil! the debil I tell you! grrrrrrrrrrrrrr!
 


When you see numbers like this, it's hard to justify 538's conservative estimate. Without FL there's no path for Agent Orange to the presidency and the decrease in absentee margin is already half of Barry's 74k winning margin.
 
I've become a fan of Trump's compulsion to one-up himself within a few sentences. It's hilarious. In fact, I'm a big fan of it. Tremendous fan. No-one is a bigger fan of it than me.
 


When you see numbers like this, it's hard to justify 538's conservative estimate. Without FL there's no path for Agent Orange to the presidency and the decrease in absentee margin is already half of Barry's 74k winning margin.

So it's looking like it's going to be curtains for GOP in Florida?
Even with the 5 point mail advantage, didn't Obama win the state?
 
It might have been stated earlier, but what are we to make of this IBD/TIPP poll that keeps popping up with Trump leading?


That link seems to suggest the TIPP poll was the most accurate.

This link also suggests they were the most accurate for the last three election.

http://www.investors.com/politics/ibd-tipp-presidential-election-poll/

So i dont get why people are so confident and ignore this one poll just because its do different when it was so different previously and the only one that was accurate...
 
That link seems to suggest the TIPP poll was the most accurate.

This link also suggests they were the most accurate for the last three election.

http://www.investors.com/politics/ibd-tipp-presidential-election-poll/

So i dont get why people are so confident and ignore this one poll just because its do different when it was so different previously and the only one that was accurate...

It's abut the method.
Basically, TIPP uses a sample of people likely to vote. They will keep calling these people, always the same ones. While this can get remarkable results, it heavily depends on how accurate the initial sample correlates to the actual voterbase. If you have bad luck from hte beginning, with people leaining more republican, this bias will stay there throughout all of your polling process. Also, those polls are always favouring republicans since these are older and more likely to participate.
When such a poll goes so much against the average of other pollsters, it's rather likely the initial sample was wrong. Because of that, fivethirtyeight is as of now only considering trends (which will still show and are actually depicted like the national average of pollsters) from this poll.

Edit: a similarly conducted poll by ABC is currently showing Clinton being in front by 12 points. As you can see, while these are very accurate at showing trends, they are vulnerable to their own methods. No way in hell Clinton wil archieve a national +12.
 
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