2016 US Presidential Elections | Trump Wins

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PedroMendez said:
I see, the goalpost is getting moved each week. A couple of weeks ago the die-hard Clinton faction was boasting about Hillary winning in a landslide. Then they silently adopted the line that she might not win by a huge margin but her winning is a sure thing. Now Clinton being marginally ahead is all that’s left. Each time we got reassured, that Trump won´t surge any further, because how could he? Objections, that things might not be all rosy were ridiculed. The impact of Trump´s gaffs are getting overestimate and there is a lot of spinning about everything that relates to Clinton (didn’t a certain *someone* argue that the health issue would help Hillary? * cough*)
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1) I'm not moving goalposts. I've maintained in this thread for months that I expect the final margin to be Clinton + (4/6). Everything in between will be the usual campaign ups and downs.

2) The next polls will show her up from their immediate predecessors, so you can save your snark for when it's actually warranted.
 
VP89 said:
Need a bit of @Raoul's positivity on the votes again!
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I wouldn't say I'm positive, just realistic. Trump does have the populist support that is sweeping many of the nativist movements around the world into the spotlight. That said, he would require a perfect storm of events to unfold in order to win on November 8th.

As in, he would need to run the table on Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Iowa, Nevada AND pick off a state like Colorado, Wisconsin, or Pennsylvania AND not lose in either Georgia or Arizona. Not impossible but probabilistically not particularly likely.

In order to achieve the above, I would say he would need to be up 2-3 points in the 4 way head to head RCP average to just barely squeak by. (Hillary is currently up 1.1 on RCP).

Conversely, Hillary literally only needs to pick off one state and it's over. Hillary wins Florida ? It's over. Hillary wins Ohio or NC ? It's over. Hillary nicks Georgia ? It's over.

In the simplest terms, her path to 270 is much simpler and his would require him to more less achieve the perfect storm.

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I guess the good news is that despite her worst 2 weeks on the trail, Clinton still has her nose in front.
 
Raoul said:
I wouldn't say I'm positive, just realistic. Trump does have the populist support that is sweeping many of the nativist movements around the world into the spotlight. That said, he would require a perfect storm of events to unfold in order to win on November 8th.

As in, he would need to run the table on Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Iowa, Nevada AND pick off a state like Colorado, Wisconsin, or Pennsylvania AND not lose in either Georgia or Arizona. Not impossible but probabilistically not particularly likely.

In order to achieve the above, I would say he would need to be up 2-3 points in the 4 way head to head RCP average to just barely squeak by. (Hillary is currently up 1.1 on RCP).

Conversely, Hillary literally only needs to pick off one state and it's over. Hillary wins Florida ? It's over. Hillary wins Ohio or NC ? It's over. Hillary nicks Georgia ? It's over.

In the simplest terms, her path to 270 is much simpler and his would require him to more less achieve the perfect storm.

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Ah good to know, particularly that its more conceivable for Hilary to win one of Florida, Ohio, NC or nicks Georgia.

I'm still concerned about how trustworthy these polls actually are. It would fail capture the silent voters who are too uneasy about publically supporting Trump views. And I worry there is a fair few of them.
 
VP89 said:
Ah good to know, particularly that its more conceivable for Hilary to win one of Florida, Ohio, NC or nicks Georgia.

I'm still concerned about how trustworthy these polls actually are. It would fail capture the silent voters who are too uneasy about publically supporting Trump views. And I worry there is a fair few of them.
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I wonder about that, in relation to Brexit for example. While it's a stereotypical trait of British people, it's not exactly a stereotypical trait of Americans to keep silent about what they think, is it?
 
VP89 said:
Ah good to know, particularly that its more conceivable for Hilary to win one of Florida, Ohio, NC or nicks Georgia.

I'm still concerned about how trustworthy these polls actually are. It would fail capture the silent voters who are too uneasy about publically supporting Trump views. And I worry there is a fair few of them.
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That's why you shouldn't place much hope into individual polls and stick with the RCP average and the various statistical models that statisticians and mathematicians are employing:

- Who will be President (NY Times) - http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html

- Princeton Election Consortium (Sam Wang) - http://election.princeton.edu/

- FiveThirtyEight (Nate Silver) - http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

- Crystal Ball (Larry Sabato) - http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2016-president/

The best approach would be to take each of the above and correlate their current predictions to form a view on where the election is heading.
 
unchanged_lineup said:
I wonder about that, in relation to Brexit for example. While it's a stereotypical trait of British people, it's not exactly a stereotypical trait of Americans to keep silent about what they think, is it?
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Correct, and the so called silent voters would've been picked up through anonymous polling anyway.
 
I think the Brexit comparisons are a bit flawed. This country has been bombarded with anti EU propaganda for the best part of 15 years. And for a period leading up to the referendum, Leave camp was ahead. Our pollsters are also very unreliable.
 
Adisa said:
I think the Brexit comparisons are a bit flawed. This country has been bombarded with anti EU propaganda for the best part of 15 years. And for a period leading up to the referendum, Leave camp was ahead. Our pollsters are also very unreliable.
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And the final polls showed the race within MoE. It wasn't a polling upset.

Prime example of truthiness over empirical facts.
 
Adisa said:
I think the Brexit comparisons are a bit flawed. This country has been bombarded with anti EU propaganda for the best part of 15 years. And for a period leading up to the referendum, Leave camp was ahead. Our pollsters are also very unreliable.
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Tbf Americans have been bombarded with racist propaganda for longer than that.
 
Even if Trump somehow wins, the Brexit comparisons are nonsense as domestic US politics are lightyears apart from anything in Europe or elsewhere. Its just a lazy comparison since many posters here are British Isles based.
 
Raoul said:
Even if Trump somehow wins, the Brexit comparisons are nonsense as domestic US politics are lightyears apart from anything in Europe or elsewhere. Its just a lazy comparison since many posters here are British Isles based.
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To be fair hasn't the Brexit comparison been used quite a fair bit in media in the States as well as by Trump himself?
 
FlawlessThaw said:
To be fair hasn't the Brexit comparison been used quite a fair bit in media in the States as well as by Trump himself?
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Its been used by Trump at various times because it benefits him to frame it as such - as in most people thought Hillary would win but Trump would pull off a shocker on election day. Its complete nonsense. Even if Trump wins, it won't be because of Brexit.
 
Does anyone actually really like Hilary, or is she just the least rotten out of two rotten apples?

She has always seemed really fake to me, if she was a man I would be calling him a sociopath.
 
Classical Mechanic said:
Does anyone actually really like Hilary, or is she just the least rotten out of two rotten apples?

She has always seemed really fake to me, if she was a man I would be calling him a sociopath.
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Probably that. I'd say at best people respect her and appreciate that she's done a lot in her political career, but I don't think many find her either charismatic or all that likable either.
 
Little blue arrow in the RCP average for the 1st time in more than a week...
 
Hardly unexpected. Narratives take 3-5 days to be reflected in newer polls. Hillary's "Deplorables" comment and heath scare weren't reflected until mid week last week, and now Drumpf's Birther BS from late last week is finally getting reflected in this week's polls. Expect more of this throughout the rest of this week and leading into the Monday debate.
 
BTW....the new Monmouth FL poll should be enough to nudge FL back into the Blue and thus Hillary's probability of winning on Silver's model back into the low to mid 60s.
 
Raoul said:
Hardly unexpected. Narratives take 3-5 days to be reflected in newer polls. Hillary's "Deplorables" comment and heath scare weren't reflected until mid week last week, and now Drumpf's Birther BS from late last week is finally getting reflected in this week's polls. Expect more of this throughout the rest of this week and leading into the Monday debate.
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Hopefully...will be helpful if it's Hilary who's heading into the debates with the momentum.
 
Cheesy said:
Hopefully...will be helpful if it's Hilary who's heading into the debates with the momentum.
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I can see Trump doing a bit better than expected but can't see her losing per say. She's just armed with too much information and policy ideas to fare any worse than a draw.
 
Revan said:
Of course. What I mean is that it is very close. Just a few weeks ago I thought that Hillary is going to win easily, but now it looks more like a coin throw than her being a favorite.
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I expect her numbers to rise after the debates, he will be a car crash, believe me folks.
 
Classical Mechanic said:
Does anyone actually really like Hilary, or is she just the least rotten out of two rotten apples?

She has always seemed really fake to me, if she was a man I would be calling him a sociopath.
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Look up on her record of helping people in all walks of life. Every politician has to have many faces. Trump has two, the wrinkly one stuck on his skull and the waxy orange shell hanging from his comb over.
 
Raoul said:
Even if Trump somehow wins, the Brexit comparisons are nonsense as domestic US politics are lightyears apart from anything in Europe or elsewhere. Its just a lazy comparison since many posters here are British Isles based.
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Don't think its that lazy.

Both are headed by extreme right wing people (on the main issues in the election) one of which being immigration. Also both were laughed off at the early stages and both were still lagging in the polls at this point of the respective campaigns.

Nigel Farage has even spoke at a Trump rally
 
Sigma said:
Don't think its that lazy.

Both are headed by extreme right wing people (on the main issues in the election) one of which being immigration. Also both were laughed off at the early stages and both were still lagging in the polls at this point of the respective campaigns.

Nigel Farage has even spoke at a Trump rally
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The dynamics behind the Trump campaign are completely different as he's been a Democrat for most of his life and is merely lying his way to power.
 
Raoul said:
The dynamics behind the Trump campaign are completely different as he's been a Democrat for most of his life and is merely lying his way to power.
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Brexit basically done this too

But I get your point, its even worse than usual as he has done a complete u-turn on his political ideology whilst Brexiters have always been sceptical of the EU
 
It's truly depressing that ~40% of America apparently align with that contemptible fecking cnut.
 
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