I think he has a chance... some good debates (well technicall not a good debate but reducing it to petty name calling etc where he should shine) followed by perhaps more email revelations, or another health scare for Clinton, or a terrorist attack in the states etc and I think then yup president trump (though I think he may try and change it to emperor)
2016 US Presidential Elections | Trump Wins
- Thread starter Raoul
- Start date
- Status
Send them to the gulag!
Might be better that the result is perceived as being closer. Could get some apathetic voters out in favour of Clinton.
To be honest mate I don't know enough about America or its politics to call it, I'm more an interested onlooker - it's just a gut feeling with the way politics around the world seems to be heading recently, coupled with Trump's very convincing "I'm a winner, they're all losers!" shtick, and the fact that @Raoul seems convinced Hillary has it in the bag.
The odds are stacked against him - as in he would have to completely run the table in nearly every swing state, which would require him to do slightly better than where he is in the polls today, but do so not just on election day but also in early voting. If even a single toss up state goes against him, he will be blocked from reaching 270.
She most certainly doesn't have it in the bag - but the way the electoral college is set up, the Dems always have the advantage to where probabilistically, Hillary should be able to reach 270. This year however, she is definitely swimming upstream against populist sentiment. That said, Trump will have to be up by about 2-3% in the national polls in the RCP average in order to scrape by with something like 283.
He has a chance for sure but i'd say it's pretty low. He would have to crush Hillary in the debates which i doubt will happen since she's a career politician with aa great track record of keeping her composure under pressure. A terrorist attack i don't think will do as much as people think for trump. Hillary is quite hawkish herself and can always pull out the who got bin laden card. The health thing could be a factor. I don't know how bad it is but at this moment i think it's his best shot at winning. I mean when you're relying on the other canditate to croak, it's kinda a long shot imo.
whats the error rate in the national polls - because I suspect some traditional non voters may well vote trump and they are notoriously difficult for pollsters to factor in
OMG Trump is so gonna win isn't he!
There's little to no error rate when you look at the RCP average, since you are combining all the polls over the past few weeks and weighing each individual poll based on its historical accuracy. That said, you can't really accurately factor in two key variables - early voting and voter turnout on election day. IMO the early voting bit favors Hillary while the populist sentiment this year suggests Trump will get a good turnout on election day.
Always bear in mind that pollsters, even the best ones, don't have access to voters data the way campaigns do, hence no matter how hard they weight the samples, it's always influenced by response rate I.e supporters of the candidate with positive news coverage are more likely to response.
And the Democratic coalition breaks late. It's just the nature of the beast. Youth, AA, Hispanics, women. They like to dither.
Odd that, seeing Trump as a somewhat normal bloke is weird.
Seems Fallon's getting a lot of heat about it as well. Although I'm not sure who's was excepting Jimmy Fallon of people to give Trump hard hitting questions. If Fallon did give Trump a hard time then you have to image he would have to do it every other politician. I get the point that it legitimise Trumps bigotry, but you can say the same for other time he's had a politician on.
In summary shit chart show does something shit. Oh and who knew it wasn't a wig after all.
Fallon is nice to everybody. It's why he hosts that show.
People criticising Fallon for that are utter imbeciles. Liberal icon Stephen Colbert spent years shit talking Drumpf and was happy clappy when the latter went on his show.
Spare that outrage for the fact that Fallon is a completely unfunny act.
Spare that outrage for the fact that Fallon is a completely unfunny act.
Colbert and Stewart's interview segments were almost uniformly disappointing.
Eh? Why so angry? He does the late night thing really well. A likeable guy chatting to celebs so that you can drift off to sleep. What else is needed?
This is a simple example of how the anti Trump campaign is fueling the Trump campaign. The extraordinary hyperbole that Trumps critics use when attacking him, only adds to the distrust of the media, the political elite and regressive left. When a man is compared to Hitler and then turns up on Jimmy Kimmel seeming some what normal, then it's not going to look good for those comparing him to Hitler. If you watch the interview it's hardly a case of a "master at work", with Trump being charismatic, witty, intelligent and so on. He actually comes over as pretty dull and far from a inspirational leader, if you look at it objectively. But because he's portrayed so negatively, that doesn't matter. What matters is that he comes across as nowhere near as bad as is being make out by his opponents and this only adds to the distrust of them.
In my opinion if it wasn't for the anti Trump campaign, I really don't think he'd have a chance. I and friend were discussing how Trump could possibly be in with a chance the other day and even mentioned this thread to him as an example of what it is that fuels his campaign. Trump himself is almost an irrelevance. He doesn't really represent the Alt Right. In fact his polls have gone up recently as he's been quieter than usual. It's not about Trump, but about taking a stand against the progressive regressive agenda. I've never seen an election where policies seem so insignificant and it's the fault of the anti Trump campaign. If it were left just down to polices, I don't think Trump would have a chance, but as things stand he does and we are in this crazy situation where Donald fecking Trump could be the leader of the free wolrd!
I found him totally lacking in comedic charm. Craig Ferguson was 10 times the host/interviewer.
The current bunch are all a bit shit tbh. Seth Meyers does the political commentary well, but that's all he has. James Corden is boring. Kimmel was never good to begin with. Conan is still passable.
The loss of Jon Stewart really fecked up my life
He's got a much better chance than anyone would've liked him to have at this stage. Ideally Clinton will pull through but the momentum's with Trump at the moment.
And he´s the one responsable for having The Roots. I love that.
Oh my........... What's he done now?
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry...ed-birther-obama_us_57dc161fe4b04a1497b40c77?
Possibly that maybe?
If so, he is absolutely losing the plot now. With Ivanka walking out of an interview with Cosmos (Cosmopolitan Magazine) FFS! And Donald Jr making a huge mistake with a really piss poor Holocaust joke and now this, maybe the pressure is getting to the Trumps.
Oddly enough I was sent that document a few days ago and intended to read it. In my original post I was going to add that many economical factors are out of the control of the president and the fact is overlooked by the electorate. Dumbing it down, most voters think about who was in charge during bad times and who was in charge during good times (i.e. who is at fault). The fact is during the Bush years, particularly toward the end, things started heading south very badly. Yet, even with this fact they are blaming Obama. For instance, when he took office gas was on a steep upwards trajectory but hadn't hit high levels yet. They simply blamed him for what happened shortly after. The reality was, whatever had caused the spike already took place and it was going to happen no matter what. The right are sneaky feckers, you can find charts showing Obama is to blame for gas prices. They basically bucket each year to make it look like there was no upward trajectory during Bush's tenure. Note, they've stopped talking about gas not it is at $2/gal. I've used gas as an example, it is basically true for several other things too. Seems some are covered in your link.
Oh my........... What's he done now?
More birther BS according to the comments.
I just edited with a link as you were replying.
Oh my........... What's he done now?
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry...ed-birther-obama_us_57dc161fe4b04a1497b40c77?
Possibly that maybe?
If so, he is absolutely losing the plot now. With Ivanka walking out of an interview with Cosmos (Cosmopolitan Magazine) FFS! And Donald Jr making a huge mistake with a really piss poor Holocaust joke and now this, maybe the pressure is getting to the Trumps.
He scheduled a massive news conference at his Trump hotel in DC where all the journos showed up (suggesting they would be able to ask questions), then gave a quick sentence about Obama being born in the US and then didn't take any questions. His campaign last night suggested Hillary's campaign in 2008 actually started the birther movement, which is probably what the Tweet is about.
The bigger issue here is Trump lost yesterday's cycle and will probably lose today's as well - both of which should reflect in the next round of polls coming out in 3-5 days.
You could (I'm being exceedingly generous here) make the case that he was a true constitutionalist in leading the charge for birtherism, but that argument is thrown out pronto when the midden heap of a human being promptly demanded Obama release his college transcripts to prove he was good enough for Harvard right after the latter released his long form birth certificate.
This is a fight he cannot win, and if he wins, then the US is too far gone down the ditch and we need not care any longer.
This is a fight he cannot win, and if he wins, then the US is too far gone down the ditch and we need not care any longer.
Any truth here? Its not like she is above that.
Didnt her campaign use this in an ad in 08
http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-m...ump/hillary-clinton-obama-birther-fact-check/Any truth here? Its not like she is above that.
Didnt her campaign use this in an ad in 08
Any truth here? Its not like she is above that.
Didnt her campaign use this in an ad in 08
http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-m...ump/hillary-clinton-obama-birther-fact-check/
Edit: albeit, framing Obama as 'un-American' was indeed one of her 08 campaign strategy, proposed by then- campaign manager Mark Penn.
So it came from the democrats and her supporters? Basket of deplorables.
Any truth here? Its not like she is above that.
Didnt her campaign use this in an ad in 08
No and its been repeatedly debunked. There were some Hillary supporters in Texas that originally raised it (not her campaign), which was then quickly picked up by Republicans. Trump completely used this lie to gin up right wing support that eventually gave him the credibility to run for President this time. 60-65% of Trump supporters still don't believe Obama was born in the US.
Trump trolling the press is pretty funny.
Not as funny as his campaign being linked with birtherism again.
That's just weird.. That is nearly a third of the voters in America..
Its not so weird when you consider that Trump is virtually tied with Hillary.
There's plenty of weird shit massive swathes of Americans believe in though, especially on a lot of religious issues.
Clinton favs back to post DNC-level.
Getting sick turned out to be a pretty good thing.
Basket of deplorables sums up the PUMAs pretty well to be fair. Calling them Democrats might be a stretch though.
- Status