2016 US Presidential Elections | Trump Wins

Status
Not open for further replies.
I don't know if I'm reading this correctly or not.. but if you scroll down on
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
it show Hillary is ahead on Florida , Nevada and New Hampshire and if those moved to Trump, he would be in the lead.

Then there is the updates section with the latest polls (from other sources)
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/updates/

and the ones from yesterday show Trump leading in Florida and Nevada.. and tied in New Hampshire .


And none of the reds have moved to hillary either.
 
In short: Mexico is trying to keep those pesky immigrants out (the situation on the southern border is horrible; human rights abuses on a daily basis) and the USA is paying for it (partly). Oh, the irony. :lol:

Btw: when Mexicans complains about the treatment of their fellow nationals in the USA, you should remind them how their country treats immigrants in the south…….


http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...-wall-Central-America-illegal-immigrants.html
 
Imagine losing to an openly racist and fascist candidate. FFS.

I'm not sure if I could stomach travelling to the US and seeing Drumpf's picture hanging up in the airports.
 
I don't know if I'm reading this correctly or not.. but if you scroll down on
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
it show Hillary is ahead on Florida , Nevada and New Hampshire and if those moved to Trump, he would be in the lead.

Then there is the updates section with the latest polls (from other sources)
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/updates/

and the ones from yesterday show Trump leading in Florida and Nevada.. and tied in New Hampshire .


And none of the reds have moved to hillary either.
The results of those Google Consumer Surveys all look dodgy as feck.
 
Imagine losing to an openly racist and fascist candidate. FFS.

I'm not sure if I could stomach travelling to the US and seeing Drumpf's picture hanging up in the airports.
The best picture in the best airports, trust me. Trust me.

Seriously though.. Part of me says "stay here so that you can say 'told you so' every time he fecks something up" and then the other part of me says "gtfo while you still can before he fecks everything up!"
 
The best picture in the best airports, trust me. Trust me.

Seriously though.. Part of me says "stay here so that you can say 'told you so' every time he fecks something up" and then the other part of me says "gtfo while you still can before he fecks everything up!"
Yea I don't envy you, but let's not assume the worst just yet.
 
For the last few years I've read/heard so many times that with the changing demographics in the states it would be hard for the Democrats to lose the WH for the foreseeable future and yet here we are, what a clusterfeck this could turn out to be.
 
For the last few years I've read/heard so many times that with the changing demographics in the states it would be hard for the Democrats to lose the WH for the foreseeable future and yet here we are, what a clusterfeck this could turn out to be.
Doesn't account for this happening

 
Doesn't account for this happening



To be fair a lot of people called it a while back when it was Clinton vs Sanders. Ideally a lot of those younger people would compromise and go for Clinton...but it's not hard to blame them for not doing so. It's ultimately Clinton's job to win them over and she doesn't seem to be making a good job of it.
 
Do you think that would have happened if it wasn't Clinton, Sanders or Warren it obviously wouldn't have but what about Biden for instance?

Biden would maybe be somewhere down in the middle. He'd lose more of the youth vote than Sanders or Warren, but I don't think he's perceived as being as corrupt/unreliable/unlikable as Hilary is.
 
Biden would maybe be somewhere down in the middle. He'd lose more of the youth vote than Sanders or Warren, but I don't think he's perceived as being as corrupt/unreliable/unlikable as Hilary is.

That would be my thinking too, makes it all the more a clusterfeck if we end up with President Trump. I think I need @Raoul to come in and tell me it's all going to be ok.
 
Do you think that would have happened if it wasn't Clinton, Sanders or Warren it obviously wouldn't have but what about Biden for instance?
Biden would've probably been the most effective candidate electorally out of any of them and he's still the likeliest in my view to step in in the event Clinton had to step aside.

But remember that the current state is after the worst period for Clinton of the entire campaign. It's less than a month since she was up 10 points, there's still two months of campaigning left and Trump's gonna have his own issues.
 
Biden would've probably been the most effective candidate electorally out of any of them and he's still the likeliest in my view to step in in the event Clinton had to step aside.

But remember that the current state is after the worst period for Clinton of the entire campaign. It's less than a month since she was up 10 points, there's still two months of campaigning left and Trump's gonna have his own issues.

That's the issue though...will he? What can happen to him now that would actually make people turn against him? He's insulted the family of a dead soldier, he's mocked the disabled, he's mocked women and come across as a misogynist, he's denied man made climate change in the past, he's insulted Mexicans and Muslims in general...and there's even been talk of him wanting to appease Russia and having dodgy connections to them.

What can harm him at this stage? Because I'm really, really struggling to see anything that will.

I wouldn't be too concerned if the Clinton being 10 points ahead thing had been seen as some high mark that was unlikely to be reached again. It wasn't, though...most people sort of assumed that was Clinton ahead and that Trump had damaged his own chances and that he was finished. The Dems were riding the wave of a very, very strong convention, but at this stage what will put them firmly ahead again? I doubt the debates will, since Trump's going to interrupt Clinton constantly and dumb the whole thing down.
 
It is not over until it’s over. It is too late for anyone to step in and the surrounding mess would just ensure a Trump victory.
If Clinton doesn´t want to gamble, she could still throw youngish voters a life-line that makes it easier for them to support her…..something like a credible commitment to campaign finance reform and government transparency. Get someone like Sander/Warren onboard and put them in charge of it. If scaring people into voting for her is all she has left, it will be a nerve-racking election day…..
 
It is not over until it’s over. It is too late for anyone to step in and the surrounding mess would just ensure a Trump victory.
If Clinton doesn´t want to gamble, she could still throw youngish voters a life-line that makes it easier for them to support her…..something like a credible commitment to campaign finance reform and government transparency. Get someone like Sander/Warren onboard and put them in charge of it. If scaring people into voting for her is all she has left, it will be a nerve-racking election day…..

Another similarity to Brexit. Remain lost because they didn't present their own credible argument; they just ridiculed and tried to disprove the other one. And they were mostly right, but that didn't matter to voters.
 
That's the issue though...will he? What can happen to him now that would actually make people turn against him? He's insulted the family of a dead soldier, he's mocked the disabled, he's mocked women and come across as a misogynist, he's denied man made climate change in the past, he's insulted Mexicans and Muslims in general...and there's even been talk of him wanting to appease Russia and having dodgy connections to them.

What can harm him at this stage? Because I'm really, really struggling to see anything that will.

I wouldn't be too concerned if the Clinton being 10 points ahead thing had been seen as some high mark that was unlikely to be reached again. It wasn't, though...most people sort of assumed that was Clinton ahead and that Trump had damaged his own chances and that he was finished. The Dems were riding the wave of a very, very strong convention, but at this stage what will put them firmly ahead again? I doubt the debates will, since Trump's going to interrupt Clinton constantly and dumb the whole thing down.
Yes, polls are always volatile and the public's memory on these things tends to be short. Let's just wait to see how things shake up in the coming weeks before having a collective panic attack, Pennsylvania is still firmly Clinton in all the models and without that, Trump has very few paths to 270.
 
Biden would've probably been the most effective candidate electorally out of any of them and he's still the likeliest in my view to step in in the event Clinton had to step aside.

But remember that the current state is after the worst period for Clinton of the entire campaign. It's less than a month since she was up 10 points, there's still two months of campaigning left and Trump's gonna have his own issues.

Maybe I'm just panicking, but at this stage, after all that Trump has said and done the fact he is rising in the polls and looks like having a shot at winning it is pretty terrifying to me.

What I can't get my head around is where the change is coming from, I find it crazy that anyone could see Clinton have a bit of a wobble and decide that they should vote for a racist, misogynist, conman like Trump, it's astounding.
 
Maybe I'm just panicking, but at this stage, after all that Trump has said and done the fact he is rising in the polls and looks like having a shot at winning it is pretty terrifying to me.

What I can't get my head around is where the change is coming from, I find it crazy that anyone could see Clinton have a bit of a wobble and decide that they should vote for a racist, misogynist, conman like Trump, it's astounding.

It's not just that - it's the deplorable statement she made about Republicans (which was beyond idiotic), as well as the latest leaked emails which talked about Bill sticking dicking bimbos and shit. And if they haven't been factored in yet, I imagine there's worse to come for the Dems.
 
That would be my thinking too, makes it all the more a clusterfeck if we end up with President Trump. I think I need @Raoul to come in and tell me it's all going to be ok.

I'd be worried if Trump takes the lead in PA or VA. If she holds on to them, it will be difficult for him to reach 270.

These recent polls where Trump is surging were mostly done during her illness and deplorables comment time frame. She will be campaigning again today and Trump is about to get hit with a shitstorm of negative news related to Trump U, Trump Foundation, no health records/taxes etc. Let's see how the numbers unfold a week from now going into the first debate.
 
It's not just that - it's the deplorable statement she made about Republicans (which was beyond idiotic), as well as the latest leaked emails which talked about Bill sticking dicking bimbos and shit. And if they haven't been factored in yet, I imagine there's worse to come for the Dems.

Yeah that's true I suppose, but it pales in comparison to Trump's statements (in the last week he said he'd take Iraqi oil) and what he says he will do if elected. I suppose what I'm trying to say is that with how extreme Trump's rhetoric is I find it crazy that people could be undecided or swayed.
 
Maybe I'm just panicking, but at this stage, after all that Trump has said and done the fact he is rising in the polls and looks like having a shot at winning it is pretty terrifying to me.

What I can't get my head around is where the change is coming from, I find it crazy that anyone could see Clinton have a bit of a wobble and decide that they should vote for a racist, misogynist, conman like Trump, it's astounding.
Part of me wants to see him win and for every single one of his voters to lose their house/car/job etc to put them straight (without impacting non-voters - obviously impossible). Frankly, they deserve it. I wonder if they are siding with him for the entertainment value. Perhaps they are bored and want some fun. They have attention spans of goldfish. I just can't fathom that nearly half the country think he is fit to lead this country. Sad!
 
I'd be worried if Trump takes the lead in PA or VA. If she holds on to them, it will be difficult for him to reach 270.

These recent polls where Trump is surging were mostly done during her illness and deplorables comment time frame. She will be campaigning again today and Trump is about to get hit with a shitstorm of negative news related to Trump U, Trump Foundation, no health records/taxes etc. Let's see how the numbers unfold a week from now going into the first debate.
I'm looking forward to a real debate. I still think Lauer was the closest to tagging him down. I think Wallace will be the worst. Hopefully the others will actually make him answer a damn question rather than something unrelated.
 
I'd be worried if Trump takes the lead in PA or VA. If she holds on to them, it will be difficult for him to reach 270.

These recent polls where Trump is surging were mostly done during her illness and deplorables comment time frame. She will be campaigning again today and Trump is about to get hit with a shitstorm of negative news related to Trump U, Trump Foundation, no health records/taxes etc. Let's see how the numbers unfold a week from now going into the first debate.

I feel a bit better now. You're like a warm blanket and a bowl of soup on a cold day.
 
Part of me wants to see him win and for every single one of his voters to lose their house/car/job etc to put them straight (without impacting non-voters - obviously impossible). Frankly, they deserve it. I wonder if they are siding with him for the entertainment value. Perhaps they are bored and want some fun. They have attention spans of goldfish. I just can't fathom that nearly half the country think he is fit to lead this country. Sad!

They'd still blame Obama.
 
Biden would've probably been the most effective candidate electorally out of any of them and he's still the likeliest in my view to step in in the event Clinton had to step aside.

But remember that the current state is after the worst period for Clinton of the entire campaign. It's less than a month since she was up 10 points, there's still two months of campaigning left and Trump's gonna have his own issues.

It's hard to see an issue he is passionate about. Maybe cancer? But in my opinion he would be a second Bush Sr, swept out after 4 years.
 
Would any of the mad shit he harps on about actually happen?

For example, day one "build the wall!" Advisors: "No actually that's completely morally and economically unviable plus we would need thousands of guards to patrol said wall and Mexico absolutely will not pay for it, Mr President."

Could he actually ruin everything or are the systems in place to prevent it?
 
Part of me wants to see him win and for every single one of his voters to lose their house/car/job etc to put them straight (without impacting non-voters - obviously impossible). Frankly, they deserve it. I wonder if they are siding with him for the entertainment value. Perhaps they are bored and want some fun. They have attention spans of goldfish. I just can't fathom that nearly half the country think he is fit to lead this country. Sad!

Sadly a lot of people have struggled economically in recent times, and they're just sick of current rules and establishment types. Hard to blame them, although I do think it's worrying they turn to someone as deplorable as Trump.
 
I'd be worried if Trump takes the lead in PA or VA. If she holds on to them, it will be difficult for him to reach 270.

These recent polls where Trump is surging were mostly done during her illness and deplorables comment time frame. She will be campaigning again today and Trump is about to get hit with a shitstorm of negative news related to Trump U, Trump Foundation, no health records/taxes etc. Let's see how the numbers unfold a week from now going into the first debate.
Hopefully. I'm surprised how much I care about a presidential election of a country I've never been to.
 
I don't think a Trump presidency will change much. Half of the things he says are impossible to pass into law.
What I fear, is that his presidency will unleash a huge wave of xenophobia and bigotry.
 
It's hard to see an issue he is passionate about. Maybe cancer? But in my opinion he would be a second Bush Sr, swept out after 4 years.
Think any candidate would go after 4 (including Bernie).

Maybe the election should be changed to a referendum on the repeal of the 22nd amendment instead.
 
Reputable polls from several swing states have Trump ahead or closing in.

The biggest problem for Clinton is that she isn't inspirational other than not being Trump. She squandered the post convention bounce by focusing too much on being 'not Trump' rather than defining herself and what she would do.

As bad as his tactics have been Trump has managed to excite his base and his base is enthusiastic enough to turn out. The question now is weather there are enough enthusiastic Trumpers to win the election.

Because of Clinton's lack of inspiration, I can see the turnout being low and Trump winning because of it.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.