2016 US Presidential Elections | Trump Wins
- Thread starter Raoul
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There's ranking done by the Cook Political Report I think. Problem is, this is an unusual cycle, the Dems can win the presidency by 200 EVs and not actually picking up that much seats down ballot, since the GOP donors network will be diverting resources to those seats.
Its an extrapolation based on Obama having won 237 House seats in 08 after winning 53% of the popular vote. Clinton and Sanders are polling significantly better in Trump matchups at this time, which if realized in November, would result in at least as many House seats (in addition to winning the Senate).
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/11/how-democrats-could-win-the-house-213318
http://cookpolitical.com/file/2013-04-50.pdf
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...s/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html
The question is whether the Dems can successfully tie Trump to other GOP candidates. I think a lot of the GOP will actually say they won't vote for him publically, one rep in Florida has already said he'd even be open to voting for Hillary (though in a Dem leaning district).
Then again, maybe Trump will pivot to the left of Hillary, winning minorities, women and blue collar Dems and becoming a great President.
I think the idea is about voter enthusiasm. If Republicans can't be bothered to get out and vote for Trump, they will not be voting for GOP congressional candidates either since it all happens at the same time.
They will try, no doubt, but the fact still remains that they are at a disadvantage funding-wise at states and local levels. Take the recent Kentucky governorship election for example, heading into the last week the Dem candidate was up by 4 points. A million in ads later and voilà! A Mr. Bevin, who is a total moron, became the governor.
I think they will win enough to have their Senate majority back, but it won't be near as sweeping as 08. 14/24 seats is a very tall task, and a 30 seats deficit in the House is daunting as well. Their best hope is to make some gains, the economy does well in the next two years, defend their seats in 2018 and get SCOTUS to repeal Citizen United heading into 2020. Stars will need to align near perfectly for all of that to happen. What will likely happen is that Republicans will win back some Senate and house seats in 2018 and try to obstruct again, get their house in order and coalesce behind Marcobot in 2020.
for strong turnout you need a strong candidate. Hillary is not a strong candidate. To depend on people voting against the other candidate is poor. Hillary is also hated. More than likely people will stay home. This will help the GOP in house and senate races.
So trump is a liberal on disguise and Hillary a republican in disguise? I wouldn't vote for her if she was republican.
This is very true.
Also all very true. I was reading recently that Arkansas had been one of the last areas to feel the full force of the Southern Strategy, as it was such a hard market to reach in ad terms. Then Citizens United happened, and they dedicated a lot of resources to getting the message out to any last remaining outposts. Now, Arkansas is deep red at all levels.
But the fact we can even talk about the House returning to the Dems is pretty amazing on its own.
Best thing for Dem turnout would be for Trump and Hillary to stay neck and neck in the polls right up till the end. Fear. Fear of Trump as President. Regardless of how people feel about Hillary turnout could be helped by fear of Trump
Bernie is killin it in Alaska, Washington, and Oregon so far. Every time Hillary pivots away to Trump thinking she's wrapped up the nomination, he re-emerges to win a few more states.
He'll net about 60 delegates today, maybe more, but after this it's pretty much done with all the small, activist heavy caucus states. Wisconsin on the 5th and then a 3 weeks lull until New York, where she will make it pretty much mathematically impossible for him to win (291 delegates).
Ultimately, it's all a momentum game. If Bernie runs the table today, it will come on the heels of having won Idaho and Utah last week (Hillary won AZ). If then he manages to go on and win Wisconsin and North Dakota in early April, suddenly and despite the delegate count, the conversation changes and Hillary has a lot of questions to answer in NY. What he needs in order to win the nomination is a change in perception about Hillary's electability. In an odd way, Trump's march towards 1,237 has actually hurt Bernie, because its made Hillary appear more electable in a Gen against Trump. As long as that perception stays in place, he won't catch her.
Reports that Bernie has won Alaska and Washington in a landslide.
Momentum is overstated a lot of the time, the results so far have basically swung predictably based on demographics and type of election. Whiter/caucus - tends towards Bernie, diverse/(closed) primary - tends towards Hillary. New York, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Maryland - diverse states with closed primaries in April. If he wins those by a fair whack then something's changed, but today's were pretty expected.
People toe the party line in the GE, and with the likes of hate talk radio and faux news telling women to support the party, women will vote for Trump, pathetic I know.
I just dont like this at all. If its Sanders I'd be more confident of beating either Drumpf or Cruz. But not with Hillary. I feel either of them can beat her.
Not my wife. She can't stand him. I think a lot of women are disgusted with his antics.
I'm constantly surprised by all the reports of voting stations running out of ballots. It happens every time. Surely a law that states there must be a ballot for every eligible voter + 10% extra would fix this? They're pieces of paper for gods sake.
No way. Not getting into who'd be better or who I'd prefer, but Hillary would absolutely crush Trump (not as sure about Cruz). It basically comes down to that Americans are scared shitless about the word "socialist". Might seem silly to the rest of the world, but there's a huge stigma surrounding that word in America. And these aren't all fear-mongering tea party idiots who feel that way, but people with actual intelligence. Was always gonna be a tough ask to get people to look past that.
I see absolutely no reason to think Trump would even come close to beating Hillary.
Well everyone thought he wouldn't make this far either. He has done right? Stranger things have happened this election season.
The Trump bubble is going to burst eventually. Although if George Dubya can get elected.....anyone can.
Trump getting elected would be way more of an upset than Bush. What's shocking about Dubya getting elected? His father was President ffs.
Where do I start? The man has the IQ of a carrot. When I was watching his debate speeches I was constantly laughing that an actual idiot could be elected, almost purely on the virtue of his family name. Luckily for him, and unluckily for the rest of the semi-intelligent world; America is full of just enough dimwits to get him elected. Sadly the same powerful demographics might hold true for Trump.
Polls have Bernie beating Trump and Cruz by a bigger margin compared to Hillary.
The whole misogyny thing would make it virtually impossible for Trump to win I reckon. Being a raving lunatic capitalist pig-dog who doesn't understand politics seems to be working in his favour.
Then he got a second term!
Americans obviously didn't pay any mind to that old saying in Tennessee — I know it's in Texas, probably in Tennessee — that says, fool me once, shame on — shame on you. Fool me — you can't get fooled again.
If Ted Cruz boinked a total of five women - five women having connections to high end politics and cable news to boot - why the feck did he not think this would be exposed during the primaries?
I smell some foul play by the Trumpsters here (directly or indirectly by the top dogs over there), and this must be one of the nastiest republican primaries you'll ever se. The "fun" part of this Trump circus is definitely over.
I smell some foul play by the Trumpsters here (directly or indirectly by the top dogs over there), and this must be one of the nastiest republican primaries you'll ever se. The "fun" part of this Trump circus is definitely over.
Good old Dubya, we really misunderestimated him.
There's no fooling him, for sure.
Why does he appear to have a framed picture of Tony Blair in his office? Maybe it was a really special relationship.
To be fair and balanced though, our current Prime Minister David Cameron left his daughter in a pub, and padlocked his bike to railings by the detachable front wheel and then a few months later padlocked his bike to a bollard so it could just be lifted over, and of course he shoved his cock in a dead pigs mouth in a bid to impress his posh toffy nosed friends at a party. So don't worry, you guys don't have the monopoly of electing feckwits. However, Bush is by far the worst, and you have Palin and Bachmann, and the only person who could possibly trump that trio of twats is of course Trump himself.
America does have a penchant for electing clowns though, that's for sure. Jesse Ventura, Schwarzenegger, Palin, W. Cameron is a feckwit, but he ain't near half as dumb as any of them.
The thing we often forget about the American electorate is how backward and regressive a big portion of them are. For a first world country, they have a staggeringly large number of people without college education, haven't travelled overseas and have no interaction with those from a different racial backgrounds/cultures. A lot of W voters are the God and guns loving crowd who felt he shared their 'values', and it goes without saying most if not all of them fit the descriptions above.
To be fair to Dubya, he came across as somewhat likable in the 2000 primaries, at the very least when compared to Al Gore. And from what I remember he wasn't spouting the same bigoted, batshit nonsense Trump currently is.
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